After three consecutive years of decline, China’s auto market will usher in positive growth again in 2021. Among them, the output of 3.545 million new energy vehicles and the sales volume of 3.521 million new energy vehicles have contributed greatly to the growth of the automobile market.
However, in 2022, new energy vehicle enterprises have announced price increases. On the evening of the 21st, Byd Company Limited(002594) officials announced that they would adjust the official guidance price of their relevant new energy models by 1000-7000 yuan. In addition to Byd Company Limited(002594) , FAW Volkswagen, Tesla, Nezha automobile, Xiaopeng automobile, GAC AIAN and other new energy vehicle enterprises also announced price increases earlier.
In fact, the price rise of new energy vehicles is not an accident. At the end of 2021, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions issued the notice on the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2022, which made it clear that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021. In addition, the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be terminated on December 31, 2022, and vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized.
While subsidies are declining, the price of raw materials for new energy vehicles has risen sharply. According to statistics, the spot price of lithium metal increased by 175% in 2021, and the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate increased by more than 418%. Since 2022, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate has continuously hit a new high. The lithium battery research institute of Gaogong Industry Research Institute estimates that the theoretical cost of battery cells and battery systems has increased by more than 30% due to the rise in the price of raw materials.
As the subsidy policy enters the last year, various preferential policies are gradually reduced, the price of raw materials is rising, and the chip shortage crisis has not been lifted. Can more expensive new energy vehicles continue the hot performance of 2021 in 2022?
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) in the recent research report, it is pointed out that the decline was clearly mentioned in the new energy vehicle subsidy notice issued in April 2020. Therefore, many consumers buy lock-in concessions in advance and have certain psychological expectations for the rise of vehicle prices in the future.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) believes that the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market has changed from policy driven to market driven. In the face of strong downstream demand, the decline of subsidies has limited impact on the overall market growth of new energy vehicles, and the overall new energy vehicles will still show steady growth in the future.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger car market information association (hereinafter referred to as the passenger car Association), said that with the implementation of the decline of new energy subsidies, the prices of some models have been fine tuned, and the consumer mentality has also changed, and the demand for new energy vehicles will still be slightly affected. However, new energy vehicles continue to be popular. At present, there are a large number of undelivered orders in the early stage, so the sales of most new energy vehicles will not be significantly affected by the decline.
In Cui Dongshu’s view, with the increase of scale, the cost is bound to gradually decline, and the new energy subsidy will continue until the end of 2022. The pulling effect of cost reduction will be obvious, driving the upgrading of A00 model (mini car) and the breakthrough of A-class main model (compact car).
Cao xute, an analyst at Shengang securities, believes that the subsidy policy has completed its historical mission of cultivating the market in the early stage, and Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles have entered a period of rapid development. At present, new energy vehicles have moved from “price led” to “demand led” stage. Compared with the price, consumers pay more attention to the license sector and traffic restriction policies of re energy vehicles Electric intelligent function and other use experience and convenience.
It is worth mentioning that the notice on the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2022 mentioned that the framework and threshold requirements of the current purchase subsidy technical index system will remain unchanged in 2022.
In this regard, the passenger Federation believes that the new energy subsidy policy in 2022 is a great benefit. In 2022, the framework and threshold requirements of the current purchase subsidy technical index system will remain unchanged, and the subsidy scale is not locked from the original expected upper limit of 2 million vehicles, which will realize the subsidy throughout the whole year of 2022.
Although the subsidies have been reduced after the new deal, the number of subsidies has been expanded accordingly. The passenger Federation also raised the sales target of new energy passenger vehicles in 2022. It was originally expected that the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in 2022 would be 4.8 million, which should be adjusted to more than 5.5 million at present, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles would reach about 25%. New energy vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is about 22%.
