According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise this week. On January 20, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 332600 yuan / ton, which was 5.72% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 314600 yuan / ton on January 16). On January 20, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 360000 yuan / ton, which was 7.14% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 336000 yuan / ton on January 16).
As of January 20, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market is about 300000 ~ 360000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market is about 340000 ~ 400000 yuan / ton. Business society believes that at present, the logistics market may gradually start to stagnate, and the upstream shipment volume may gradually decrease. Most manufacturers mainly deal with long-term cooperative customers. There are competitive sales among traders, and it is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price will continue to operate at a high level.
In terms of A-share investment, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that the overall valuation of the lithium industry target is low, and the investment in the lithium sector in 2022 focuses on “sustainable growth capacity”. After preliminary adjustment, we assume that the average price of electricity and carbon in 2022-2023 is 200000 yuan / ton, and the average PE of the corresponding lithium sector in 2022-2023 is 30x and 22x respectively, which is significantly lower than the high growth track with lithium demand of 38% CAGR in 2021-2025. Considering that the lithium price has been at a high position and the sensitivity of the sector valuation to price rise has decreased, the excess return of the lithium sector in 2022 will come from the digestion of the company’s short-term valuation by sustainable growth ability and the improvement of long-term valuation. Companies with sustainable growth capacity need to meet three conditions: first, governance mechanism and entrepreneurship, second, internalized industrial capacity, and third, strong investment and financing capacity.
Galaxy Securities pointed out that the new energy vehicle industry chain is booming, the demand for ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate and other downstream products is strong, the downstream manufacturers are active in asking for orders, and the manufacturers will stock up for the Spring Festival at the end of the year, and enlarge the demand for lithium salt in the short term. On the supply side, there is a continuous shortage of lithium concentrate in Australia. After China’s salt lake lithium extraction entered the winter, the output declined. The shutdown and maintenance of large lithium salt plants in Jiangxi, Sichuan and other places at the end of the year will also aggravate the tight supply of lithium salt in China. In December, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate in China increased from 207900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 282400 yuan / ton at the end of the month.
The agency believes that the effective supply increment of global lithium resources is still small in 2022. Driven by the significant release of new energy vehicles and cathode materials, the shortage pattern of lithium resources will continue. It is expected that the supply gap of the lithium industry will expand to 47000 tons of LCE in 2022, and the lithium price is expected to remain high, With the intermittent disturbance of supply and the seasonal expansion of consumption, there is a possibility of further explosive rise. It is suggested to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) .
