At the beginning of this year and last year, there were some adjustments in the market. The overvaluation of popular tracks and the adjustment of overseas markets can partly explain the two adjustments. However, last year’s concern about the tightening of monetary policy was the core reason, while this year’s adjustment was due to weak fundamentals and the overestimation of the core track. Looking forward to the follow-up, the landing of interest rate increase, the marginal improvement of economic data or further stimulus policies may end the adjustment of the market stage by stage, but a new round of upward market may occur in the third quarter when corporate profits improve. This year, it is suggested to pay attention to the “depression strategy”.
core view
[guance · on the city] what are the similarities and differences between the decline at the beginning of this year and last year? at the beginning of last year and the beginning of this year, there were obvious adjustments in the market. The characteristics of the adjustment are that the track that rose sharply in the early stage fell significantly, and the market tends to underestimate the value sector layout in stages. From the reasons of market adjustment, both adjustments are due to: (1) high valuation of popular tracks and crowded transactions. (2) The yield of ten-year US bonds rose and US stocks fell sharply, driving the adjustment of a shares. however, the core reasons for the two adjustments are different: the core reason for the market adjustment at the beginning of 2021 is the concern about the tightening of the central bank’s monetary policy, and the subsequent refutation of the central bank’s rumors about the tightening of monetary policy and strong fundamentals jointly promoted the stabilization of a shares. At present, concerns about economic fundamentals and the lack of sectors with high valuation and cost performance are the core factors hindering the upward market. compared with the current situation, we think the signals of recent market stabilization may be as follows: (1) there is no further hawkish speech at the January interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve next week. (2) In January, the economic data and financial data stabilized, and the steady growth policy gradually played a role. (3) The economic data again fell short of expectations, the policy ushered in further easing, and the market’s expectations for the future economy improved. in the long run, we believe that the continuous stabilization of A-Shares may occur in the third quarter of this year. With the steady growth, the growth rate of corporate profits began to rise. overall, we believe that the traditional steady growth undervalued direction represented by financial, real estate and building materials will lead to a phased style drift of 2-4 quarters of the larger market value. In addition to the valuation and repair market in traditional fields, the direction of steady growth should also focus on the undervalued sectors in new infrastructure (new energy infrastructure and digital infrastructure). This year, investors can focus on using the “depression strategy” and pay more attention to the depressions with low allocation and low expected undervalued value.
The main reasons for [resumption of trading · internal view] the A-share market index rose or fell by half this week and the style differentiation are as follows: 1) the overseas market fell greatly under the expectation of interest rate increase, which significantly suppressed the growth stocks; 2) Some investors choose to reduce their positions before the Spring Festival; 3) Under the accelerated decline of profits, the disturbance of liquidity expectations and China’s stable growth expectations, some investors switched game styles and tracks, and the growth sector and stable growth sector rotated with each other, resulting in fluctuations.
[meso · boom] in December, the year-on-year growth of Smartphone Production expanded, and the year-on-year growth of integrated circuit production narrowed; 12 the revenue of platform stock IC design, IC manufacturing, memory, silicon wafer, PCB, led and other manufacturers continued to rise year-on-year, and the revenue of some panel and lens manufacturers decreased year-on-year. In December, the year-on-year growth of metal cutting machine tool output expanded, and the year-on-year growth of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output narrowed. From January to December, the year-on-year growth of housing completed area, commercial housing sales, commercial housing sales area, development investment completed amount and cumulative value of development fund sources narrowed, and the cumulative year-on-year decline of housing newly started area expanded. This week, billet, rebar and iron ore prices rose, coke and coking coal futures prices fell, and power coal futures prices rose.
[capital · numerous and few] the appreciation of RMB drives the large-scale inflow of foreign capital and the outflow of leveraged funds. RMB appreciation led to a net inflow of 29.2 billion yuan this week; The net outflow of financing funds in the first four trading days was RMB 12.45 billion; 25.38 billion partial equity public funds were newly established, up from the previous period; ETF continued its net subscription, corresponding to a net inflow of RMB 12.9 billion. In terms of industry preference, banks, non bank finance, chemical industry, etc. have more net purchases of northbound funds; The net inflow of financing funds is more for computers, media, military industry, etc; There are more applications for pharmaceutical ETFs and more redemptions of securities companies. The net reduction of major shareholders in the secondary market decreased, and the planned reduction decreased slightly.
[theme · wind direction] industrial observation this week – Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) enter the power exchange market and pay attention to the acceleration of power exchange industrialization. The accelerated layout of battery giants such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is expected to solve the standardization problem of the power exchange industry. The policy continues to increase the support for the power exchange mode. It is suggested to pay attention to the acceleration of power exchange industrialization.
[data · valuation] the valuation level of all A-Shares this week was lower than that of last week, PE (TTM) fell 0.1X to 16.0x, in the quantile of 49.5% of the historical valuation level. The valuation of the sector was divided. Among them, the valuation of the computer and food and beverage sectors rose more, and the national defense and military industry sector fell significantly.
[risk tip] the policy strength is lower than expected, the Fed’s interest rate increase policy is higher than expected, and the macroeconomic fluctuation
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on strategy and market — what are the similarities and differences between the decline at the beginning of this year and last year?
Since the beginning of the year, the A-share market has fluctuated greatly, and the broad-based indexes have fallen to varying degrees, especially the track with good performance in the early stage. After the Spring Festival last year, A-Shares also made significant adjustments. This week, we compared the similarities and differences between the decline at the beginning of this year and last year, so as to provide reference for the rhythm of this decline and the choice of subsequent markets.
