This week, the annual report disclosure of A-share listed companies began. At the same time, more and more pharmaceutical companies issued performance forecasts and performance letters. In the context of industry adjustment, which pharmaceutical sub industries or companies can achieve good performance is the focus of the market.
In addition, during the new release cycle from January 14 to January 20, 9 innovative drug projects from Beijing Aosaikang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002755) , Hansen pharmaceutical, Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) , Zhixiang medicine, etc. were approved clinically for the first time, and the people’s finance · innovative drug index increased by 0.79% to 2338.66 points.
large area pre hi in the pharmaceutical industry
At the time of the 2021 annual report disclosure quarter, the number of Listed Companies in the pharmaceutical industry issuing performance forecasts and performance letters increased intensively. According to the statistics of the securities times, as of January 20, 74 listed companies in the pharmaceutical and biological industry have issued performance forecasts or performance letters for 2021. Based on the median predicted net profit, the net profit of 60 of these companies increased in 2021, accounting for 80%.
In general, the net profit of 6 companies such as Chimin Health Management Co.Ltd(603222) , Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , Shenzhen Salubris Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(002294) , Zhejiang Conba Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600572) , Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) , Teyi Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002728) is expected to increase by more than 200%, that of 12 companies such as Wuhan Easy Diagnosis Biomedicine Co.Ltd(002932) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Guangdong Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002317) is expected to increase by more than 100%, and that of 26 companies such as Hangzhou Biotest Biotech Co.Ltd(688767) , soaring pharmaceutical, Zhejiang Garden Bio-Chemical High-Tech Co.Ltd(300401) is expected to increase by more than 30%.
From the analysis of the reasons for the change of predicted performance, some of these companies with pre increased performance belong to endogenous growth, some increase due to the low performance base in 2020, and some increase due to the high growth of their subdivided industries. Overall, high growth companies are mainly concentrated in CXO, API, IVD, diagnostic consumables, pharmaceutical equipment and other sectors. Some personalized and competitive companies have also achieved good performance, while there are few endogenous high growth groups in pharmaceutical enterprises.
In recent years, thanks to the global industrial chain transfer, Chinese engineers’ bonus, cost advantage, the acceleration of drug examination reform and the upgrading of drug innovation, Chinese CXO enterprises have shown an ultra-high prosperity. In 2021, CXO enterprise performance continued to maintain strong growth. Recently, Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) are expected to increase net profit by more than 50% in 2021. Among them, Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) revenue growth is expected to reach a record high, which can be seen from the high momentum of CXO sector.
There are hidden worries behind not too high growth. For example, calculated according to the median predicted net profit, the non net profit deducted from Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) decreased by about 6% month on month in the fourth quarter of 2021, and the non net profit deducted from Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) decreased by about 34% month on month, or there are signs of weak growth. In this regard, according to the analysis of insiders, the capacity of China’s cdmo enterprises has expanded rapidly, the era of overcapacity may come ahead of schedule, and the future performance growth rate may decrease marginally year by year.
In the covid-19 reagent sector, which has received strong attention recently, 9 enterprises have released performance forecasts for 2021. From the forecast, the performance of individual stocks in the sector is generally high, of which Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) , Wuhan Easy Diagnosis Biomedicine Co.Ltd(002932) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Guangdong Hybribio Biotech Co.Ltd(300639) are expected to increase by more than 100% in 2021, and Jiangsu Bioperfectus Technologies Co.Ltd(688399) , Hangzhou Biotest Biotech Co.Ltd(688767) are expected to increase by more than 50% in 2021.
The data show that in 2021, the export value of covid-19 reagent continued to decline after the peak in April, but the demand for covid-19 detection broke out again in the fourth quarter due to the resurgence of overseas epidemic. The industry expects that with the implementation of covid-19 rapid test plan in the United States, the demand for domestic covid-19 reagents will surge.
Due to the rapid development of biomedical industry, there is a strong demand for diagnostic consumables and pharmaceutical equipment, and the performance of relevant enterprises is good.
For example, Truking Technology Limited(300358) it is estimated that the profit in 2021 will be 500-600 million yuan, an increase of 149.33% – 199.20% over the same period of last year. During the reporting period, the company focused on the development of biopharmaceutical equipment and has basically completed the layout of biopharmaceutical front-end equipment. Suzhou Nanomicro Technology Co.Ltd(688690) it is expected to realize a net profit of 168-185 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 131.11% to 154.50%. Suzhou Nanomicro Technology Co.Ltd(688690) said that the rapid development of China’s biopharmaceutical industry has created an urgent demand for domestic separation and purification chromatographic fillers and chromatographic media products with excellent performance, stable supply and reasonable price.
