Key investment points:
The changes of power consumption side and power generation side and the lagging development of power grid side are the main reasons for the limited consumption of new energy power generation.
With the large-scale grid connection of new energy power generation and the change of power consumption structure, the demand for flexible regulation on both sides of power generation and consumption increases and the lack of supporting facilities on the grid side brings potential safety hazards to the power system. The change of power consumption side is mainly reflected in the gradual increase of peak valley difference rate of power load; The main problems at the power generation side are that the inherent randomness, fluctuation and intermittence of new energy power generation output lead to the decrease of system moment of inertia and the increase of peak and frequency regulation pressure; The main problems on the grid side are: first, the long-distance transmission capacity still needs to be improved; second, the development of flexible regulation resources lags behind. The problems of power consumption side, power generation side and power grid side together lead to the limited consumption capacity of new energy power generation, which leads to two important directions to solve the consumption of new energy: one is to increase flexible power supply, and the other is to configure energy storage.
The demand range of electrochemical energy storage capacity in 2025 and 2030 is 111gwh ~ 141gwh and 686gwh ~ 731gwh respectively.
In response to the challenges of frequency modulation and peak shaving brought by new energy consumption in the future, there is a large space for energy storage. To solve the problem of new energy consumption, we need to start with peak shaving and frequency modulation. The power gap and capacity gap of peak shaving in China are estimated. The power demand of peak shaving electrochemical energy storage in 2025 is about 45.9gw, and the capacity demand is about 111gwh, and the capacity demand in 2030 is about 686gwh.
The demand for FM energy storage will be about 30gwh in 2025 and 45gwh in 2030. Considering that the sharing of frequency modulation and peak shaving is not clear, the interval prediction of electrochemical energy storage demand is carried out. The minimum value of the interval is the full sharing of peak shaving and frequency modulation energy storage, which is equal to the electrochemical energy storage capacity demand of peak shaving; The maximum value in the interval is that peak shaving and frequency modulation energy storage are completely not shared, that is, peak shaving electrochemical energy storage capacity demand plus frequency modulation electrochemical energy storage capacity demand. We predict that the demand range of electrochemical energy storage capacity will be 111gwh ~ 141gwh in 2025 and 686gwh ~ 731gwh in 2030.
Investment suggestions with the increasing proportion of wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity, the demand for peak shaving and frequency modulation of power grid is becoming increasingly prominent. Electrochemical energy storage, as an important technology to fill the gap of peak shaving and frequency modulation, will open a golden track for ten years. Based on this, we give the industry "recommended" rating. For specific targets, it is recommended to focus on: (1) lithium battery link: the energy storage market demand is determined, and the leading enterprises [ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ], [ Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) ] of lithium iron phosphate battery and [ Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) ] of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials benefiting from the expected growth of electrochemical energy storage; (2) Energy storage converter: energy storage converter related enterprises [ Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) ], [ Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) ], [ Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) ], [ Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ] and [ Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) ], which are one of the main components of energy storage system cost; (3) Energy storage and temperature control: there is a strong demand for large-scale electrochemical energy storage and temperature control, which is conducive to the leading enterprises of precision equipment temperature control [ Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) ] and [ Sanhe Tongfei Refrigeration Co.Ltd(300990) ]; (4) Fire protection system: electrochemical energy storage has high safety requirements, which is good for fire alarm enterprises [ Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) ].
Risk Tips 1) policy changes related to energy storage; 2) The development of new energy power generation is less than expected; 3) Peak shaving technology innovation; 4) The cost of electrochemical energy storage decreased less than expected; 5) Flexible transformation of coal power and new installed capacity of gas power exceeded expectations; 6) Focus on the company's performance less than expected; 7) Model assumptions may differ from the actual situation.