※ adjustment time, structure and amplitude
Before the Spring Festival last year, driven by the larger than expected scale of the new development fund, the Mao index market ushered in a climax. After the festival, the market style changed suddenly, the main broad-based index fell sharply, and the market entered the adjustment for 15 trading days. During this period, the Wande all a index fell by 9.9%. In terms of broad-based index, the gem index has the deepest decline. In terms of style, the market growth style has the deepest decline, while the value style has a smaller decline. In the industry, food and beverage, power equipment, medicine and biology, beauty care, social services and other industries with large early growth decreased significantly.
Since the beginning of this year, the market has also entered the adjustment. At present, the adjustment range of Wande a has reached 4.7%, and the adjustment time has reached 14 trading days. In terms of broad-based index, the growth enterprise market index and CSI 1000 index decreased significantly, the growth style entered the adjustment, and the decline of value style was relatively small. In the industry, the military industry, power equipment, beauty care, medicine, biology and electronics industries decreased significantly.
from the characteristics of the adjustment, the sectors with the largest adjustment range are those with large increase in the early stage, and during the two adjustments, investors choose the value sector for layout.
※ reason for adjustment
one thing in common: the valuation of popular tracks is too high
Since 2017, the scale of northbound funds and public funds has been expanding. Both types of funds prefer leading enterprises, creating the market of “Mao index”. After the beginning of 2021, the issuance of public funds was accelerated, and the concentration of public funds was accelerated, which further strengthened this style. It can be seen that at the beginning of 2021, the valuation of the 100 heavyweight stocks actively raised by partial public offering has exceeded the consensus expected valuation in 2021, and the valuation is indeed high.
In 2021, the new energy sector also experienced a sharp rise. The valuation of the new energy index was once as high as 50 times. By the end of 2021, the valuation of the new energy index is still 45 times, and the overall valuation is also too expensive.
same point 2: the overseas market adjusted and the yield of US bonds rose, driving the A-share adjustment
At the end of last year, with the successful research and development of covid-19 vaccine by Pfizer and other pharmaceutical companies, the world began to vaccinate covid-19 vaccine. The market’s expectations of future economic recovery and rising inflation became stronger and stronger, and the US bond yield once climbed to 1.7%. At the same time, the market’s expectation of the Federal Reserve taper is rising, and the US stocks are in adjustment, which drives the adjustment of A-Shares to a certain extent. However, with the Fed’s repeated statement that inflation is only temporary and the delta virus sweeping the world, the future economic outlook has become uncertain again, the US bond yield has returned to the level of about 0.7%, and US stocks have resumed their rise.
since the beginning of this year, the same script has been staged in overseas markets. the expectation of raising interest rates in overseas markets has heated up recently. The minutes of the interest rate meeting in December showed that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates at least three times this year and began to discuss the possibility of shrinking the table. The yield of US bonds recently climbed to more than 1.8%, which put pressure on global risk assets again, and US stocks showed obvious adjustment, which led to the adjustment of A-Shares to a certain extent.
However, the difference between the two adjustments is that the Fed’s monetary policy is expected to tighten at the beginning of 2021, while the Fed’s monetary policy has made a real turn at the beginning of this year. The number and intensity of interest rate increases in 2022 have become a risk factor that can not be ignored in global risk assets. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting will be held in January next week. It is possible to discuss the number, rhythm and intensity of interest rate increases in 2022 and give some hints. With the market incorporating relevant information into the expectation, the suppression of interest rate hike expectation on the market may come to an end.
differences: China’s economic environment and the central bank’s monetary policy orientation
At the beginning of 2021, China’s economy is in a recovery period, the market is more optimistic about the future economy, and the core factor affecting the market is monetary policy. In fact, the core factor leading to the market decline at that time was the concern about the tightening of the central bank’s monetary policy. The central economic work conference in December 2020 made a judgment on the economy that “China’s economic operation has gradually returned to normal”, emphasizing the need to “scientifically and accurately implement macro policies”, which shows more the tendency of normalization and accuracy of macro policies. At the end of January, there were even rumors that the central bank raised the MLF interest rate, which showed that investors were worried about the central bank tightening monetary policy at that time.
the current monetary policy is relatively loose, and economic fundamentals are the core factor concerned by the market. Since October last year, China’s economic fundamentals have weakened. The central economic work conference at the end of 2021 made a judgment on the current economy of “demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation”. Since December last year, the central bank has lowered the reserve requirement once, reducing the one-year MLF interest rate by 10bp, the one-year LPR interest rate by 15bp and the five-year LPR interest rate by 5bp, showing the loose orientation of the current monetary policy.
however, the current market is more worried about economic fundamentals. in 2022, facing the macro background of weakening exports and difficult consumption, investors put more hope on the pull of investment on the economy. At present, on the one hand, although the strict supervision policy of real estate has been relaxed marginally, there has been no significant change. The market is worried that the weakening of real estate sales will have a great negative impact on the economy this year. On the other hand, although the policy has obvious support for infrastructure, the infrastructure investment and medium and long-term financing data have not improved significantly, and the market also has some doubts about the strength of infrastructure policy. This makes the market more worried about the economic downturn this year.
※ stabilized signal and adjusted selection
At the end of March last year, with the Fed’s repeated dove statements, US bond yields gradually declined and US stocks resumed their upward trend. A shares have been trading sideways until mid April. At that time, China’s exports continued to exceed expectations driven by overseas economic recovery. At the same time, the completion of real estate was accelerated, and the fundamentals of A-Shares were relatively strong. In early April, with the gradual disclosure of the first quarterly report of a shares, the overall performance was good. Investors found that many targets with PEG less than 1 and good industrial trend could be arranged. At the same time, when the 14th five year plan was released, double carbon was emphasized by the policy again and again. with the clear industrial trend and policy support, new energy and electric vehicles have become the choices after risk avoidance in the market, and dominated the track market in 2021. It can be said that strong fundamentals + clear industrial trends are the core driving force for market stabilization in early 2021.
different from the end of 2021, the current fundamentals are not strong, and there are not many sectors with high valuation and cost performance that can be arranged. Therefore, the sustained stabilization and recovery of the market may need to wait further.
