Current investment tips:
Hong Kong stocks and the Internet continued to rebound, and the correction of A-share yuan universe was large. In the past five trading days, SW media (- 3.3%) outperformed CSI 300 (+ 1.1%) and gem (- 2.7%), Jc Finance & Tax Interconnect Holdings Ltd(002530) , Jishi Media Co.Ltd(601929) led the rise, but Visual China Group Co.Ltd(000681) , Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) fell by more than 10%, and the theme of yuanuniverse was adjusted greatly. In terms of Hong Kong stocks, in the past five trading days, Hang Seng Index (+ 2.4%), Hang Seng Technology (+ 1.8%), meituan (+ 7.9%), JD (+ 6.7%) and Tencent Holdings (+ 3.3%).
Topic 1: what do you think of the sustainability of the Internet rebound in Hong Kong stocks? 1) The short-term financial report and other fundamentals are bad. It has been digested for a long time since November 2021 and gradually recovered in 2022. The text explains in detail the improvement rhythm of community group buying, advertising and pan entertainment. 2) After more than one and a half years of digestion and full release of pessimistic policy expectations, nine departments including the national development and Reform Commission issued several opinions on promoting the standardized, healthy and sustainable development of the platform economy, pointing out the direction for the development of the Internet. What are the new growth points of the Internet in the future? In the medium term, we will look at the sea (mainly social entertainment such as games and short videos), industrial digitization, and in the long term, we will look at innovation such as metauniverse (next generation Internet), unmanned distribution and digital factory. Key targets: Tencent holdings, NetEase, the US group comment (Shen Wan Kwai), quick hands, and beep.
A-share media continue to recommend undervalued white horses that can advance, attack and retreat: Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) . Yuancosmos is a long-term industrial trend. The local government takes a protective attitude. After the general rise of the subject investment, it is not ruled out that there may be short-term fluctuations. It is suggested to focus on more representative application scenarios and typical subjects. With the advent of the foreign financial reporting season, Baima stocks with definite performance improvement and low valuation are the first choice. (1) We released the latest in-depth comments on Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) : revisiting the certainty of the fourth round of rotation – focusing on R & D, category expansion and navigation, and refined and summarized the company’s fourth round of transformation, short-term and long-term growth certainty, sea support and yuancosmic catalysis. (2) Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) tracking: compared with the previous round, the change of focus in this round is reflected in the fact that ladder a media is expected to continuously divert the advertising budget of other brands; After 18-19 years of competition and economic downturn, the company has optimized the structure of advertisers, increased the proportion of daily consumption advertisers to 40%, and nearly half of the e-commerce in the Internet; The company strengthened the construction of middle office and improved the management level; The gap with competitors in high-quality point reserves and cash reserves has further widened.
Tencent Holdings 4q21 Outlook: continue the downturn and look forward to gradual improvement in 22 years. We expect Tencent Holdings 4q21 to achieve revenue of 143.6 billion yuan, yoy + 7% (3q21 yoy + 13%); Non IFRS net profit attributable to parent company is 30.2 billion yuan, yoy-9% (3q21 yoy-2%). 4q21 revenue and profit growth decreased month on month, mainly due to the deferred performance contribution of new game products, greater advertising pressure and decline in revenue; The change of income structure superimposes the continuous investment of new businesses, and the profit margin continues to move downward; It is expected that the pressure on performance growth will gradually ease after 1q22, and we still need to pay attention to the regulatory impact of Internet advertising, Internet Finance and so on.
Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) 2021 performance forecast: due to the industry downturn and the business adjustment of subsidiaries, the 2021 profit forecast is lower than expected, and the short-term expectation is more pessimistic. It is suggested to look at the company’s investment value from the medium-term change of competition pattern. The three subsidiaries of mango film and television, mango entertainment and Shanghai mango mutual entertainment were restructured, and the operation declined during the business integration period. At the same time, mango projects were less scheduled in the fourth quarter (no key variety shows were launched after the broadcasting of brother at the end of October). Some projects were affected by the epidemic. The advertising revenue and operator revenue increased by 30% year-on-year in 21 years, and the advertising business performance was significantly better than that of the industry. At the end of 21 years, mango TV had 50.4 million effective members (a net increase of 14.27 million compared with the beginning of the period), but it is expected that the member arppu may be affected by preferential promotion and other factors. The expectation of regulatory impact has been relatively pessimistic, and the overall competition pattern of long video has evolved to a positive trend. Mango also has a layout in the direction of new technology, and businesses such as virtual human, digital collection and VR are being promoted.
Target: Tencent holdings, Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) , NetEase, Kwai tech, Beijing United Information Technology Co.Ltd(603613) , Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) , Guangzhou Shiyuan Electronic Technology Company Limited(002841) .
Risk tip: the product performance is lower than the expected risk, and the macro-economy is further downward risk.
