host Yin Xing
focus on the impact of US bonds on the A-share market
Moderator: the research topic of boating this week is relatively large, mainly about the impact of US debt on the A-share market. The research experience is also disclosed in this column?
boating: US bond yield is currently one of the important reference standards for the constant asset price of global mainstream funds. At the end of 2018, it fell all the way from around 3% to about 0.5% in 2020, and the world's major stock indexes rose to varying degrees. Then, in early 2021, it rose to about 1.5%, the core assets of A-Shares fluctuated widely, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indexes fell so far.
host: it seems that the yield of US bonds has reached 1.9% recently.
boating: yes, this wave rose slowly from 1.4% last November to 1.9% at the beginning of this year. Directly return SSE 50 to the platform and break the long-term trend of gem.
host: why?
boating: U.S. debt is almost the anchor of global risk-free return. The valuation of emerging markets, especially growth stocks, shows a reverse relationship with their yield. In other words, if the yield of U.S. debt shows a trend of rising, the valuation of growth stocks in emerging markets will be suppressed. On the contrary, risk appetite will improve and valuation will expand.
host: there are two questions. First, will U.S. stocks not be affected? Second, have we not been slowly beating out our combined fist of stability maintenance policy?
boating: U.S. stocks will also be affected in the short term, especially growth stocks. This time, we can see the clue from the largest decline of the NASDAQ. However, in the future, the Fed is expected to continue to raise interest rates or even shrink the table, the yield of US bonds will rise again, and global funds will flow back to the United States, so the medium-term impact is not large. Second, our tenacity is certainly much stronger than that of other emerging markets. On the one hand, the combination of steady growth has not been completed; On the other hand, with the continuous increase of our economic volume and the gradual shift to high-quality development, structural opportunities are becoming more and more obvious. In the history of a shares, several sharp fluctuations of the index occurred in the internal and external tight environment, the last two being 2015 and 2018. But this time we are obviously oriented wide and slightly loose as a whole. In this way, there will be structural opportunities for the targeted wide sector, such as new infrastructure. However, for the carbon neutralization with rapid valuation expansion in the previous two years, it is affected by the rise of US bond yield. The impact level is the same as that of last year's consumption core assets, that is, the stock price volatility of leading companies in the sector is relatively small, and enterprises that can improve product penetration through technical iteration can even reach a new high after stock price adjustment. But for most companies whose market value has been over expanded and profits have been unable to follow up due to the theme in the first two years, the focus of this round is to kill them.
Moderator: I see. In other words, with the main tone of our strong and stable development, we will be less and less affected by the periphery. This adjustment has the greatest impact on the concept stocks that increased too much in the previous two years. The decline of good companies is an investment opportunity.
boating: it can be understood that the gem index will fluctuate in the short and medium term, and the SSE 50 is relatively the strongest. At the same time, the Hong Kong market will also usher in the return of the average due to the unilateral decline last year. Investors should make the layout, the transaction and the market are not short of money, and there are too many short-term opportunities.
how to understand the strength of undervalued blue chips
host: this week, the central bank cut interest rates, financial and real estate forces, the market withstood the adjustment pressure of overseas markets, and the signs of "push ups" are obvious. What do you think of the central bank's interest rate cut?
the sea breeze is like rain: the leaders of the central bank said "open the monetary policy toolbox a little larger", and then lowered the LPR, obviously for "stable growth". It is estimated that the RRR will keep up soon, and the policy intention is very obvious.
host: the market doesn't seem to appreciate it. When it comes to financial real estate, individual stocks fall more or rise less. What problem does this reflect?
the sea breeze is like rain: first, in most cases, the market bottom lags behind the policy bottom. For example, in the fourth quarter of 2018, the policy has been put into force, but the delay did not reach the bottom of 2440 points until early January 2019. During the epidemic period in January 2020, the policy was strengthened and the easing signal was released, but the market lagged until the bottom of 2646 points in late March. Secondly, the current situation of China's water release + overseas water collection is inconsistent with the global synchronous easing in 2020. It is also different from China's interest rate collection + overseas QE2 water release in 2011. It is somewhat similar to the environment of China's interest rate and reserve requirement reduction + overseas interest rate increase in 2014. As we all know, a round of leveraged bull market has been formed after the interest rate cut in 2014-2015, and the initiator of that round of leveraged bull market is the major financial sectors such as securities companies. We all know that another round of leveraged bull is impossible, but judging from the overall environment, the process of "stable growth" in 2014 is also a process from doubt to hesitation and then to belief. The same is true for the current market. There is still a process from the current wide currency to the future wide credit. This process reflects the evolution of the market from divergence to consistency.