In the short term, we believe that the signals of subsequent market periodic stabilization may be as follows: (1) next week’s fed interest rate meeting is in line with the current market expectation (i.e. three interest rate increases in 2022). Without further hawkish remarks, the suppression of interest rate increase expectation on global risk assets will come to an end temporarily, and the track may usher in a certain rebound. However, this state may not last long. China’s weak economic fundamentals and the overestimation of the core track are still important constraints on the current A shares. (2) With the disclosure of economic data and financial data in January, the steady growth policy gradually plays a role, and the investment or financing data stabilize, the market’s concerns about the economic downturn in 2022 will be alleviated periodically. Under such expectations, the market may further layout along the steady growth sector. (3) The economic data is again lower than expected, the downward pressure on the economy is further revealed, and the policy ushers in further easing, including monetary policy and real estate regulatory policy, the market’s expectation of the future economy is improved, and the market is arranged along the direction of policy support.
in the long run, we expect the real stabilization of A-Shares to occur from the end of the second quarter to the third quarter of this year. the growth cycle of China’s new social finance is basically about 40 months, which we call “credit cycle” or “financial cycle”. we marked the time when the new social finance growth rate changed from negative to positive in the timeline, which occurred in September 2005, December 2008, June 2012, September 2015 and January 2019 respectively.
The profit growth of industrial enterprises has ushered in an upward turning point. in this case, the essence of A-Shares still reflects the change of profits, before and after social finance becomes positive, A-Shares often usher in an inflection point and enter an upward cycle of about two and a half years. This is also one of the core reasons for the three-and-a-half-year operation law of a shares.
The bottom of the market brought by the social finance downturn is rising with the increase of the profit scale of a shares. This rising center constitutes the long-term value line of a shares. Finally, A-Shares can achieve an annualized return of about 12.5% due to the profit growth. Near the value line is also the best time to add positions to a shares.
If according to the credit cycle of about three and a half years and 40 months, the new social finance from June to July 2022 may be positive again, A-Shares will usher in a new round of upward cycle of profit growth around the third quarter. according to this law, A-Shares will maintain the trend of stability in the front and high in the back in 2022. Similar to “√”.
※ summary
At the beginning of last year and the beginning of this year, there were obvious adjustments in the market. The characteristics of the adjustment are that the track that rose sharply in the early stage fell significantly, and the market phased to the layout of the value sector that underestimated the value. In terms of the reasons for the market adjustment, the same reasons for the two adjustments are: (1) the valuation of popular tracks (Mao index in early 2021 and current new energy) is high, the transaction is crowded and there is a certain adjustment demand. (2) The yield of ten-year U.S. bonds accelerated and the U.S. stock market fell sharply, leading to a certain adjustment of a shares. however, the core reasons leading to the two adjustments are quite different: the core reason leading to the market adjustment in early 2021 is the concern about the tightening of the central bank’s monetary policy, and the subsequent refutation of the central bank’s rumors about the tightening of monetary policy and strong fundamentals jointly promoted the stabilization of a shares. At present, monetary policy is in a loose cycle. Concerns about economic fundamentals and the lack of sectors with high valuation and cost performance are the core factors hindering the upward market.
at the beginning of 2021, with the performance disclosure of the first quarterly report, the market gradually stabilized and began to layout to the new energy sector along the idea of PEG stock selection. In the short term, we believe that the signals of market stabilization may be as follows: (1) the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in January next week is in line with the current market expectations (i.e. three interest rate increases in 2022). If there is no further hawkish speech, the suppression of interest rate increase expectations on global risk assets will come to an end temporarily, and the track may usher in a certain rebound. However, this state may not last long. China’s weak economic fundamentals are still an important constraint on the current A shares. (2) With the disclosure of economic data and financial data in January, the steady growth policy gradually plays a role, and the investment or financing data stabilize, the market’s concerns about the economic downturn in 2022 will be alleviated periodically. (3) The economic data is again lower than expected, the downward pressure on the economy is further revealed, and the policy ushers in further easing, including monetary policy and real estate regulatory policy, the market’s expectation of the future economy is improved, and the market is partially along the direction of policy support.
Looking forward to the whole year, we maintain the view that A shares are stable before rising and the trend trend of the whole year is similar to “√”. 2022 may be the year when the steady growth policy is launched. After the second quarter, A-Shares may start a new upward cycle. During the year, the traditional steady growth undervalued direction represented by financial, real estate and building materials will bring a phased style drift of large market value 2-4 quarters. however, the style differentiation is less obvious than in the past few years. In addition to the valuation and repair market in traditional fields, the direction of steady growth should also focus on the undervalued sectors in new infrastructure (new energy infrastructure and digital infrastructure). this year, investors can focus on using the “depression strategy”, pay more attention to the depression with low allocation and low expected undervalued value, “undervalued value + transformation” may also be an important idea for stock selection.
