With the disclosure of the fourth quarter report of public funds in 2021, Zhang Kun, Ge Lan, Liu Gesong, Xiao Nan, Li Xiaoxing, Zhao Yi, Feng Mingyuan, Fu Pengbo, Yuan Fang, Wang Zonghe and other fund managers holding 10 billion or even 100 billion funds have recently disclosed quarterly reports.
According to the data, as of January 22, the four seasons report of China Europe Fund disclosed that the total scale of funds under management of Gelan’s newly recruited 100 billion fund managers reached 110.339 billion yuan, which has exceeded the volume of 101.9 billion yuan of Zhang Kun in the same period and the record of 102.915 billion yuan set by Liu Yanchun in the third quarterly report of last year. If the management scale of Liu Yanchun is less than that disclosed later, Ge Lan is expected to top the management scale of active equity funds, and the number of 100 billion active fund managers may also increase to three.
Since the public offering four seasons reports have not been disclosed yet, the reporter has made statistics as of January 22. The latest management scale of the latest active well-known fund managers is as follows:
Where will active fund managers with large capital volume and investment voice in the A-share market invest in the next step, how to treat investment opportunities in consumer and pharmaceutical stocks, how to balance the prosperity and valuation risk of new energy, who are “proud of horseshoe disease” and who have just had a “difficult year”? The fund manager summarized the golden sentences of these well-known fund managers as follows:
Zhang Kun: to invest well, it is more important to focus on the field rather than the scoreboard.
Glenn: from the perspective of future configuration direction, the innovative drug industry chain is still our most promising direction for a long time.
Liu Gesong: style differentiation may continue in 2022. Looking forward to 2022, we are still optimistic about the growth sustainability and profit growth of assets in the direction of “global comparative advantage manufacturing”.
Xiao Nan: we do need to adjust the long-term return assumptions of various assets, but more importantly, we also need to seriously consider which long-term trends are changing.
Li Xiaoxing: the market view of 2022 can be summarized into two sentences: “carbon neutralization, stable consumption, focusing on core assets.”
Zhao Yi: the share price of photovoltaic industry has been ahead of the fundamentals. When the valuation has been very high, the cost performance is relatively poor, and enterprises with core competitiveness can only be selected in a longer time dimension.
Feng Mingyuan: the global energy industry is undergoing profound changes, and a large number of great enterprises will emerge in China.
Fu Pengbo: looking forward to 2022, the non-financial growth rate of all a may fall, and the high growth enterprises will highlight their scarcity.
Yuan Fang: in 2022, A-Shares will be in the period of profit decline, the index is difficult to have a large performance, and the investment cost performance of short-term stable growth may rise. Throughout the year, the boom trend and dilemma repair are still the main investment determinants in the one-year dimension.
Wang Zonghe: 2021 is undoubtedly a difficult year. In the medium and long term, we will look for more opportunities in companies that can realize value growth space.
Glenn: reduce the decentralized shareholding concentration of shareholding positions
“most optimistic about the innovative drug industry chain for a long time”
Since 2021, the pharmaceutical sector has performed poorly. The representative fund of Glenn, China Europe medical and health, fell 6.55% last year, lagging behind the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in the same period, and fell 12.17% at the beginning of this year.
Although the performance of the pharmaceutical sector is weak, the fund holders of Ge Lan are “falling and buying”. In the fourth quarter of last year, the fund scale under Ge Lan’s management increased by 13.3 billion yuan, the total scale exceeded 100 billion, and the latest scale was 110.339 billion yuan.
From the first quarter to the fourth quarter of 2021, the shareholding position of China EU medical and health also went down all the way, from 93.37% in the first quarter to 81.47% in the fourth quarter. The proportion of bank deposits and reverse repurchase assets reached a new high in the year. Among them, the proportion of bank deposits reached 7.61%, and the proportion of reverse repurchase soared by nearly 10%.
In terms of the top ten heavyweight stocks, Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) and other heavyweight stocks, Ge Lan also “fell and bought more”, and the number of holdings increased significantly, but the concentration of the top ten holdings decreased by 9 percentage points from 66% in the previous quarter to 57%; The four seasons also added Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) as the top ten heavyweight stocks.
Facing the downturn of the pharmaceutical market, the fund as a whole has shown the practice of reducing shareholding positions and dispersing shareholding concentration. Pharmaceutical stocks have fallen sharply in the market recently. How to interpret the future market has also attracted the attention of investors.
Ge Lan said in the four seasons report that we have generally maintained the operation of high positions and made a key layout in the long-term promising innovative drug industry chain, medical services and leading enterprises of high-quality generic drugs.
