In terms of the external environment, in terms of the epidemic situation, the number of new cases per day in the world has exceeded 3 million. Although the mortality remains low, the impact of the epidemic on both supply and demand still exists, which is still an important factor affecting the economy. In terms of economy, the month on month growth rate of - 1.9% of retail sales in the United States in December was much lower than the previous market expectation of - 0.1%, which was partly due to consumers' early purchase behavior due to logistics concerns, which made more shopping demand due to holidays completed in November, which reduced the retail data in December to a certain extent, However, the overall high retail volume still shows the tenacity of U.S. consumption. Even if the University of Michigan consumer expectation index fell slightly, it still did not have a great impact on market sentiment; Over the same period, the utilization rate of industrial capacity in the United States fell slightly to 76.49%, and it is noteworthy whether the recovery of the supply side is coming to an end; In contrast, it is worth looking forward to the recovery of economic prosperity in the euro area. In January, the euro area ZEW Economic Prosperity Index not only rose significantly to 49.4, the highest value since August 2021, but also far exceeded the market expectation of 29.2.
In terms of China's environment, the data for the fourth quarter of 2021 show that the economy is facing great growth pressure. Although the year-on-year growth rate of 4.0% in the current quarter is generally better than the market expectation in recent periods, the situation of insufficient demand is obvious. Specifically, on the production side, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in December is still higher than that in November when the base increases, Mainly due to the effect of price stabilization and supply guarantee measures, the month on month growth rate increased to 0.42%, the highest level in each month in the second half of 2021; While the supply capacity is restored, the shortage of demand, especially domestic demand, is very prominent. On the one hand, the drag of real estate investment is further strengthened. The year-on-year decline of real estate investment in December was significantly expanded to - 13.9%, resulting in the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate investment down 1.6 percentage points to 4.4% compared with November, Although the growth rate of manufacturing industry and infrastructure investment was hedged to some extent, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment still fell to 4.9%. On the other hand, consumer demand weakened significantly. The year-on-year growth rate of social zero in December was only 1.7%, down 2.2 percentage points from November. Although the epidemic disturbance is still to blame, the year-on-year decline of catering revenue in December narrowed, The year-on-year growth rate of commodity retail of 2.3% is also higher than the year-on-year growth rate of social zero of 1.7%. However, the year-on-year growth rate of online retail sales in the same period is only - 0.76%, which has become an important drag factor (this may come from the change of online promotion behavior). Moreover, in the case of weakening economic growth momentum, the suppression of residents' income on consumption is also worthy of attention. Faced with the pressure of "shrinking demand" and "weakening expectation" on steady growth, China's policy regulation responded positively and continued to promote the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates. At the same time, Liu Guoqiang, vice governor of the central bank, pointed out that "stability itself is the greatest" progress ", and its" sufficient force " The expressions of "precise force" and "forward force" undoubtedly show the firm attitude of monetary policy towards maintaining economic stability; At the same time, this week's national standing committee decided to "continue to implement the partially expired tax and fee reduction policies to support enterprise rescue and development". Superimposed on the previous centralized construction of key projects in various regions, we have reason to maintain confidence in steady growth and broad credit. At the same time, we should be more patient.
In terms of high-frequency data, in the downstream, real estate transactions rebounded slightly, and the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index rose slowly. In the middle reaches, steel prices picked up slightly and cement prices continued to decline. Upstream, the price of thermal coal rebounded significantly, the price of coke and coking coal fell somewhat, the price of non-ferrous metals continued to remain strong, among which the prices of aluminum and zinc remained strong, the price of precious metals rebounded, and the price of crude oil reached a new high.
Risk tip: the development of international epidemic situation exceeded expectations