host: how to understand the strength of undervalued blue chips such as finance?
the sea breeze is like rain: the market is generally understood as style switching. Of course, it is "selling eight to buy two", which naturally leads to a serious imbalance in the rise and fall ratio of the market. I believe that the strength of blue chips is not style switching, but should be understood as "mean return". In the fourth quarter of 2021, there has been a "high-low switching" in the market, such as pig cycle and online game yuanuniverse. These are the oversold sectors in 2021. At that time, we defined them as "too bad to be worse". Don't financial real estate also belong to the oversold sectors in 2021? When the pig cycle rises, no one says it is a style switch. Can it be regarded as a style switch as soon as the financial real estate rises? In fact, the US bond yield is not false, but the ceiling can also be seen, that is, about 2%. China's treasury bond yield is in a downward trend. The current 2.7% is close to the water level in May 2020 (the historical minimum is 2.5% in April 2020). The normal logic is that the Treasury bond yield represents the denominator of the market, and the yield goes down. It should improve the market risk appetite, which is conducive to the performance of growth stocks. Therefore, the trend of financial and real estate undervalued varieties more reflects the policy intention of steady growth and the mean return after oversold, rather than the signal of style switching. The space and strength of policy "steady growth" should belong to the type of "supporting but not lifting", which can not fundamentally change the market style.
another sustainable sector appears
host: the index fell continuously this week, which made many people feel afraid, but the hot sun began to say that the digital currency continues to be popular since the end of November, and the leading varieties are in a mess. What do you think of this sector? Is it high?
scorching sun: the adjustment of the index is inevitable. We have analyzed it many times before, so we won't talk about it much. However, it is clear that China's monetary policy remains loose, which shows that we have a policy bottom, so the structural sector will be very wonderful this year. Digital currency we have made it clear many times in advance that it will rise in the main wave this month. Once the periodic leaders of the sector are adjusted, it may lead to a certain shock, but the trend remains unchanged. Moreover, many core high-quality varieties are superimposed with the concept of digital economy, which is more conducive to maintaining a sustained strength. At this stage, theme stocks will continue to be excavated.
host: digital economy is undoubtedly the biggest theme of this week?
scorching sun: This should be another sustainable sector after digital currency. Most of the stocks in the sector are at the low level of technology. The data centers, big data, software, cloud computing, smart city, financial technology, blockchain, etc. in the sector are all things that capital likes, which is very suitable for continuous speculation by institutions and hot money.
host: traditional Chinese medicine, as you said, sure enough, the sector shrinkage immediately continued to decline. Can you still be optimistic about the midline trend?
scorching sun: of course. The decline of this technical structure is normal. The K line should suppress the next 4 ~ 5 weeks. Overall opportunities can be paid attention to again after 4 ~ 5 weeks.
host: for lithium photovoltaic, you continued to be bearish against most analysis in the early months. It has fallen a lot now.
scorching sun: many people in the upstream of lithium mine are optimistic, but don't forget that the development of lithium resources is also accelerated worldwide. The price of lithium will come down for up to one year, so I don't think there is any logic for the rise of lithium price to promote the rise of share price. Similarly, for photovoltaic, the decline of silicon materials in the upstream is inevitable. The expansion of production in the middle reaches is serious and the competition is fierce. Therefore, it is difficult to see a better logic to promote the rise of stock prices in the upper and middle reaches. In fact, it's best for the downstream power station, so I think it's better to only look for opportunities in the downstream power station. In fact, this one is integrated with green power. Green power has been optimistic about the long-term market for a long time. We also said that there will be many ups and downs in the middle, but it must be an upward trend in the long term.
