Key points:
In December China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) , the installed capacity of battery continued to rise
In December 2021, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery installed capacity was 26.2gwh (+ 102%), with a month on month increase of 25.9%; The cumulative installed capacity from January to December 2021 is 154.5gwh (+ 143%). In December, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery installed capacity continued to rise, mainly due to the impulse at the end of the year and the recovery of Tesla sales.
It is normal that the production capacity far exceeds the installed capacity. In December 2021, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery production was 31.6gwh (+ 109%), with a month on month increase of 12.0%; The cumulative production from January to December 2021 is 219.7gwh (+ 163%). Since November, the gap between production and installed capacity has converged, reflecting the de stocking at the end of the year. However, the ratio of production to installed capacity in 2021 is still as high as 1.42, and it is normal that the production far exceeds the installed capacity.
The production of power battery corresponds to the demand for lithium battery materials in the upstream, and the installed capacity of power battery is directly linked to the production and sales of downstream new energy vehicles, which is close to the demand of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market.
Pure electric buses remained weak in 2021, and pure electric special vehicles benefited from policy dividends. The production and sales of pure electric buses and pure electric special vehicles were seriously affected by the epidemic. In 2020, the installed capacity was only 11.8gwh (- 17.5%) and 4.3gwh (- 20.5%), with a significant year-on-year decline. In 2021, the installed capacity of pure electric buses was 9.7gwh (- 17.4%), with slow recovery and weak demand; In 2021, the installed capacity of pure electric special vehicles was 12.2gwh (+ 186%), benefiting from the policy dividend and growing rapidly.
Average charge upward fatigue
In the middle of December 2021, Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicle’s average charged capacity was 48.8 degrees, up from 47.7 degrees last month. However, the average charging capacity of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles rebounded in mid December 2021, mainly driven by the impulse of pure electric buses and pure electric special vehicles at the end of the year. In fact, the average charging capacity of pure electric passenger vehicles in December 2021 was 48.6 degrees, down from 49.4 degrees last month, reflecting the weak upward trend of average charging capacity of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles. It can be imagined that from January 2022, with the decline in the sales of pure electric buses and pure electric special vehicles, the average charging capacity of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will still decline.
The monthly data of average electrification of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles fluctuates greatly due to the structure of installed models in that month. Generally speaking, the average electrification continued to rise from 2018 to 2019, but began to fall from the second half of 2020. It is expected that the average charging capacity is expected to stabilize and rise slightly in 2022.
Investment advice
It is estimated that the installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) batteries will be about 215gwh (+ 39%) and the production capacity will be about 310gwh (+ 41%) in 2022, implying that the forecast for the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in the middle of 2022 is about 5 million (+ 42%). 2022 will still be a year of booming production and sales of power batteries. The industry will grow rapidly, and the performance of relevant listed companies is worth looking forward to. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading companies of power batteries and lithium battery materials. Maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry.
Risk tips
The new energy vehicle industry is greatly affected by the policy and the boom fluctuates violently; Competition in the power battery industry has intensified.
