Due to the backlog of office rental demand in the early stage of the epidemic, it was significantly released in 2021. Office buildings in some core areas of Shanghai are even "hard to find the first floor".
According to the latest statistical data recently released by Jones Lang LaSalle, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the net absorption of Shanghai office market reached 371000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 73%, and the office vacancy rates in Pudong and Puxi central business district showed a year-on-year downward trend.
Throughout 2021, the office market in Shanghai also performed well, and the net absorption reached a record high. According to CBRE statistics, the annual net absorption of Shanghai office market is 1298000 square meters, and the demand for relocation and rent expansion accounts for 70%; The quoted rent and effective rent rose for the first time in five years, up 0.7% and 1.2% respectively over the same period in 2020.
It is worth mentioning that the above two institutions said in their statistical reports that in the office leasing activities, the demand of the Industrial Park increased strongly, and the net absorption reached a high point in recent years. The 14th five year plan for the transformation and upgrading of Shanghai Industrial Parks recently released by Shanghai Municipal Commission of economy and information technology (hereinafter referred to as "Shanghai Commission of economy and information technology") also clearly states: "By 2025, we will launch about 5 Park brands with global influence, 50 characteristic industrial parks and 50 boutique micro parks, and build 7 digital transformation demonstration areas and 5 digital new infrastructure benchmark parks."
(distribution map of characteristic industrial parks in Shanghai. Source: Shanghai Economic and Information Technology Commission)
In this regard, CBRE Lihua East Consulting and trading services Ding Zhujun, the person in charge of the business park, told China Business Daily: "in the next six months, it is expected that more than 600000 square meters of business park will be newly supplied. In addition to the core sectors of Zhangjiang, Caohejing and Jinqiao, Qingpu, Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co.Ltd(600648) And Songjiang will also have high-quality projects into the market. With clear industrial positioning and detailed policies and measures, all sectors will give full play to the effect of industrial agglomeration, further expand production and speed up, and build Shanghai into a national industrial highland. "
vacancy rate decreased significantly
Net absorption is the difference between the newly rented and expanded area and the leased area in the office market. The higher the value, the more active the leasing activities. In the past three months, there was only one new supply in Shanghai office market, with a total area of 51000 square meters, and the net absorption reached 371000 square meters.
Jones Lang LaSalle research report shows that in the fourth quarter of 2021, the vacancy rate of office buildings in Shanghai Pudong central business district decreased by 1.3% month on month and 4.0% to 9.9% year-on-year; The vacancy rate in Puxi CBD decreased by 1.7% month on month and 4.9% to 6.0% year-on-year.
"New businesses such as head finance, Internet plus and sophisticated manufacturing have settled in Shanghai, and foreign capital accounts for a continuous rise. The office market has recovered strongly, showing Shanghai's leading position in the strategic layout of emerging industries and the absorption capacity of foreign capital in the opening window city." Zhang Yue, consultant and head of trading services and office building department of CBRE Lihua East, said.
In terms of industry demand, in 2021, the demand of TMT industry dominated by e-commerce, social media, artificial intelligence, big data and financial technology in Shanghai office market ranked first in all industries, accounting for more than 1 / 4. "In the short term, the financial service industry, professional service industry and technology new media industry will be the main driving forces of market demand, and the rent is expected to continue to grow."
According to CBRE statistics, in 2021, a total of 17 new projects entered the Shanghai office market, covering a total area of 1071000 square meters, 1.6 times the delivery volume in 2020. Among them, 60% of the projects are located in the emerging business district. Represented by "Expo Qiantan Xuhui Binjiang", the maturity of the Binjiang core development zone is accelerated.
Specifically, due to the needs of the strategic layout of Chinese foreign enterprises, the proportion of medium and large-scale leasing cases above the whole floor in Shanghai has increased, and the main demand attracted by the core region mainly comes from finance and consumer manufacturing. Relying on the advantages of multiple single family products and good visibility, Binjiang sector accelerates the office agglomeration of the headquarters and the differentiated layout of subdivided departments including TMT and medicine, especially in the whole year; The vacancy rate of Qiantan sector is only 2.6%, which is the lowest in the city, and the rent level also shows a trend of catching up with and surpassing the mature sector.
At the same time, as the ESG (environment society governance) concept has been widely concerned, health and safety has become one of the important demands of office building tenants. Green buildings continued to record higher rent performance, achieving an overall rent premium of more than 20%.
According to Zhang Yue, in the next six months, it is expected that about 870000 square meters of new projects will enter the market, mainly distributed in Xuhui Binjiang, Qiantan, North Bund and Suhe Bay in the waterfront area along the "one river and one river", which will provide high-quality office space for Shanghai to quickly undertake the quality improvement and transformation needs of the centralized exhibition area of the development level and core competitiveness of international metropolis.
the demand for leasing in the park is getting hot
In the past "13th five year plan" period, focusing on the overall goal of industrial development, Shanghai Industrial Park has made continuous efforts in structural adjustment and upgrading and optimizing the business and investment environment, trying to build the brand of "made in Shanghai".
According to the introduction of Shanghai Economic and Information Technology Commission, Shanghai Industrial Park has gradually transformed from the traditional mode of space development and function construction to an operator with industrial ecological services as the core competitiveness, and the development space has entered an era of being driven by increment to relying more on the endogenous drive of stock renewal. The industrial parks are mainly distributed in Lingang New Area, Zhangjiang Science City, Hongqiao Business District, Jinqiao Development Zone, Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co.Ltd(600648) Free Trade Zone, Caohejing Development Zone and other areas.
The development of industrial parks is in full swing, which makes office leasing more frequent. The reporter learned from the forecast data of the above institutions that, next, more than half of the new supply of office buildings in Shanghai will be generated in business parks and industrial parks.
Jones Lang LaSalle said that at present, the overall vacancy rate of Shanghai Industrial Park has reached an all-time low, and the net absorption has reached a new high in recent years. CBRE data also shows that in 2021, 14 new supply projects were delivered in the office market of Shanghai Business Park, with a total supply area of 859000 square meters. The annual net absorption reached 1084000 square meters, breaking through one million square meters for the first time since 2015; The market vacancy rate decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 14.5%.
Among the 147 business park projects in Shanghai according to CBRE statistics, the total leased area is 8.01 million square meters, and the number of enterprises absorbed is 4113. According to the statistical report, in 2021, the rental demand of TMT industry ranked first, accounting for 43%. Among them, as the main demand of game enterprises, a large number of relocation, rent expansion and new headquarters are set up in Caohejing, which has strong industry agglomeration; E-commerce related enterprises choose to complete the upgrading and replacement in the north and airport sectors of Shanghai.
The above report also shows that the biomedical industry ranks second with 23%. Among them, Zhangjiang sector has undertaken more than half of the transaction area, the policy guidance effect is remarkable, and the industrial agglomeration effect is further strengthened; Thanks to the impact of the delivery of biomedical characteristic business park, Pujiang sector also shows strong attraction.
Ding Zhujun said that due to the rise in the rent level of office buildings in various sectors and parks, the average rent quotation in Shanghai climbed to 136.7 yuan per square meter per month, up 3.2% year-on-year, a new high since 2019.
"In 2021, relying on clear industrial positioning and detailed policies and measures, Shanghai will give full play to the industrial agglomeration effect in all sectors, and the office building market in the park will perform well." Ding Zhujun pointed out that with the promotion of the 14th five year plan and the further building of the "3 + 6" key industrial system, the new driving force of the market is expected to continue to be stimulated.