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resumption of trading · Introspection – half rise and half fall, style differentiation
This week, the main market indexes of A-Shares rose and fell by half, with significant style differentiation, and the overall medium and large market style. Among them, the large market value, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and consumer leading index rose first, while the growth of China Stock Exchange 1000, gem index and small market fell significantly. From the perspective of transaction, the average transaction on Sunday was 1098.1 billion yuan, and the average daily transaction was the same as last week. The net inflow of southbound funds into Hong Kong shares this week was HK $12.843 billion, and the net inflow of northbound funds into A-Shares this week was RMB 29.197 billion.
This week’s A-share market index rose and fell by half. The main reasons for the style differentiation are as follows: 1) the overseas market fell greatly under the expectation of interest rate increase. Chinese investors worried that the interest rate increase would suppress the valuation of growth stocks, so they threw out the growth and small and medium market capitalization sectors; 2) The Spring Festival is coming, and some investors choose to reduce their positions before the festival to avoid risks; 3) Under the accelerated decline of profits, the disturbance of liquidity expectations and China’s stable growth expectations, some investors switched game styles and tracks, and the growth sector and stable growth sector rotated with each other, resulting in market fluctuations.
In terms of industry style, in terms of industry style, computer, banking, food and beverage industries ranked first in the industry index, and the industries with the highest decline were pharmaceutical biology, national defense and military industry and basic chemical industry. In terms of the reasons for the rise and fall, the sharp rise of the computer industry was mainly due to the publication of the general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, President of the state An important article by the chairman of the Central Military Commission Xi Jinping entitled “constantly strengthening, optimizing and expanding China’s digital economy”. The paper points out that developing digital economy is a strategic choice to grasp the new opportunities of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial reform. The healthy development of digital economy is conducive to promoting the construction of a new development pattern, a modern economic system and a new national competitive advantage. Since the beginning of the year, many places, including Shanghai and Zhejiang, have also increased their deployment to promote the development of digital economy. The main reason for the sharp rise of the banking sector is that the low valuation and the decline of market risk appetite bring safe haven funds. In addition, the expectation of stabilizing economic policy and the recent interest rate cut by the central bank are good for banks. Among the industries with the highest decline, pharmaceutical biology belongs to the callback demand after the catalytic increase of covid-19 drugs and testing in the early stage. In addition, individual enterprises were collected again this week, and the sentiment of the sector was impacted.
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meso · boom – the year-on-year growth of Smartphone Production expanded in December, and the year-on-year growth of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) production narrowed
in December, the output of smart phones increased year-on-year. according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, China’s Smartphone Production in December was 136 million units, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared with November.
in December, the year-on-year increase in IC output narrowed. according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the output of integrated circuits in China in December was 29.9 billion pieces, an increase of 1.9% year-on-year, 10 percentage points lower than that in November.
Recently, Taiwan stock Electronics announced its revenue in December. The revenue of IC design, IC manufacturing, memory, silicon wafer, PCB, led and other manufacturers continued to rise year-on-year, some of the growth narrowed, and the revenue of some panel and lens manufacturers decreased year-on-year. The revenue of some manufacturers in the IC design field increased year-on-year. The revenue of MediaTek in December increased by 42.47% year-on-year, 8.18 percentage points higher than that in November; Lianyong’s revenue in December increased by 62.66% year-on-year, 3.44 percentage points higher than that in November; in the IC manufacturing field the revenue of TSMC, Lianhe power, world and Wenmao in December increased by 32.39%, 32.65%, 53.52% and 1.86% respectively year-on-year, of which the growth rate of TSMC expanded by 13.65%, that of liandian narrowed by 0.87%, that of the world expanded by 1.35%, and that of Wenmao narrowed by 2.75%; The year-on-year revenue growth of memory manufacturer Nanke narrowed by 11.53 percentage points to 36.62%, that of Huabang power narrowed by 1.81 percentage points to 26.42%, and that of wanghong narrowed by 33.65 percentage points to 23.77%; The revenue of silicon wafer manufacturer taishengke increased by 1.46 percentage points year-on-year to 9.42%, and the revenue of packaging manufacturer riyueyue increased by 18.62% year-on-year, 0.84 percentage points lower than that in November; The revenue of jingshuo electronics, a PCB manufacturer, increased by 25.67% year-on-year, 10.67 percentage points lower than that in November; The revenue of passive component manufacturer Guoju in December increased by 12.18% year-on-year, that of lens manufacturer daliguang decreased by 8.33%, that of yujingguang increased to 25.99% year-on-year, and that of Asian optics increased by 28.6% year-on-year; Among the panel and LED manufacturers, the year-on-year growth of Youda and Jingdian narrowed, and the year-on-year growth of qunchuang and Yiguang changed from positive to negative.
In December, the output of metal cutting machine tools increased year-on-year. in December, the output of metal cutting machine tools was 60000, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points over the previous month; From January to December, the cumulative output of metal cutting machine tools was 600000, with a year-on-year increase of 29.2%, 0.7 percentage points lower than that of the previous month.
The year-on-year growth rate of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output in December narrowed. The output of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) in December was 35175 sets / set, with a year-on-year increase of 15.1% and a decrease of 12.8 percentage points compared with November. From January to December 2021, the cumulative output of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) was 366044 sets / set, with a year-on-year increase of 44.9%, a decrease of 4.1 percentage points compared with January to November, and the cumulative output increased by 95.8% compared with the same period in 2019.
from January to December, the year-on-year growth of completed housing area, sales volume of commercial housing, sales area of commercial housing, completion amount of development investment and cumulative value of development fund sources narrowed, and the cumulative year-on-year decline of newly started housing area expanded. 1-december, the cumulative value of completed housing area was 1.014 billion square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 11.2%, down 5 percentage points from the previous value; From January to December, the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 1.989 billion square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 11.40%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points compared with the decrease from January to November.