Some personalized and competitive companies also achieved high growth in 2021. For example, based on Yantai Zhenghai Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300653) in the field of regenerative medicine, the net profit is expected to increase by 30% – 50% in 2021. The company said that in 2021, the company’s brand influence and product competitiveness will continue to improve, the market demand will continue to improve, and the sales revenue will further increase compared with the same period of last year. The Iray Technology Company Limited(688301) of the digital X-ray detector produced is expected to achieve a net profit of 450-500 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 102% – 125%. When explaining the reasons for performance growth, Iray Technology Company Limited(688301) said that in 2021, the company successfully realized the introduction and mass production of multiple strategic key customers. At the same time, the sales of new medical and industrial products maintained rapid growth, and the proportion of dynamic product sales further increased.
In addition, more than 10 pharmaceutical companies expect net profit growth of more than 30% last year, but most of them are due to small performance base or affected by non recurring profits and losses. Among them, Yipinhong Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300723) indicates that the revenue of self-developed products will increase rapidly in 2021, and the net profit is expected to increase by 30% – 60%; Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) said that thanks to strengthening market planning and expanding sales channels, the net profit increased by 45.55% in 2021.
North China Pharmaceutical Company.Ltd(600812) rabies monoclonal antibody
enter the administrative approval stage
On January 19, the website of the State Food and drug administration showed that the listing application (acceptance No.: cxss2000039) of North China Pharmaceutical Company.Ltd(600812) class 1 new drug recombinant human anti rabies virus monoclonal antibody injection (common name: omativir monoclonal antibody) has entered the “approval” stage, and the listing application results will be announced soon.
At present, there is no recombinant anti rabies virus monoclonal antibody on the market in China. The only passive immune agents that can be used for the prevention of rabies virus exposure in China are anti rabies serum and rabies patient immunoglobulin. If the successful approval of omativir McAb, it will become the first rabies McAb in China and fill the gap in China’s anti rabies virus McAb drug market.
According to Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) previous estimates, the peak sales of omativir mAb is expected to reach 3 billion yuan and contribute a net profit of 900 million yuan. Recently, North China Pharmaceutical Company.Ltd(600812) said on the investor interaction platform that the new drug company has established the marketing system and team of omutezumab injection. At present, all marketing work is being carried out in an orderly manner.
The R & D Progress of Xingmeng biological rabies monoclonal antibody is second only to North China Pharmaceutical Company.Ltd(600812) . Not long ago, Xingmeng biology announced that its phase III clinical of syn023 reached the end point of the study. It is reported that syn023 is a cocktail therapy containing two humanized monoclonal immunoglobulin antibodies against rabies virus. Xingmeng biology said that it would communicate with CDE based on the phase III clinical research data of syn023 in the near future, and submit the listing registration application of syn023 to the State Food and drug administration.
On January 19, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) independently developed PD-L1 monoclonal antibody adebailimab (R & D Code: shr-1316) was accepted by the drug examination center.
9 innovative drug projects
first approved clinical
In the new release cycle, 9 innovative drug projects from Beijing Aosaikang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002755) , Hansen pharmaceutical, Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) , Zhixiang pharmaceutical, etc. were approved for clinical application for the first time, and we included them in the “people’s finance · innovative drug index”.
Among them, the application for clinical trial of tsn084 tablets of Tali biology was approved by the drug administration on January 17 for the treatment of advanced or metastatic malignant tumors. Its clinical application in the United States was approved by FDA on October 17, 2021 for the treatment of solid tumors.
Askg712 injection of Beijing Aosaikang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002755) was approved on January 15. The indications are: neovascular age-related macular degeneration.
On January 15, Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) oral small molecule PD-L1 inhibitor bpi-371153 capsule was implicitly approved by clinical trial to be used in the treatment of patients with locally advanced or metastatic solid tumor or recurrent / refractory lymphoma. It is understood that at present, there is no approved PD-L1 small molecule inhibitor in the world. Before bpi-371153 of Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) , three oral small molecule PD-L1 inhibitors of Tianjin Chase Sun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300026) amdifen tablets, max-10181 tablets of Zaji medicine and an4005 tablets of Arnold medicine have been approved in China.
In addition, BCMA / CD3 double anti gr1803 injection of Zhixiang medicine, qa108 granule of ophthalmic traditional Chinese medicine of Yinming biology, and cldn18 of Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) 2 innovative varieties such as antibody dr30303 were also approved for clinical use recently. The inclusion of these new components is the main reason for the rise of innovative drug index.
