In 2021, coal prices soared all the way, reaching an all-time high in October. Under the policy intensive regulation, the coal price gradually returned to a reasonable level, but it is still significantly higher than that at the beginning of 2021.
At present, with the implementation of a series of national policies and measures to promote coal production and supply, the tension between coal supply and demand has been alleviated. According to industry analysis, under the situation of increasing production and ensuring supply, the coal production capacity at the supply side will be put into greater efforts, the coal supply capacity will be significantly improved, the annual supply and demand will return to balance, and China’s coal price will drop steadily in 2022.
Affected by factors such as rising coal prices, the operating performance of coal enterprises increased significantly in 2021. China National Energy Group, China’s largest coal enterprise, said on January 21 that in 2021, China National Energy Group completed a coal output of 570 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%; The coal sales volume was 770 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. Meanwhile, in 2021, the national energy group achieved a year-on-year increase of 24.7% in operating revenue, 6% in total profit, 7% in net profit and 10.5% in total labor productivity.
Zhang Yuxin, spokesman of the national energy group, said that in 2021, the group’s main indicators such as total profit, net profit and asset liability ratio were successfully completed, and the enterprise’s business resilience and anti risk ability continued to show.
In addition, Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) announced on January 20 that according to the preliminary calculation of the financial department, the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 to be 4.5 billion yuan, an increase of 3.673 billion yuan to 4.173 billion yuan compared with the same period of the previous year (after retroactive adjustment), an increase of 444.14% to 504.59% over the same period (after retroactive adjustment).
Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) said that due to the continuous improvement of the prosperity of the coal industry and the continuous rise of coal market prices, the profitability of the company has increased significantly. In addition, the company comprehensively implemented lean management, scientifically controlled costs, moderately released advanced production capacity, ensured energy supply, and greatly optimized asset quality.
This round of coal price rise is related to tight coal supply. In the fourth quarter of 2021, in order to cope with the peak coal consumption in winter, the policy level issued temporary nuclear capacity increase, increased import and other supply guarantee measures. Data show that from October to December 2021, China’s raw coal production increased by 4%, 4.6% and 7.2% respectively, of which 380 million tons of coal were produced in December, a record high in the same period.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, China’s coal production hit a record high in 2021. China’s industries above Designated Size produced 4.07 billion tons of raw coal, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, an increase of 5.6% compared with 2019 before the epidemic; The import volume was 320 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, also the highest since 2014.
In 2022, the winter supply guarantee policy has not been withdrawn, and the coal output of large coal enterprises continues to increase. For example, from January 1 to 12, the national energy group produced 21.09 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, of which the self-produced coal on January 6 and 7 was 1.862 million tons and 1.873 million tons respectively, higher than the historical level in the same period.
Shengang Securities pointed out that the recent coal supply guarantee policy is still being implemented. Although there is room for the daily consumption of power plants to rise with the cooling of the cold wave in many parts of the country, due to the high coal inventory, the rise of coal price in the first quarter is expected to be limited. At the same time, with the promotion of the reform of coal pricing mechanism, the fluctuation range of coal price is expected to narrow and gradually move closer to the long-term association price.
Lin Boqiang, President of China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, believes that China will continue to strictly control high energy consumption on the demand side and further curb coal power demand on the supply side. Overall, China’s coal prices will fall steadily this year. In addition, from now to 2030, the annual growth of China’s overall power demand should be controlled at about 3%, and with the gradual substitution of clean energy for coal power, the growth rate of coal power demand will further decline.
According to a research report released by Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , 2022 may be the year when coal prices return to medium-term equilibrium prices. In the context of China’s price regulation, China’s coal price will probably not soar in 2022. The average price of thermal coal may fall back to the level of 850 yuan / ton to 900 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year decrease of about 12% to 15%, but the absolute price will remain high. As the annual long-term association price has a certain room to rise, superimposed on the output growth, the performance of leading listed companies may still increase in 2022.