From the perspective of future configuration direction, the innovative drug industry chain is still our most promising direction for a long time. From the top-level design of policies at the national level to the innovation accumulation of Chinese enterprises in recent years, China’s innovative drug industry chain has been maintained in a high-profile state for a long time. In addition, with the improvement of Chinese residents’ consumption ability, knowledge structure and cognitive level, the penetration of products and services and the residents’ ability to pay are continuously improving, and the leading enterprises in relevant industries also have long-term growth space.
Zhang Kun: it is more important to focus on the field
instead of staring at the scoreboard
E fund blue chip selection is the largest fund managed by Zhang Kun, with a scale of 67.6 billion yuan at the end of the fourth quarter of last year, almost the same as that of the same period last year. However, judging from the investment performance, the fund lost 9.89% of its performance by Baijiu and Hong Kong stock leading stocks. It was 4.69 percentage points behind the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index 300 in the same period last year.
From the operation of the fund’s shareholding, Baijiu Tencent holdings, Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , two stocks ranked the top two heavily loaded stocks, reducing the Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and other liquor stocks. The overall shareholding position increased from 92.41% at the end of the third quarter to 94.54%, an increase of 2 percentage points, still ranking high.
Referring to his operation in the fourth quarter of 2021, he said in the quarterly report that the fund slightly increased its stock position in the fourth quarter, adjusted its structure, increased the allocation of technology and other industries, and reduced the allocation of finance, medicine and other industries. In terms of individual stocks, it still holds high-quality companies with excellent business model, clear industry pattern and strong competitiveness.
The central economic work conference in December 2021 stressed that “adhering to economic construction as the center is the requirement of the party’s basic line”, and China’s economy and enterprises themselves contain considerable potential. Therefore, we believe that the current downward pressure on the economy is only phased, and we remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of China’s economy, We firmly believe that China’s economic strength will eventually reach the level of developed countries.
In this case, Zhang Kun believes that a number of high-quality companies can create value for customers, improve the efficiency and productivity of the whole society, and have the ability to continuously create free cash flow for shareholders. In 2021, the share price performance of some of these enterprises lagged behind the market, but we always believed that “to make a good investment, it is more important to focus on the field rather than the scoreboard”. We will carefully examine the fundamentals of enterprises in the portfolio and select enterprises with outstanding competitiveness and high long-term logical certainty for long-term holding. We believe that after the valuation digestion in 2021, some high-quality enterprise valuations have been attractive. In the dimension of 3-5 years, the performance growth rate of the enterprise will be projected into the growth of its market value.
Liu Gesong: mainly invested in “global comparative advantage manufacturing”
world class companies will appear in photovoltaic, power battery and other fields
GF double engine upgrade is Liu Gesong’s representative fund. The fund made a profit of 4.41% last year, nearly 10 percentage points higher than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in the same period. However, it has lost 8.5% less than January in 2022, and all the profits of last year will be returned. How will Liu Gesong deal with high volatility sectors such as heavy positions in new energy, electronics and pharmaceutical stocks?
From the perspective of asset allocation, the fund’s shareholding position has been maintained at about 93% in 2021. In the fourth quarter of last year, it reduced its holdings of Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and other stocks with more gains, and remained unchanged for pharmaceutical stocks with large declines. On the whole, it responded to the risk of market fluctuations by adjusting the structure.
Liu Gesong concluded in the quarterly report that from the perspective of the industry, all kinds of assets in the market showed an obvious rotation trend in 2021. The performance of steel, coal, power utilities, upstream resource products, new energy and other sectors throughout the year was better than that of “core assets”, with differentiated styles. He believes that the situation of style differentiation may continue in 2022.
Looking forward to 2022, Liu Gesong is still optimistic about the growth sustainability and profit growth of assets in the direction of “global comparative advantage manufacturing”: a leading manufacturing company with global comparative advantage has been established, and the “moat” created by its entrepreneur leadership, advanced manufacturing capacity under industrial agglomeration and other factors is still widening. He judges that in the future, photovoltaic, power cells More world-class companies will appear in energy storage, panels, new chemical materials, automobiles and auto parts, high-end equipment and other directions. In the future, the asset allocation of the fund will still focus on these directions. We will start from the supply and demand pattern, look for excellent enterprises from the perspective of industry, and grow together with great enterprises, in order to obtain long-term excess returns for the holders.