From January to December, the cumulative value of commercial housing sales was 18.19 trillion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4.8%, 3.7 percentage points lower than the previous value; From January to December, the cumulative value of commercial housing sales area was 1.794 billion square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.90%, 2.9 percentage points lower than the previous value; From January to December, the cumulative value of investment in real estate development was 14.76 trillion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4.4%, 1.6 percentage points lower than the previous value.
In December, the proportion of real estate development in the completed amount of fixed asset investment was 25.22%. From January to December, the total cumulative value of real estate development capital sources was 20.11 trillion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4.2%, which was 3 percentage points lower than that from January to November.
the prices of billet, rebar and iron ore rose this week. as of January 21, the billet price index rose 0.31% week on week to 4484.0 yuan / ton; The price of HRB400 20mm deformed steel bar increased by 0.42% to 4802.0 yuan / ton; The iron ore price index rose 7.38% week on week to 488.07.
the futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased, while the futures prices of thermal coal increased. as of January 21, coke futures prices fell 4.81% week on week to 2947.0 yuan / ton; Coking coal price decreased by 1.62% to 2253.0 yuan / ton on a weekly basis; The price of thermal coal futures rose 11.68% week on week to 769.0 yuan / ton.
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capital · numerous and few – RMB appreciation drives large-scale inflow of foreign capital and leveraged capital outflow
From the perspective of the capital flow throughout the week, the capital going north continued the trend of net inflow this week, the financing capital turned into net outflow, the scale of the newly established partial share public offering fund rebounded, and the ETF continued to make a substantial net subscription. Specifically, the net inflow of funds going north this week was 29.2 billion yuan; The total net outflow of financing funds in the first four trading days was RMB 12.45 billion; 25.38 billion partial equity public funds were newly established, up from the previous period; ETF continued its net subscription, corresponding to a net inflow of RMB 12.9 billion.
from the perspective of net subscription of ETF, the net subscription of ETF is mainly net subscription of broad Index ETF, and the subscription of gem (including gem 50) ETF is more; There are half of ETF applications for redemption in the industry, including more applications for pharmaceutical ETF and more redemption of securities ETF. specifically, the overall net subscription of equity ETFs was 5.21 billion. Among them, CSI 300, gem ETF, CSI 500etf, SSE 50ETF and mass entrepreneurship 50ETF respectively had a net subscription of 890 million, 1.04 billion, 590 million, 480 million and 120 million. In terms of industry, the net subscription of it ETF was 160 million; Net redemption of 190 million consumer ETFs; Net subscription of 2.51 billion pharmaceutical ETFs; Net redemption of securities companies ETFs was 480 million; Net redemption of 190 million ETFs of financial real estate; Net subscription of 190 million military ETFs; Net subscription of 110 million ETFs for raw materials; The net subscription of new energy & Intelligent Vehicle ETF was 470 million.
the scale of newly established partial stock public funds this week rebounded compared with the previous period, and 25.38 billion partial stock funds were newly established.
this week (January 16 to January 20), the net inflow of funds going north was 29.2 billion yuan, an increase over the previous period. in terms of industry preference, banks, non bank finance, chemical industry, etc. with higher net purchase scale of northbound funds, net purchase of 9.28 billion yuan, 5.34 billion yuan and 3.41 billion yuan respectively; Concentrated sales of leisure services, household appliances, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, with a net sales scale of – 1.02 billion yuan, – 900 million yuan and – 280 million yuan.
In terms of individual stocks, those with higher net purchase scale of northbound funds are Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) ; Higher net sales include Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) .
In terms of financing and financing, the net outflow of financing funds in the first four trading days was 12.45 billion yuan. From the perspective of industry preference, the financing funds focused on buying computers this week, with a net purchase amount of 1.61 billion yuan. Other industries with the highest net purchase scale mainly include media, national defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, etc; The net sales are mainly electronics, non bank finance, chemical industry, etc. From the perspective of individual stocks, the higher financing net purchases of individual stocks include Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) , and the higher net sales mainly include Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) .
from the perspective of capital demand, the net reduction scale of important shareholders is reduced; The scale of planned reduction decreased. this week, major shareholders increased their holdings in the secondary market by 360 million yuan, reduced their holdings by 8.24 billion yuan, reduced their net holdings by 7.88 billion yuan, and reduced the scale of their net holdings. Among them, the industries with higher net holdings are comprehensive, non-ferrous metals and banks; Industries with high net reduction scale include machinery and equipment, medicine, biology, chemical industry, etc. The planned reduction announced this week was 12.56 billion yuan, down from the previous period.
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theme · wind direction – Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) enter the power exchange market and pay attention to the acceleration of power exchange industrialization
The market fell this week. The wind all a index fell 1.03% weekly, the gem index fell 2.72% and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 1.11%. The top gainers this week were mainly e-government, big data, China Radio and television and other related topics.
The theme events worthy of attention this week and next week are:
1, photovoltaic – National Energy Administration: China’s grid connected installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation has exceeded 300 million KW
On January 20, according to the national energy administration, statistics show that China’s newly added photovoltaic power generation grid connected installed capacity in 2021 is about 53 million KW, ranking first in the world for nine consecutive years.
By the end of 2021, the installed capacity of grid connected photovoltaic power generation had reached 306 million KW, breaking the 300 million KW mark, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years. In the first year of the 14th five year plan, the construction of photovoltaic power generation achieved new breakthroughs and presented new characteristics. Distributed PV reached 107.5 million KW, exceeding 100 million KW, accounting for about one third of the total grid connected installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation.
