In 2021, driven by the goal of "carbon peak, carbon neutralization" and the unexpected growth of new energy vehicles, the power battery industry will usher in a development outlet. The market is in short supply, enterprises expand their production one after another, and the capital market is surging... Making the power battery industry no different in 2021. Recently, after visiting a number of enterprises, the reporter found that behind the hot market, there are still problems such as insufficient supply of upstream raw materials, great uncertainty in disruptive technology R & D and shortage of R & D personnel, which seriously restrict the benign development of the industry.
"Changpo track" also faces short-term adjustment
In 2021, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery market continued to be in "short supply". The reporter conducted a survey in Jiangsu, the development highland of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery industry, and found that a number of leading enterprises have been full of orders in 2022, and some enterprises have even rejected new orders.
According to the Research Report of AVIC securities, from January to November 2021, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery installed capacity reached 128.3gwh, a year-on-year increase of 153%. China Automobile Industry Association predicts that in 2022, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will reach 5 million, with a year-on-year increase of 47%.
Good expectations drive the accelerated expansion of power battery industry. According to the published data, the total planned capacity of enterprises including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , China Innovation airlines, honeycomb energy, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , vision power, Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Ruipu energy, etc. will reach 3twh by 2025.
"The operation capacity of large-scale production capacity is also one of the core capabilities of power battery enterprises." Wang Xiaoqiang, vice president of AVIC lithium, believes that under the current market situation, the stable supply capacity of enterprises is an important factor to seize the market.
Yang Kai, Secretary General of Jiangsu power and energy storage battery industry innovation alliance, believes that at present, the total planned production capacity is very large, but the production capacity of truly marketable products is not enough.
It is worth noting that, as an investment hotspot in the capital market in 2021, the power battery industry ushered in a wave of in-depth adjustment from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022. From December 10, 2021 to January 10, 2022, the cumulative decline was more than 17%. Many brokerage institutions said that due to the excessive increase in the early stage, the lithium battery industry may usher in an adjustment period in 2022.
three uncertainties deserve attention
On the one hand, there are optimistic development expectations and on the other hand, there are "voting with feet" in the capital market. In the interview, the reporter found that the "fragmented performance" of the power battery industry is mainly affected by three uncertain factors.
First, key raw materials are out, and there are security risks in the supply chain. Although China's power battery industry has strong market competitiveness from a global perspective, it can not be ignored that under the existing technical route, the lithium, cobalt and other raw materials contained in high-energy density ternary lithium batteries are heavily dependent on imports, which is why many leading enterprises, including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , are "looking out" for minerals in 2021.
"The world's Cobalt reserves are concentrated in Congo (DRC), Australia and other countries, and there are many variables in whether the supply can be stable." Yang Kai said.
At the same time, the high dependence on imports of raw materials has also led to "intestinal obstruction" in the production capacity application of power batteries.
He Shengkui, chief operating officer of honeycomb energy, said that China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery manufacturers have sufficient processing capacity for lithium ore, but there is a shortage of lithium ore supply. "Now some manufacturers are hoarding goods, which further exacerbates the rise in the price of raw materials. Therefore, it seems that each company's capacity planning is very amazing, but there is still a question mark whether it can be fulfilled."
Second, there is a question mark when disruptive technologies will be realized. Blind expansion is easy to "drift". In recent years, concepts such as solid-state battery, cobalt free battery and sodium ion battery have emerged one after another. "The technical route including sodium ion battery and solid-state battery has been studied for a long time." Yang Kai said that in recent years, although some enterprises have made major breakthroughs in the disruptive technology field of batteries from time to time, few have really mass produced and won market recognition. "We all see the hope of short-term breakthrough, but how short is the short-term? Three years or five years. In fact, no one is accurate."
It is worth noting that the first battery leading enterprises such as Japan and South Korea have made patent layout on multiple technical routes. If China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery enterprises want to "overtake by changing lanes" or face greater technical challenges. Many respondents said that under the background of "nearly 200 million yuan investment is required for 1GWh capacity", enterprises should grasp the rhythm of capacity expansion.
Third, the shortage of technical talents makes the industry competition enter the "hand to hand war" too early. "None of the members of the enterprise's R & D team has not received a call from a headhunter", "the salary should be doubled at least when they change jobs", "the car with the recruitment information will turn around the factory"... The reporter found in the interview that due to the serious shortage of talent supply in China, the competition for talents by relevant enterprises has entered the state of "close combat", and some enterprises have even started "captive breeding", That is, after hiring R & D personnel with high salary, let these personnel engage in relatively low-end work, just to make other enterprises unable to recruit people.
"Often when a new battery factory is put into operation, it is easy to have an impact on the personnel team of other enterprises." A person in charge of the enterprise said.
Many insiders said that with the help of capital, head power battery enterprises have opened the "buy buy" mode, but the training of talents can not be completed in the short term. In the next period of time, the shortage of talents will become an important factor restricting the development of the industry.
leading enterprises are the focus
Many respondents predicted that the power battery industry will undergo structural differentiation in 2022 after experiencing rapid growth in 2021.
Shanghai Electric Group Company Limited(601727) the relevant person in charge of GuoXuan New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. believes that the high investment characteristics of power batteries make the cell capacity that needs heavy asset investment concentrated in the hands of the first few companies. Driven by the price increase factors such as raw materials and labor costs, it is difficult for "small and medium-sized players" who lack scale effect to have market space. Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, believes that in 2022, there may be a process from insufficient capacity to overcapacity for lithium batteries, which will increase industry competition, and leading enterprises have more advantages.
Specifically, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) research report predicts that, affected by the rising cost of upstream raw materials, the price of batteries may increase by 5% to 10% in 2022, and the shipment volume of core companies is expected to double. From the perspective of specific industrial chain, lithium carbonate, diaphragm and copper foil may be tight all year round. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in the middle of the industrial chain and lithium resources leading enterprises with large price elasticity.
According to the Research Report of AVIC securities, affected by the factors of battery plant expansion, the high growth certainty of lithium battery equipment is strong, and those leading lithium battery equipment companies with technology and product advantages will occupy a larger market share.