Xiao Nan: greatly increased the position of automobile and parts sector
“adjust the long-term return assumption of various assets”
Yi Fang Da consumer industry is the representative fund of star fund manager Xiao Nan, also affected by Baijiu and consumer industries. The fund lost 11% in 2021, and it fell by nearly 6 percentage points behind the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. This year also saw a 4.87% decline.
According to the four seasons report, the fund’s shareholding position is 86%, which is still the central position of the shareholding proportion of the whole year last year. In the fourth quarter, the fund reduced its holdings by Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) every time it was high, and the new household appliance stocks such as Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) were the top ten heavy positions, and also increased their positions by Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) .
On the whole, it is to maintain a high position, but deal with the structural market of consumer segments by adjusting the structure of consumer stocks.
Xiao Nan said in the latest quarterly report that the fourth quarter, a few negative factors of the consumer sector showed a slight easing, but there was no complete improvement, resulting in a slight rebound in the sector of Baijiu and home appliances, and then plunged into the game market. This shows that investors have insufficient confidence in long-term variables such as policy, epidemic situation and macro-economy. Micro level data also partly confirm this concern.
Xiao Nan believes that we really need to adjust the long-term return assumptions of various assets, but more importantly, we also need to seriously consider which long-term trends are changing. In the fourth quarter, we significantly increased the configuration of cars and parts, because we found that the substitution of domestic cars for joint venture cars entered an acceleration range. We also adjusted the corresponding configuration based on the pattern differentiation of the home appliance sector. Out of concern about the uncertainty of the long-term policy of the duty-free sector, we significantly reduced our holdings in the duty-free sector. At the same time, we slightly reduced our holdings in the breeding sector, mainly considering that the ultra long trough of this round of pig cycle may be an extremely severe test for the cash flow of all participants in the industry, and we need a better time point to balance our time cost.
Li Xiaoxing: tracking the city scene bearing index
favor “carbon neutralization, stable consumption and focus on core assets”
Li Xiaoxing is a blue chip fund manager who has become popular in recent years. By the end of 2021, the total scale of funds under management had reached 52.4 billion yuan. His core investment philosophy is to select individual stocks that match performance growth and valuation and have certain poor expectations in industries with upward prosperity.
Following the city scene tolerance index, he has excellent long-term performance in managing the fund. In 2021, when the top flow fund manager of heavy consumption and medicine was frustrated, his representative fund, Yinhua Xinyi, bucked the market and achieved a yield of 38.62%. As of January 21 this year, the fund has made 249% in three and a half years since its establishment, with an annualized return of 42.16%, ranking among the top 2% of the same type of funds.
From last year’s performance analysis, Yinhua Xinyi stock holdings have been kept at 93% positions and maintained at a higher position. But the 1-4 quarter heavy stocks have been bought from Baijiu to new energy, from new energy, coloured to the reverse market, and Baijiu, following the market scenario. The investment operation of the fund has followed the market rhythm quickly, and has created a good investment performance.
Looking forward to the dimension of 2-3 years, he believes that the following three things will happen: the first is the gradual influenza of covid-19, the second is the gradual rise of the economy, and the third is the gradual return of liquidity to normal. Combined with his judgment on the macro environment, his market view for 2022 can also be summarized into two sentences: “carbon neutralization, stable consumption, focusing on core assets.” I hope my correct rate of market judgment in 2022 can be higher than that in 2021.
Zhao Yi: the cost performance of photovoltaic industry is relatively poor
“enterprises with core competitiveness need to be selected in a long-term dimension”
Zhao Yi is the fund manager of ABC Huili industry 4.0. In 2020, the Fund ranked among the “champion funds” of hybrid funds with a yield of 166%.
By the end of 2021, Zhao Yi’s Fund under management was 42.2 billion yuan. The new energy theme of Agricultural Bank of China Huili and Agricultural Bank of China Huili industry 4.0 under his management had a performance of 56.20% and 43.96% respectively last year. From the perspective of performance attribution, new energy, chemical industry, nonferrous metals and military stocks have made a good contribution to the income of the fund.
However, the fund he managed has reduced the position of leading new energy stocks in the fourth quarter of last year. Facing the huge earthquake in the new energy sector since this year, what does he think of the investment opportunities in the future?
Zhao Yi said in the four seasons report that looking forward to the next quarter, for the photovoltaic industry, at present, the price of upstream silicon began to loosen and the price of other links began to decline. From the perspective of fundamentals, there continues to be a game between various links of the industry. Considering that the stock price has been ahead of the fundamentals and the valuation has been very high, The cost performance is relatively poor, and enterprises with core competitiveness can only be selected in a longer time dimension.