In December 2021, newly incorporated into the scale of national financial subsidies, the total installed capacity of household photovoltaic projects is 5089800 kW. By the end of December 2021, the installed capacity of household photovoltaic projects included in the scale of national financial subsidies in 2021 was 21.5962 million KW.
2, power exchange – Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) release the power exchange service brand evogo to create an overall solution for combined power exchange
On January 18, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) time electric service, a wholly-owned subsidiary, released the power exchange service brand – evogo and the overall solution of combined power exchange. The scheme consists of three products: power exchange block, quick exchange station and app. Among them, “chocolate power exchange block” is a mass-produced battery specially developed to realize shared power exchange. Using Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) the latest CTP technology, a single battery can provide a endurance of about 200km, which can be applied to passenger cars and logistics vehicles from A00 level to B level and C level; It is suitable for 80% of the models developed by the pure electric platform that have been listed in the world and will be listed in the next three years. The power exchange station can be adapted to various brand models using “chocolate power exchange block”, so as to realize the freedom of choice of electric vehicle type. In addition, the 001 member of evogo’s “little green ring family” is the power exchange version of FAW Pentium NAT combination. In the future, evogo will select the first batch of ten cities to start the power exchange service and release more brand electric models. The power exchange mode has the advantages of saving time, reducing cost and completely solving mileage anxiety. It is very suitable as the best energy supplement form of new energy vehicles. Ningde power exchange will face all vehicle enterprises, which is another major action of Ningde in the field of power exchange, and also shows that the power exchange mode has gradually become an industry consensus.
3, intelligent driving — Baidu released the automobile Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) brand “pixel-j”
On January 18, Baidu’s official microblog said that the “pixel-j” brand logo of Jidu automobile Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) was officially born. On the 19th, Jidu announced some product design styles of its auto Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) concept car. It is reported that this car will be unveiled at the Beijing auto show in April this year. The appearance of the mass production car Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) will be 90% consistent with that of the concept car. At the same time, Jidu officially released the brand vision system tailored for automobile Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , including the industry’s first automobile Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) brand logo “pixel-j”, color and font.
4, new energy – Ministry of transport: accelerating the popularization and application of new energy and clean energy transportation equipment and key technologies of energy conservation and environmental protection during the 14th five year plan
On January 21, the Ministry of transport issued the “14th five year plan” for green transportation, which proposed to accelerate the popularization and application of new energy and clean energy transportation equipment. Accelerate the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in urban public transport, leasing, logistics and distribution. The proportion of new energy vehicles in new or updated public transport, leasing, logistics and distribution vehicles in the national ecological civilization pilot zone and key areas of air pollution prevention and control shall not be less than 80%. Encourage the pilot application of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. We will promote the new and replacement of port operation machinery, vehicles and tugs in the port, freight yard and station operation vehicles, and give priority to the use of new and clean energy. Promote the construction of charging (replacement) facilities in highway service areas, passenger transport hubs and other areas to facilitate green transportation and green travel. Promote the rational layout of photovoltaic power generation facilities along the highway, service area and other suitable areas according to local conditions. Further promote the promotion and application of inland LNG powered ships and support the development of coastal and ocean LNG powered ships. Actively explore the application of oil electric hybrid, hydrogen fuel, ammonia fuel and methanol powered ships.
The plan proposes to accelerate the popularization and application of key technologies of energy conservation and environmental protection. We will strengthen the promotion and application of key energy-saving and low-carbon technologies in the transportation industry, continue to formulate and publish the catalogue of key energy-saving and low-carbon technologies in the transportation industry, focus on selecting a number of energy-saving and low-carbon technologies with great emission reduction potential and wide application range, and strengthen technology publicity, exchange, training, promotion and application. Relying on the transportation science and technology demonstration project, strengthen the integrated application demonstration and achievement transformation of energy-saving and environmental protection technology.
5 , smart Tourism – the 14th five year plan for tourism development: accelerate the application and popularization of new technologies such as big data and virtual reality in the tourism field
On January 20, the State Council issued the “14th five year plan” for tourism development. It is mentioned in the plan to accelerate the application and popularization of new technologies such as big data, cloud computing, Internet of things, blockchain, 5g, Beidou system, virtual reality and augmented reality in the tourism field, so as to improve the development level of tourism with scientific and technological innovation. Vigorously improve tourism service related technologies, enhance the experience and interaction of tourism products, and improve the convenience and safety of tourism services. Encourage the development of tourist oriented tourism platforms and system tools with comprehensive functions such as intelligent recommendation, intelligent decision-making and intelligent payment. Promote the comprehensive integrated application of holographic display, wearable devices, services Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , intelligent terminals, UAVs and other technologies. Promote the R & D and application demonstration of smart tourism public services, tourism market governance “smart brain”, interactive immersive tourism performance and other technologies. We will build a number of intelligent tourist city, tourist attractions, resort areas and tourist blocks, cultivate a number of intelligent tourism innovation enterprises and key projects, develop digital experience products, develop immersive interactive experience, virtual exhibition, intelligent guide and other new tourism services, and promote the construction of tourism scene represented by “Internet plus”. Improve 5g network coverage in key tourism areas such as tourist attractions and resorts. Promote the digital and intelligent transformation and upgrading of parking lots, tourism distribution centers, tourism consulting centers, tourist service centers, special tourist roads, tourist toilets, tourist attractions and internal guidance and identification systems in resorts.
