This week, the Shanghai index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 0.86% and the gem index fell 2.72%. How to go in the future market of a shares? Look at what the agency says:
① Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : “the bottom of the market” is approaching, and the layout of “two low” blue chip
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the “policy bottom” is clear, the “emotional bottom” is coming, and the “market bottom” is gradually approaching. It is suggested to continue to focus on the “two low” layout of blue chips to meet the starting point of the market in the first half of the year.
Specifically: (1) for the varieties whose fundamentals are expected to remain low, focus on the midstream manufacturing suppressed by cost problems in the early stage, such as vehicle, lithium battery cell, photovoltaic equipment, etc., and the tax-free and entertainment content consumption whose fundamentals are expected to remain low; (2) For the varieties whose valuation is still relatively low, it is recommended to pay attention to the high-quality developers, building materials and home furnishing enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, the Internet leaders of Hong Kong stocks after the impact of medium concept stocks, and the fine chemical enterprises with the ability to develop new businesses such as new materials.
② China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : “steady growth” is still the main line of the future stage
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that the “emotional bottom” may appear from the near future to the early part of the first quarter, while the “growth bottom” is expected to appear from the first quarter to the second quarter. “Steady growth” is still the main line of the future stage, and the space for sharp decline in the growth style may be relatively limited, but it may not be in a hurry to copy the bottom, and the “steady growth” style may last until about the end of the first quarter.
In terms of industry allocation, (1) areas potentially supported by marginal changes or forces of policies, including infrastructure, industrial chains related to stable demand for real estate, potential areas of consumption support, securities companies, etc; (2) The middle and lower reaches consumption that has been adjusted this year, the valuation is not high, and the medium and long-term prospects are still clear, including household appliances, light industrial homes, automobiles and parts, the Internet and media; (3) The short-term share price of the manufacturing growth sector with a large increase last year may be restrained, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors. The potential turnaround depends on the change of market style again. The potential time point may be at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter.
③ Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) : the midline continues to focus on the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) believes that after new year’s day, major institutions have changed positions and shares. Industries and individual stocks with large cumulative increase in the early stage and high overall valuation have been sold off. The undervalued financial industry and some defense industries have become the main direction of capital flow in the near future.
It is suggested to pay close attention to the changes in policy, capital and external market. It is expected that the Shanghai index is more likely to fluctuate slightly around the annual line in the short term, and the gem is more likely to decline slightly in the short term. It is suggested that investors should wait and see for a short time, and the middle line should continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips.
④ Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) : negative expectations are accelerating digestion
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) pointed out that overseas, although high interest rates will negatively suppress the equity market, the rise of low US bond interest rates will not have a severe impact on the valuation of US stocks, resulting in relatively limited risk transmission of “US stocks → A shares”. At the same time, China is still in the window period of monetary policy easing, and the central bank actively “moves forward”. With the comprehensive reduction of reserve requirements in December and the reduction of MLF and LPR interest rates in January, the momentum of “steady growth” is further consolidated, and the negative expectations are accelerating to digest.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) at the same time, it is pointed out that the acceleration of capacity deregulation will be carried out after the Spring Festival. It is reiterated that “the second wave has been started”, “the first quarter of 2022 is the gold allocation period” and “the first half of 2022 is better than the second half of 2022”. The judgment of sector reversal in the early stage is maintained, and the expected improvement of pig cycle reversal will continue to accelerate.
⑤ Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : the spring market will not be absent, and the value growth is expected to appear in turn
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) pointed out that this round of spring market will not be absent. In addition to loose policies, another basis of the spring market is that the capital interest rate usually fell at the beginning of the year. At the beginning of the year, investors’ risk appetite is relatively higher, there are more new funds issued, and the micro capital of the stock market is abundant. Steady growth in the early stage of the spring market, the value sector usually rises first, and the later growth sector will accelerate the rise, showing an obvious characteristic of value growth rotation.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) believes that the current round of spring market is still in the early stage, the recent value sector has performed, and the upward trend has not ended, and the later growth sector is expected to follow the rise. In terms of industry selection, we should balance the allocation of value and growth, and focus on large finance and new infrastructure benefiting from policies.
