the market is still tangled in the bottom area. 1. This week, the MLF interest rate was lowered, the central bank said to “open the monetary policy toolbox more”, and the one-year and five-year LPR was lowered. The direction of policy easing has been clear, but the market is still skeptical about the rhythm and intensity of policy easing. 2. The Fed’s concern about raising interest rates and even shrinking the table, and the sharp rise in US bond interest rates led to a sharp decline in US stocks, especially technology stocks, which also dragged down China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) , semiconductors and other sectors.
the layout on the left is “mini version 2014”. 1) grasp the main contradiction. At present, it is a time window for “stable growth” and marginal “wide credit”: since the economic work conference in December 2021, the central bank has continuously reduced the reserve requirement and policy interest rate, issued the new special debt of 1.46 trillion in advance, and issued major projects in some provinces and cities in January earlier than in previous years. Various signals and data are constantly verifying the direction of marginal “wide credit”. 2) referring to 2014, the tone of policy relaxation was established in the first half of the year, and social finance basically hit the bottom in April, but the index market did not officially start until the interest rate cut in November. Every tangle and adjustment has become a layout opportunity (for the specific resumption in 2014, please refer to how to open the index market in 2014? Also on “mini version 2014”). At present, it has entered a similar stage: the relaxation direction has been clear, but the market is still entangled in the rhythm, intensity and effect of policy relaxation. It is somewhat similar to the tangled period from August to October 2014. 3) However, the difference between now and 2014 is that, on the one hand, 2014 is a comprehensive and systematic relaxation. At present, under the general tone of “no speculation in real estate and housing” and “no promotion in infrastructure”, the intensity and space of policy easing are relatively limited, which is more likely to be phased and underpinned relaxation. On the other hand, in 2014, it gradually evolved into a round of leveraged cattle. At present, the market leverage is weak, and institutional funds are still the dominant force in the market. Therefore, this round of market or similar “mini version 2014”, and now it is the left layout window.
structurally, periodically focuses on the undervalued repair market under “mini version 2014”; Exploit “small high-tech” with long to beat short and bargain hunting: 1) “big finance”: in the past few years, big finance has become more and more popular α But this year, with the clear direction of policy relaxation, it will usher in α reach β Integral repair of . Especially with the recent acceleration of industry and style rotation, the willingness of institutions to balance the position structure has increased significantly. As a top-down logical support and a “place with few people”, the large financial sector is becoming the direction of phased position increase in the market. Bank: the performance in 2021 is significantly higher than expected. After the credit in December 2021, the loan in January 2022 is expected to “start well”. Securities companies: active market transactions have led to high performance growth. The promotion of the follow-up comprehensive registration system is also expected to support long-term performance. Real estate: benefiting from marginal changes in policy, “steady growth” is expected to rise. The follow-up real estate financing and credit are expected to be further relaxed, leading to the repair of sector valuation. 2) “Small high-tech”: the scientific and technological growth represented by “small high-tech” is based on the layout of long fighting short and bargain hunting. Recently, the science and technology growth sector has been adjusted, mainly disturbed by positions, emotions, styles and overseas factors. However, in combination with the five congestion indicators and previous callbacks, the space for subsequent adjustment may be limited. In the medium and long term, scientific and technological growth is still the inevitable choice for high-quality development and bigger cake under common prosperity. It is also one of the most distinctive themes of the times to meet the urgent need to improve scientific and technological competitiveness and get rid of the “neck stuck” dilemma under the background of the game between China and the United States.
investment strategy: on the one hand, grasp the undervalued repair market of financial real estate, on the other hand, lay out “small high-tech” with long-term fighting short and bargain hunting. For a long time, focus on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) new energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedical drugs (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
risk tip: pay attention to the unexpected return of global capital to the United States and the game between China and the United States.
