In 2021, the proposal of “double carbon” policy pushed green assets into the air, the concept of metal went off, and many varieties even reached a new high for several years. The bull market of “periodic table of elements” lasted for several months.
In 2022, the policy will continue. Will the dream journey of “big a element periodic table” continue? The reporter takes you to look forward to the trend of six popular metals.
Beginning of 2022
The myth of “tin” cow
After the global championship in 2021
In 2022, the metal tin stock market and the period welcome a “good start”
As of January 21
Since the beginning of the year, Lunxi futures have increased by more than 10%
Yunnan Tin Co.Ltd(000960) rose 13.93%
According to the research of CITIC futures, in 2022, the growth of global tin supply and demand slowed down, the supply speed was slightly faster, the global tin shortage narrowed, the market maintained a shortage situation, and the tin price may remain high, or even higher. The average price of Lunxi is expected to be US $36000 per ton, with a fluctuation range of US $30000 to US $45000 per ton.
Note: in 2021, Lunxi futures and Yunnan Tin Co.Ltd(000960) the leading target of A-Shares increased by 91.57% and 74.37% respectively, and the annual line realized “two consecutive Yang” and “three consecutive Yang” respectively.
As of January 21
Lun nickel futures rose more than 15% in the first year
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) and Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) decreased by 5.99% and 4.47% respectively
Jinrui futures said that the overall supply and demand of nickel market will be prosperous in 2022, and the supply will be tight in the first half of the year. It is expected that the nickel price will maintain a strong shock trend, and (Lun nickel) may decline to US $15000-18000 / ton in the second half of the year.
Note: in 2021, the cumulative increases of Lun Ni futures and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) leading targets of A-Shares reached 24.95%, 39.41% and 17.27% respectively, and the annual line achieved “three consecutive positive”.
As of January 21
Since the beginning of the year, Lun copper futures have risen by more than 1%
The underlying stock Jiangxi Copper Company Limited(600362) rose 0.45%
GF futures said that the supply of raw materials has entered the high production period, and there is no obvious bright spot in demand. The demand for clean energy is affected by the low base. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate weakly throughout the year. The main operation range of Shanghai copper futures is 60000-72000 yuan / ton, and the LME copper operation range is 8200-9900 US dollars / ton.
Note: in 2021, the cumulative increase of Jiangxi Copper Company Limited(600362) of Lun copper futures and A-share leading target reached 25.81% and 12.38% respectively, and the annual line achieved “three consecutive positive”.
As of January 21
Since the beginning of the year, Lun aluminum futures have risen by more than 9%
Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) fell 4.11%
Nanhua Futures Co.Ltd(603093) said that in 2022, the overall fundamentals of the aluminum market will show a weak pattern of supply and demand, the release of production capacity will continue to be blocked, the driving force of new energy demand is limited, the export growth is expected to slow down, the price support of alumina and coal on the cost side is weakened, and the center of gravity of aluminum price has room to move down. It is estimated that the operation range of Shanghai aluminum futures price is 16000-21000 yuan / ton and that of Lun aluminum is 2000-2800 dollars / ton.
Note: in 2021, the cumulative increase of Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) of Lun aluminum futures and A-share leading target reached 42.43% and 67.77% respectively, and the annual line achieved “two consecutive positive” and “three consecutive positive” respectively.
As of January 21
Since the beginning of the year, Lun zinc futures have risen by more than 2%
Huludao Zinc Industry Co.Ltd(000751) fell 3.09%
Founder medium-term futures pointed out that the supply-demand balance pattern of zinc city will be further tightened in the first half of the year. With the large supply in the second half of the year, the zinc city is expected to fall back at a high level, and the first half of the year will be stronger than the second half of the year. It is estimated that the annual center of gravity of zinc price in 2022 is 23000 yuan / ton, and the fluctuation range is 20000-25000 yuan / ton.
Note: in 2021, the cumulative increase of Huludao Zinc Industry Co.Ltd(000751) of Lun zinc futures and the leading target of A-Shares reached 28.65% and 9.30% respectively, and the annual line realized “two consecutive Yang” and “three consecutive Yang” respectively.
As of January 21
The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 333600 yuan / ton
It has increased by 25.41% since 2022
Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) since this year
Decreased by 14.17% and 23.34% respectively
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the Ministry of industry and information technology proposed to promote the acceleration of China’s lithium resource development. It is expected that companies with China’s lithium resource layout will benefit significantly in 2022 under the background of maintaining strong lithium price, and salt lake lithium extraction technology and equipment suppliers will also usher in a golden development period of order growth.
Note: in 2021, the annual cumulative increase of industrial grade lithium carbonate according to the statistics of business society reached 432%; The leading targets of A-Shares Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) and Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) rose 41.41% and 172.47% respectively, and the annual lines achieved “three consecutive positive”.
