Near the Spring Festival, the jewelry counters in shopping malls and department stores in our city are obviously lively, especially full gold jewelry is favored by consumers. However, since 2022, the trend of international gold price has been complicated and confusing. So, can gold still "shine" this year?
Recently, the popularity of jewelry counters has increased significantly.
Market
The price of gold has not fluctuated recently, and the counters have become very popular
In recent days, the reporter visited several jewelry brand counters in our city, such as Liufu, zhoudafu, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) and zhouliufu, and found that the popularity in front of the counter has increased significantly. After work yesterday, Miss Wu, who works in a private enterprise in our city, went to the Liufu counter in California commercial plaza to choose a full gold bracelet for her upcoming sister during the new year. She said that the full gold jewelry sold in the department stores in our city has many styles and novel designs, and there is a wide range of choices.
In the interview, the reporter found that consumers who reward themselves and prepare spring festival gifts for their families after receiving the year-end bonus are the main force to buy full gold jewelry in the near future. For consumers who buy gold jewelry, in addition to the appearance of jewelry, they are most concerned about the price. The reporter noted that recently, the full gold prices of Liufu, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) and other brands hovered between 482 yuan / g and 484 yuan / g, with little price fluctuation.
Organization
There are both optimists and pessimists on the obvious differentiation of gold price expectations
Entering 2022, the trend of international gold price is complicated and confusing. What will gold do in 2022? At present, the expectations of institutions for gold prices are obviously divided, but most views believe that the market is facing more variables and may fluctuate frequently.
JPMorgan Chase believes that the cancellation of "ultra loose" monetary policy by central banks this year is a "completely bearish" factor for gold. The price of gold will fall steadily this year and may fall to US $1520 / ounce in the fourth quarter.
Citigroup predicts that gold will face "greater selling pressure" this year, and the gold price will fall to the average level of US $1685 / oz, and further fall to the average level of US $1500 / oz in 2023. Citigroup also believes that the possibility of a new bull market in gold prices this year and making gold prices return to above $2000 / ounce is only 30%.
However, there are also optimists. Commerzbank of Germany predicts that gold prices are expected to revive in 2022. France Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) also believes that the price of gold is expected to exceed US $1900 / ounce in 2022.
Suggestion
It can be configured appropriately
As an anti risk asset
Cai Yunwen, financial manager of Hua Xia Bank Co.Limited(600015) Xiamen Xiangyu Co.Ltd(600057) sub branch and holder of AFP (Financial Planner), analyzed that the overall fluctuation of gold in the near future is small, and there may be a temporary correction in the market, but the proportion of correction is far lower than that of some other risk assets.
"When investing in gold, we should take a long-term view and see that it can resist risks and inflation. Moreover, gold has very good liquidity and can be realized at any time under special market environment." She said that the thinking and logic of gold investment should not be speculative, but should be treated and allocated as an anti risk asset. From the perspective of asset allocation, it is suggested that general balanced investors should allocate 5% - 10% of gold. Physical gold is suitable for medium and long-term investment; For short-term investment, paper gold, spot gold and gold ETF are optional varieties.
"Due to many factors such as the obvious weakening trend of the global economy and the high global inflation, the trend of gold price in 2022 may usher in a turnaround." Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) Chen Wanxia, VIP financial manager of Xiamen Jimei sub branch and holder of AFP (Financial Planner), said that investors are not recommended to blindly short the trend. She believes that in the medium and long term, the value of gold allocation is still high against the background of excessive currency, slow global economic growth and high inflation. Therefore, medium - and long-term asset allocators may wish to make appropriate allocation at the time of gold price correction.
