The number of patients with chronic metabolic diseases is large, growing rapidly, and the medical burden continues to grow. Chronic metabolic diseases, namely hypertension, hyperglycemia, hyperlipidemia and hyperuricemia, can exist independently and interact with each other. Their complications bring a great risk of death. The death rate of cardiovascular diseases in China reaches 22.94%, which needs special attention. Under the influence of China's accelerated urbanization process and the trend of population aging, the "four high" diseases showed explosive growth, and the number of patients exceeded 100 million. In addition, the large population base of patients and the long course of disease continue to increase the medical burden caused by such diseases. In the case of diabetes, China's medical expenditure has increased from $17 billion 500 million to $165 billion 300 million in 2011-2021 years.
Policies promote the market penetration of chronic metabolic diseases. With the population stratification and innovation demand, domestic drugs are gradually transforming to innovation. In terms of pharmaceutical policies, we have gradually attached importance to the "four high" treatment, which helps to promote the penetration rate, and there is still much room for development in the long term. In terms of drug structure, with the promotion of population stratification and innovation demand, the market dominated by domestic generic drugs in the past will gradually transform to innovation.
There are still differences in innovation demand and innovation certainty for different indications: the Chinese market for chronic metabolic disease drugs exceeded 120 billion yuan in 2018, but compared with European and American developed countries, there are still three low disease awareness rate, treatment rate and control rate, and there is still a large market gap. Under the centralized purchase of generic drugs, the short-term market scale is affected to a certain extent, but it is still stable and good in the long term, and the market shows structural differences. The development prospect of domestic innovative drugs is affected by innovation demand and innovation certainty, with differences:
1) the Diabetes Market: the need for protection of cardiovascular, renal and other organs and the weight loss benefits brought by drugs are attracting more and more attention. SGLT-2 and GLP-1 drugs are still in a fast release period. Overseas innovative drugs are constantly emerging, with high innovation certainty and fierce competition in the R & D market. Opportunities for domestic innovative drugs in the future will mainly appear in GLP-1 related targets and other innovative targets with obvious clinical effects. However, the differentiated competition pattern of China's sglt-2 innovative drugs is still unclear. Among GLP-1 targets, the demand for drug convenience & accessibility is increasing, and has become the core competitive point. For other innovative targets, due to the current drug testing mode, there is still a certain market demand.
2) hyperlipidemia Market: the existing drugs have little effect on refractory diseases, and the market has a strong demand for innovative drugs. Referring to the global market, PCSK9 is the only identified target. Domestic innovative drugs compete in price and R & D speed around long-term and large indications.
3) hyperuricemia Market: the safety of existing drugs is poor, and there is an urgent need for safe and effective innovative drugs. However, looking at the global market, there are few targets and drugs that can be referred to, so it is necessary to track and pay attention to clinical R & D data for a long time.
4) hypertension Market: the demand for innovation and the certainty of innovation are low, and "innovation" mostly focuses on the research and development of compound preparations of existing drugs.
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Risk analysis. Poor capital market environment and tight cash flow of enterprises; The R & D Progress of innovative drugs is less than expected; The centralized purchase of drugs with the same target makes the price competition more difficult; The market volume brought by homogeneous innovation. According to different risk factors, specific risk response methods can be selected for tracking and selection.