6, yuanuniverse – the second batch of members of China Mobile yuanuniverse Industry Committee announced that 7 listed companies were selected
On January 19, the official website of yuancosmos Industry Committee of China Mobile Communications Federation announced the list of the second batch of 16 members, including 7 listed companies, namely Wondershare Technology Group Co.Ltd(300624) , Zhejiang Jinke Tom Culture Industry Co.Ltd(300459) , Soyea Technology Co.Ltd(000909) , Shen Zhen Shengxunda Technology Co.Ltd(300518) , Col Digital Publishing Group Co.Ltd(300364) , Profit Cultural & Creative Group Co.Ltd(300640) and Zhewen Interactive Group Co.Ltd(600986) . It is understood that the first list accepts 65 companies / person (25 individual members, 40 unit members and 8 listed companies); The second batch accepted 16 new members / person (4 individuals, 12 units and 7 listed companies).
7, carbon neutralization – National Development and Reform Commission: establish a linkage mechanism between green power transaction and renewable energy consumption responsibility weight, and actively promote green residential consumption
On January 21, the national development and Reform Commission and other departments issued the implementation plan for promoting green consumption, which proposed to further stimulate the green power consumption potential of the whole society. Establish a linkage mechanism between green power transaction and renewable energy consumption responsibility weight, and market-oriented users complete the renewable energy consumption responsibility weight by purchasing green power or green certificate.
Strengthen the connection with carbon emission trading, and study the feasibility of deducting the carbon emissions related to green power in emission accounting in combination with the revision and improvement of the technical specifications of accounting reports of relevant industries in the national carbon market. Continue to promote the innovative development of intelligent photovoltaic, vigorously promote the application of building photovoltaic, and accelerate the proportion of residents’ green power consumption.
The plan proposes to vigorously develop green transportation consumption. Vigorously promote new energy vehicles, gradually eliminate restrictions on the purchase of new energy vehicles in various regions, promote the implementation of supporting policies such as free travel and right of way, strengthen the construction of supporting infrastructure such as charging and changing electricity, new energy storage and hydrogenation, and actively promote the development of vehicle and marine LNG. Promote the pilot application of new energy vehicle power exchange mode, and orderly carry out the demonstration application of fuel cell vehicles. We will further carry out new energy vehicles to the countryside, encourage automobile enterprises to develop and promote new energy vehicles that meet the travel needs of rural residents, are of high quality, low price, advanced and applicable, and promote the improvement of rural operation and maintenance service system. Reasonably guide consumers to buy lightweight, miniaturized and low emission passenger cars. We will vigorously promote the electrification of vehicles in the public sector and increase the proportion of new energy vehicles in urban public transport, leasing (including online car Hailing), sanitation, urban logistics and distribution, postal express, civil aviation airports and public affairs of Party and government organs.
The plan proposes to actively promote green residential consumption. Accelerate the development of green construction. Promote the large-scale development of green buildings and low-carbon buildings, and incorporate the requirements of energy conservation and environmental protection into the transformation of old residential areas. Vigorously develop green home decoration. Encourage the use of energy-saving lamps, energy-saving and environmental protection stoves, water-saving toilets and other energy-saving and water-saving products. Advocate reasonable control of indoor temperature, brightness and use of electrical equipment. We will continue to promote clean heating in rural areas, improve the electrification level of rural energy consumption, and accelerate the application of biomass energy, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) and other renewable energy in rural life.
8, charging pile – the State Council: actively build intercity charging network and supporting facilities of fast charging station in expressway service area
On January 18, the State Council issued the “14th five year plan” for the development of modern comprehensive transportation system. The plan proposes to implement the green and low-carbon transformation action of transportation. We will improve the layout of public charging and replacement networks in urban and rural areas, actively build intercity charging networks and supporting facilities for fast charging stations in expressway service areas, and realize that the coverage of fast charging stations in expressway service areas in national ecological civilization pilot areas and key areas for air pollution prevention and control is not less than 80% and 60% in other areas. Vigorously promote the integrated construction of parking lot and charging facilities to realize the interconnection of parking and charging data and information. Promote the electric replacement of urban public service vehicles and vehicles in ports and airports, and the proportion of electric vehicles in new or updated ground buses, urban logistics and distribution, postal express, rental, official business, sanitation and other vehicles in cities with a population of more than one million (except in severe cold areas) shall not be less than 80%. LNG filling stations will be built on the Yangtze River trunk line, Beijing Hangzhou canal and Xijiang shipping trunk line.
9, semiconductor – Apple accepts the price increase package of TSMC to produce 120000-150000 pieces of 4nm capacity
On January 17, the supply chain industry said that the design of the new generation a16 application processor developed by Apple has been finalized and will be delivered in TSMC’s 4nm n4p process. It is expected to enter mass production in TSMC Fab 18 plant in the second half of the year. Apple’s a16 application processor will be equipped with a new generation of iPhone 14, iPad and other products. Because the foundry capacity of wafers is in short supply, Apple has accepted a price increase to ensure the capacity, including the production capacity of 120000-150000 pieces of 4-nm process of TSMC.
10, new energy vehicles – Ministry of industry and information technology: study and clarify supporting policies such as the continuation of preferential purchase tax for new energy vehicles as soon as possible to stabilize market expectations
On January 18, Xiao Yaqing, Secretary of the Party group and Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, presided over the 2022 annual working meeting of the inter ministerial joint meeting. The meeting stressed that in 2022, we should implement the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, prepare the road map for green development of the automobile industry, study and clarify the support policies such as the extension of preferential purchase tax for new energy vehicles as soon as possible, improve the points management requirements and stabilize market expectations. We should make overall plans to make up for weaknesses and forge long sectors, accelerate key technological innovation and industrialization breakthroughs such as power batteries, operating systems and automobile chips, and further enhance the stability and competitiveness of the industrial chain. We should pay equal attention to open source and expenditure, improve the guarantee ability of key resources, improve the recycling system of power batteries, and improve the recycling proportion and utilization efficiency. We should further strengthen security supervision and improve the standards related to functional security, data security and network security.
