Whole market valuation and allocation proportion of fund heavy positions
From the perspective of historical valuations of major market indexes (CSI 300 index, SSE 50 index, CSI 500 index and gem index), the valuations of PE, PEG and Pb of CSI 500 index are low at present; From the perspective of the allocation proportion of fund heavy positions, the gem index is at its historical high position, and the CSI 300 index is at its historical low position.
The PE valuations calculated by the overall method and median method of CSI 300 index are 13.16 and 27.04 respectively. Relative to their historical values, the quantile levels are 58.31% and 60.00% respectively; The Pb valuations calculated by the overall method and the median method are 1.45 and 2.97 respectively, which are at the quantile level of 38.14% and 77.97% respectively relative to their historical values; The predicted peg of CSI 300 index from wind database is 0.76, which is at the quantile level of 33.22% relative to its historical valuation; The allocation proportion of heavy positions of the fund was 53.01%, and the quantile level relative to its historical value was 30.43%.
The PE valuations calculated by the overall method and median method of SSE 50 index are 10.92 and 17.39 respectively. Relative to their historical values, the quantile levels are 63.73% and 60.85% respectively; The Pb valuations calculated by the overall method and the median method are 1.23 and 2.39 respectively, which are at the quantile level of 45.76% and 90.17% respectively relative to their historical values; The predicted peg of SSE 50 index from wind database is 0.69, which is at the quantile level of 30.34% relative to its historical valuation; The allocation proportion of heavy positions of the fund was 18.30%, and the quantile level relative to its historical value was 34.78%.
The PE valuations calculated by the overall method and median method of CSI 500 index are 20.87 and 27.04 respectively. Relative to their historical values, the quantile levels are 5.59% and 17.29% respectively; The Pb valuations calculated by the overall method and the median method are 1.96 and 2.12 respectively, which are at the quantile level of 18.14% and 26.61% respectively relative to their historical values; The predicted peg of CSI 500 index from wind database is 0.55, which is at the quantile level of 1.02% relative to its historical valuation; The allocation proportion of heavy positions of the fund is 10.35%, and the quantile level relative to its historical value is 34.78%.
The PE valuations calculated by the overall method and the median method of gem index are 65.62 and 53.97 respectively. Relative to their historical values, the quantile levels are 85.42% and 54.92% respectively; The Pb valuations calculated by the overall method and the median method are 8.29 and 6.59 respectively, which are at the quantile level of 88.64% and 77.97% respectively relative to their historical values; The gem index from wind database predicts that peg is 2.16, which is at the quantile level of 97.80% relative to its historical valuation; The allocation proportion of heavy position stocks of the fund is 18.33%, and the quantile level relative to its historical value is 95.65%.
Valuation of various industries and allocation proportion of fund heavy positions
Among CITIC’s primary industries, the PE valuation of non bank finance, banking, petroleum and petrochemical industries is at a historically low position, with PE of 14.44, 5.35 and 11.45 respectively, and the quantiles relative to their historical values are 4.59%, 8.36% and 8.69% respectively; The PE valuation of commercial retail, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and automobile industries is at a historical high, with PE of 139.40, -655.16 and 47.58 respectively, and the quantiles relative to their historical values are 99.67%, 99.51% and 97.54% respectively.
Among CITIC’s primary industries, the Pb valuation of banking, non banking finance and real estate industries is at a historically low position, with Pb of 0.55, 1.40 and 0.98 respectively, and the quantiles relative to their historical values are 0.33%, 0.82% and 1.64% respectively; The Pb valuation of power equipment, new energy, food and beverage and electronics industries is at a historical high, with Pb of 5.29, 9.02 and 5.28 respectively, and the quantiles relative to their historical values are 90.98%, 89.84% and 88.52% respectively.
The fund’s allocation proportion of heavy warehouse shares in the basic chemical industry, non-ferrous metals, power equipment and new energy industries is at an all-time high, with the shareholding ratio of 7.33%, 4.46% and 15.36% respectively, and the quantiles relative to its historical value are 100.00%, 100.00% and 100.00% respectively; The allocation proportion of heavy warehouse shares in household appliances, real estate and non bank financial industries is at a historical low, with their shareholding ratios of 1.41%, 1.21% and 0.90% respectively, and the quantiles relative to their historical values are 2.08%, 4.17% and 4.17% respectively.
Risk warning: This report is for market situation monitoring and does not constitute investment suggestions.