For new energy vehicles, it is still a sector with very high certainty and growth rate. The production scheduling of leading enterprises in the whole battery industry chain is still at a high level. With the continuous expansion of the production capacity of front-line enterprises, the production scheduling is still improving month on month in the first quarter. However, considering that next year, the production capacity of all links will begin to be released, and the balance between supply and demand will begin to be reversed, As for the enterprises transforming into new energy this year, they also face the problem of performance realization. Therefore, there will be differentiation from the perspective of sector next year. Considering that the battery link is in multi application resonance, it is necessary to select companies with core competitiveness, continue to maintain the configuration idea focusing on New energy vehicle batteries and materials, and stack photovoltaic, military industry High end manufacturing industries such as vehicle specification semiconductor.
In essence, we hope to choose excellent companies and grow with them, so we will look at the companies in the portfolio from a longer-term perspective.
Feng Mingyuan: the global energy industry is undergoing profound changes
a large number of great enterprises will emerge in China
Feng Mingyuan is an outstanding fund manager of Cinda Aoyin fund. By the end of 2021, he had managed a total fund size of 41.1 billion yuan. The representative product is Cinda Aoyin new energy industry. This fund made a big profit of 45.37% last year.
In terms of performance attribution, the fund maintained a position of more than 90% in several quarterly reports last year, and obtained excess returns with heavy positions in new energy, nonferrous metals and electronics. The top ten heavy positions in the quarterly report accounted for less than 18%, with a high degree of shareholding dispersion.
In last year’s structural market, it was possible to gain 45% return with such decentralized shareholding. It may be that small and medium cap stocks have been configured in the landscape sectors such as new energy and nonferrous metals, creating an excess return for the fund as a whole.
According to the interim report data of the fund, the fund holds 398 stocks, and medium and small cap style stocks account for a large proportion. In terms of industry configuration, it is also the top four industries in electronics, chemical industry, electrical equipment and nonferrous metals. However, all holdings still need to wait for the annual report data of the fund to unveil.
Feng Mingyuan said that in this quarter, despite some new changes in the market, such as the high shock of the new energy sector, the gradual exit of the undervalued sector from the weak state, and the continued strength of small market value companies, the fund still maintained the allocation direction of emerging industries, focusing on the allocation of new energy vehicles, new materials, photovoltaic, wind power, high-end equipment, semiconductors and other fields.
Feng Mingyuan judged that the global energy industry is undergoing profound changes, and the proportion of new energy is increasing, which will gradually replace the mainstream position of traditional fossil energy in the next 50 years. This process should be irreversible. We believe that in this process of change, a large number of great enterprises will emerge in China. We hope to grow together with these great enterprises.
Fu Pengbo: high growth enterprises will highlight scarcity
focus on new energy, military industry, new materials and high-end manufacturing
Fu Pengbo, a veteran of the fund industry, represented the growth value of Ruiyuan. The fund had a yield of 2.61% last year, barely winning in the extreme market last year. In the four quarters of last year, the shareholding positions were up and down 90%, which also responded to the sharp fluctuations of the market through structural adjustment.
As of the fourth quarter of last year, Fu Pengbo increased his position by Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) , reduced his holdings by Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) and Han’S Laser Technology Industry Group Co.Ltd(002008) , and carried out portfolio optimization within the electronics industry; The Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) with more increase has also been reduced. At present, the heavy warehouse stocks are concentrated in the fields of electronics, chemical industry and building materials, and China Mobile and Geely Automobile in Hong Kong stocks also rank among the heavy warehouse stocks.
Looking forward to 2022, Fu Pengbo believes that the non-financial growth rate of all a may fall, and the high growth enterprises will highlight their scarcity. In the fourth quarter, the fund maintained a high position operation, and the top ten stocks in the portfolio changed little. Except that the positions of the corresponding companies of compound semiconductor increased, the other increases and decreases were limited.
From the perspective of industry distribution, he has focused on sub sectors such as building materials, chemical industry, TMT and new energy, and the proportion of core stocks is relatively stable. The prosperity of the industry in which the listed company is located, the medium and long-term development space and certainty, and the available resources in the growth process are all important indicators for screening. He will dynamically adjust the position structure in combination with the pre disclosure of the performance of Listed Companies in January, and new energy, military industry, new materials and high-end manufacturing are still the industries we focus on.
Yuan Fang: the cost performance of short-term steady growth investment increased
the annual economic trend and the repair of difficulties are the decisive factors
Yuan Fang, a public offering ICBC Credit Suisse fund, was in charge of 35.3 billion yuan at the end of last year. The representative fund is ICBC Credit Suisse sports industry. In the extreme market last year, the fund once held a heavy position in the new energy leader ” Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) “, which has become one of the representatives of the “style drift” fund widely discussed in the market.
