The stock indexes of Shenzhen and Shanghai closed a negative adjustment line of continuous record low under the influence and resonance of the high level in the overseas market, the net inflow of funds to the North exceeding RMB 8.7 billion, the "three high" Mao stock limit way to accelerate the clearing of risks, the sharp decline of hot money speculation theme concept stocks, and the reproduction of the influence and resonance of "general decline + sharp decline + sharp decline" in most industry segment indexes, Find the "market bottom" stage for volatility. From the perspective of the Shanghai stock index, low opening and low contraction adjust the low support before the negative line breakdown, or there may be a downward test of 3486 points to support the demand. However, from the perspective of volatility, wave level structure and time cycle, it is expected to usher in a bull attack inflection point to stop the decline and rebound next Tuesday or Wednesday; The negative line of the gem index contraction adjustment initiative has completed the gap replenishment of 3039 points, or there is an inertia test of 2950 points to support kinetic energy and potential energy, but the extended structure at the end of the C wave killing structure should be an opportunity to collect cheap chips "against the wind"; Combined with the strong support of Shenzhen Composite Index's negative line close to 13800 points and the operation of the value center of Kechuang 50 index's negative line close to 1250 points, it is expected that the fierce long and short game in the last week of the year before may usher in a turnaround on Tuesday or Wednesday and welcome the "year of the tiger spring" in the red market.
At the close of the market, covid-19 drug concept, Helicobacter pylori, chicken, aquatic products, covid-19 detection, cloud games, anti influenza, pork, aviation, health care, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, oil, meta universe concept, intellectual property rights, generic drugs, biological vaccines, household goods, construction machinery, Internet and other sectors led the decline, with large-scale net outflow of funds, The average volatility exceeds 2.5%, which has a strong negative impact and impact on the index.
Combined with the long short energy ratio, 57 stocks rose by more than 9%, 115 stocks rose by more than 5%, 230 stocks rose by more than 3%, 110 stocks fell by more than 9%, 362 stocks fell by more than 5% and 865 stocks fell by more than 3%, it is expected that the capital market will follow its own internal rules to deduce the operation structure of "policy bottom - market bottom", It is the demand for position adjustment and stock exchange of institutional capital initiative "high-low switching" and "survival of the fittest switching". With the "obvious shrinkage" of trading volume, it is expected that the downward bottom seeking space and time are limited.
On the news front, the State Council meeting stressed that we should put steady growth in a more prominent position, do a good job in the "six stabilities" and "six guarantees", deepen reform and opening up, strengthen cross cycle regulation, strengthen the implementation of macro policies, launch more practical and hard measures to boost effective demand, strengthen supply guarantee and stabilize market expectations, coordinate development and security, and effectively prevent and resolve risks, Strive to stabilize the macro-economic market, achieve relatively full employment and keep the economy running within a reasonable range; Print and distribute the tourism development plan for the 14th five year plan, timely study and judge the prevention and control situation of covid-19 pneumonia outside China and the development and changes of the international environment, scientifically adjust the management measures for relevant personnel to come to China, and actively build a healthy, safe and orderly order of personnel exchanges between China and foreign countries on the premise of ensuring the safety of epidemic prevention; We will build a number of intelligent tourist city, tourist attractions, resort areas and tourist blocks, cultivate a number of intelligent tourism innovation enterprises and key projects, develop digital experience products, develop immersive interactive experience, virtual exhibition, intelligent guide and other new tourism services, and promote the construction of tourism scene represented by "Internet plus".
The national development and Reform Commission and other seven departments issued the implementation plan for promoting green consumption, proposed to explore and implement the parking charge policy conducive to alleviating urban traffic congestion and effectively promoting the priority development of public transport, and gradually expand the cost ladder of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles; Further improve the tiered price system for residential water, electricity and gas, improve the time of use price policy, effectively increase the peak valley price difference and floating range, and guide users to stagger peak energy storage and power consumption; Promote public institutions such as state organs, institutions and organizations to take the lead in purchasing and using new energy vehicles, and equip new and existing parking lots with electric vehicle charging facilities or reserve the installation conditions of charging facilities; Actively promote green office, improve the use efficiency of office equipment and assets, encourage paperless office and double-sided printing, and encourage the use of recycled products; Establish a linkage mechanism between green power trading and renewable energy consumption responsibility weight, and market-oriented users complete the renewable energy consumption responsibility weight by purchasing green power or green certificate; Continue to promote the innovative development of intelligent photovoltaic, vigorously promote the application of building photovoltaic, and accelerate the proportion of residents' green power consumption; Promote the large-scale development of green buildings and low-carbon buildings, comprehensively promote green and low-carbon building materials, promote the recycling of building materials, and encourage qualified areas to carry out green and low-carbon building materials to the countryside; Encourage the use of energy-saving and water-saving products such as energy-saving lamps, energy-saving and environmental protection stoves and water-saving toilets, and accelerate the application of biomass energy, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) and other renewable energy in rural life; Vigorously promote new energy vehicles, gradually eliminate restrictions on the purchase of new energy vehicles in various regions, and promote the implementation of supporting policies such as free travel and right of way; Strengthen the construction of supporting infrastructure such as charging for electricity, new energy storage and hydrogenation, actively promote the development of vehicle and marine LNG, promote the pilot application of new energy vehicle power exchange mode, and orderly carry out the demonstration application of fuel cell vehicles; We will vigorously promote the electrification of vehicles in the public domain, increase the proportion of new energy vehicle applications such as urban public transport, taxi (including online car Hailing), sanitation, urban logistics and distribution, postal express, civil aviation airport and public affairs of Party and government organs, and clarify the potential energy and potential energy of the stock indexes of Shenzhen and Shanghai that fully release the risks, but make analysis and evaluation based on the perspective of investment in 2022, It is expected that this round of sharp sell-off risk release at the beginning of the year should be a better opportunity to collect cheap chips against the wind.
The author believes that the long-term trend of China's fundamentals from stable to good has not changed, the financial market will remain open and steady in 2022, and the RMB exchange rate will play a good role in stabilizing the macro economy and adjusting the automatic stabilizer of the balance of payments, which is the core and key to the stable operation of the capital market throughout the year. Accelerate the popularization and application of new energy and clean energy transportation equipment in combination with the 14th five year plan for green transportation development. The proportion of new energy vehicles in new or updated public transport, rental, logistics and distribution vehicles in the national ecological civilization Experimental Zone and key areas of air pollution prevention and control shall not be less than 80%; Banks in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places officially cut mortgage interest rates by 5 basis points on the 21st; Hainan has set a GDP growth target of about 9% in 2022 and Inner Mongolia's GDP growth target of about 6% in 2022. Qinghai will accelerate the construction of a world-class Salt Lake industrial base in 2022. It is expected that the core benefits include semiconductors, components, lithography machines, MCU chips, new materials, data centers, industrial machines, 5g, artificial intelligence, Internet of things, quantum technology, aviation, metauniverse, communication equipment New energy vehicles, it equipment, UHV, industrial Internet and other sectors may follow the market for active technical adjustment, but in the medium-term trend, this "headwind" node should be an excellent asset allocation time window for investors to pick up cheap chips. (Note: the above information is only for reference and not for specific operation suggestions. There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious.)
Author: Zhang Cuixia, chief investment adviser of Jufeng investment
Attachment: daily analysis diagram of different indexes
(daily analysis diagram of Shanghai stock index 2022-1-21)
(daily analysis diagram of gem index 2022-1-21)