industry observation this week – Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) enter the power exchange market and pay attention to the acceleration of power exchange industrialization
On January 18, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) time electric service, a wholly-owned subsidiary, released the power exchange service brand – evogo and the overall solution of combined power exchange. The scheme consists of three products: power exchange block, quick exchange station and app. Among them, “chocolate power exchange block” is a mass-produced battery specially developed to realize shared power exchange. Using Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) the latest CTP technology, a single battery can provide a endurance of about 200km, which can be applied to passenger cars and logistics vehicles from A00 level to B level and C level; It is suitable for 80% of the models developed by the pure electric platform that have been listed in the world and will be listed in the next three years. The power exchange station can be adapted to various brand models using “chocolate power exchange block”, so as to realize the freedom of choice of electric vehicle type. In addition, the 001 member of evogo’s “little green ring family” is the power exchange version of FAW Pentium NAT combination. In the future, evogo will select the first batch of ten cities to start the power exchange service and release more brand electric models.
development status of power exchange mode
The electric vehicle power exchange mode refers to the centralized storage, centralized charging and unified distribution of a large number of batteries through the centralized charging station, and the battery replacement service for electric vehicles in the battery distribution station, or the integration of battery charging, logistics allocation and power exchange service. The power exchange mode has the advantages of saving time, reducing car purchase cost, completely solving mileage anxiety, adjusting the peak valley difference of the power grid, reducing the impact on the power grid and realizing the energy Internet. The battery efficiency is maximized through operation modes such as centralized battery management, echelon utilization and recycling. According to China charging alliance, at present, there are mainly three enterprises operating replacement power stations in China – Aodong, Weilai and Hangzhou bertan. As of December 2021, there are 789 Weilai power stations, 402 Aodong power stations and 107 Botan power stations in Hangzhou.
upstream, middle and downstream of power exchange industry chain
The power exchange industry chain is mainly composed of upstream power exchange stations, midstream vehicle manufacturers and operators, and downstream end consumption. Upstream of the power exchange industry chain are battery enterprises and manufacturers of power exchange equipment, which are respectively responsible for providing power batteries and power exchange station equipment in the corresponding application range. Midstream is a power exchange station operator and battery asset company (mainly undertaking battery costs and obtaining profit returns through battery life-cycle management). In the downstream, there are all inclusive application scenarios (including private cars, taxis, buses, etc.). At present, b-end customers have strong demand for power exchange mode.
industrialization of power exchange mode is expected to speed up
The reason why the early power exchange mode failed to become the mainstream lies in the imperfect battery technical standards and the heavy asset operation of the power exchange station. Due to different suppliers of power batteries and different battery specifications and standards for pure electric vehicles, it is difficult for a power exchange station to be compatible with many different power batteries. In addition, the one-time cost of investment in the construction of power exchange station is large, including site demand, vehicle technical transformation, battery reserve, power exchange facility construction, energy station construction, etc., and the cost is much higher than that of charging column construction.
Since 2021, the power exchange industry has ushered in a dividend period of policies, with the introduction of comprehensive policies such as subsidies and the formulation of industry standards, so as to tamp the foundation for the top-level design of the industry. On January 10, 2022, the national development and Reform Commission, the national energy administration and other departments jointly issued the implementation opinions of the national development and Reform Commission and other departments on further improving the service guarantee capacity of electric vehicle charging infrastructure, encouraging the promotion and application of power exchange mode. Around the scenes of mines, ports and urban transfer, support the construction and layout of special power exchange stations, accelerate the exploration and promotion of vehicle electricity separation mode, and promote the electrification transformation of heavy trucks and container trucks in the port. Explore the shared power exchange mode in the fields of leasing, logistics and transportation, and optimize and improve the shared power exchange service. With the participation of leading manufacturers such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and the introduction of relevant national policies, it is expected to promote the standardization of power exchange industry, and the industrialization of power exchange mode is expected to accelerate this year.
on the whole, as the power exchange mode is gradually recognized by the market, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and other battery giants accelerate the layout, which is expected to solve the standardization problems of the power exchange industry. The policy support for the power exchange mode continues to increase, and the sales of new energy vehicles increase rapidly. In the future, the power exchange industry chain is expected to usher in accelerated development. It is suggested to pay attention to investment opportunities in this field.
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data · valuation – overall A-share valuation downward
the valuation level of all A-Shares fell this week. as of the closing on January 21, all A-share PE (TTM) fell 0.1X to 16.0x, in the quantile of 49.5% of the historical valuation level. Gem fell this week, with PE (TTM) falling 1.8x to 47.1x, in the quantile of 40.9% of the historical valuation level. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index PE (TTM), representing large cap stocks, rose 0.1X to 13.0x this week, in the 71.4% quantile of the historical valuation level. The China Securities 500 index PE (TTM), which represents small and medium-sized stocks, fell 0.2x to 17.4x this week, in the 3.7% quantile of historical valuation level.
in terms of industry valuation, the sector valuation rose and fell this week. Among them, the valuation of computer and food and beverage sectors rose more, with an increase of more than 1.5x, and the national defense and military industry sector fell significantly, with a decrease of more than 4.5X. among them, the computer sector rose 2.28x to 54.4x, in the historical quantile of 67.3%; The food and beverage sector rose 1.63x to 43.5x, at the historical quantile of 87.2%; The valuation of the defense and military industry sector fell 4.66x to 58.5x, in the historical quantile of 44.8%. As of the closing on January 21, the top five industries in the valuation of primary industries were national defense and military industry, computer, electrical equipment, food and beverage and leisure services.