By the end of 2021, the fund’s profit for the year was 10.34%, 15% higher than that of the CSI 300 index in the same period. In the fourth quarter, the fund increased its positions by Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , reduced its holdings of Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) and Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) , and held 89% of its overall position.
Yuan Fang said that in the fourth quarter of 2021, a relatively balanced adjustment was made to the portfolio, which, on the one hand, increased the traditional industry allocation of the underlying economy, because the central economic work conference has clearly defined the importance of economic “stability” in 2022; On the one hand, for the hot track with excessive increase in 2021, the position shall be appropriately reduced. Considering the overly optimistic expectation linear extrapolation of the market, the adjustment may be caused in the state of overvaluation. The research reserve is still a medium and long-term idea, invest research energy, and deeply study the industrial chain opportunities in line with the general direction of economic transformation.
In terms of macroeconomic environment, global economic growth will slow down in 2022. Considering the strength of demand side policies and the optimization of structural policies, China’s economic growth may gradually stabilize. In terms of economic growth power and transformation, from the medium and long-term perspective, it is expected that new infrastructure is the first choice for stable growth policies, and science and technology and green may be the two main lines.
In terms of the market, it is expected that A-Shares will be in a downward profit period in 2022, and it is difficult for the index to have a large performance. The market will also focus on structural opportunities, and the investment cost performance of short-term stable growth may rise. In terms of the whole year, the boom trend and dilemma repair are still the main investment determinants in the one-year dimension. Key areas of concern include the rise of automotive intelligence and auto parts following domestic cars; Carbon fiber, semiconductor materials; Upstream equipment and consumables in pharmaceutical manufacturing; VR / AR, etc.
Wang Zonghe: “2021 is undoubtedly a difficult year”
looking for opportunities in value growth companies in the future
Wang Zonghe is a veteran of Penghua Fund investment. His latest management scale is 31 billion yuan. The representative fund of his long-term performance is Penghua consumer preferred. Subject to the weak performance of consumer stocks, the fund lost 10.23% last year, about 5 percentage points behind the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in the same period.
From the operation of the whole year last year, in the first three quarters of last year, with the continuous decline of consumer stocks, the overall shareholding position gradually decreased, and the shareholding position of the fund he managed was cut by up to 20 percentage points in the third quarter. In the rebound of consumer stocks in the fourth quarter, the operation of adding positions was appropriately carried out.
Another noteworthy is the cash position. In the third quarter, the reverse repurchase position of the fund was 13%, and the bank deposit was 20.66%. The two low-risk asset positions totaled 34%, showing the cautious mood of the fund manager.
Heavy holdings are currently Baijiu, medicine, new energy, electronics and other balanced configuration, compared to the first quarter of 2021, also significantly reduced the shareholding concentration. At present, the largest heavy warehouse stock Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , accounting for only 5.81%, a year-on-year decrease of 5 percentage points. The proportion of other heavy positions is also in the range of 2% – 6%, which is significantly lower than the shareholding ratio of 3% – 10% at the end of 2020.
In terms of the concentration of the top ten heavy positions, the latest top ten shareholding ratio was 41%, which also decreased by more than 30 percentage points year-on-year.
On the whole, the consumption theme fund has been difficult in the past year. Wang Zong used to reduce his shareholding position, increase the proportion of cash assets and reduce the shareholding concentration to tide over the difficulties.
Wang Zonghe said in the four seasons that 2021 will undoubtedly be a difficult year for the style of adhering to in-depth research, long-term shareholding, low turnover rate and valuing long-term value growth space. However, in the long-term chain of equity investment in the A-share market and even all over the world, value investment is still the most effective and executable investment method verified for a long time, and it is an investment idea that can create value for holders. We firmly believe in our ability in this regard.
In the fourth quarter of 2021 and even in the future, his investment work includes: first, under the background of profound changes in the background of the times, evaluate the long-term ecological environment of the industry in which the individual shares are held, the certainty of the company’s long-term growth, and fully measure their value space. He also firmly believes in the ability to fully evaluate these changes and create value for the holder in the long term. Second, while unswervingly doing in-depth research, he has also made a lot of progress in expanding the ability circle. He hopes to find excellent tracks and excellent companies in some new industries and earn the benefits of the value growth of these enterprises for investors.
“In the medium and long term, under the background of technological innovation, China’s economy will produce more new industrial ecology and breed more excellent companies. We will look for more opportunities in these companies that can realize value growth space.” Wang Zong.
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