At the beginning of the new year in 2022, the style of the A-share market changed rapidly, the new energy and military industry sectors were facing heavy losses, and some funds have fallen greatly since the beginning of the year. According to public data, as of January 20, there were more than 200 active partial stock funds with a decline of more than 10% this year, of which Changan Xinxi and Changan Yusheng under Chang’an fund had the largest decline. In just 13 trading days since the beginning of the year, the net value of A-share units of the two funds had plummeted by 22.25% and 22.11% respectively. Such a large decline in the short term was shocking and looked like a bear market.
It is worth noting that the two funds have suffered losses in the structural market last year, with the unit net value falling by 16.87% and 18.29% respectively, while the average return of active equity funds last year was about 9%. It is incredible that the net values of these two funds have fallen continuously.
Active equity funds with large decline since 2022
Since this year, banks, real estate and household appliances have led the increase. Last year, public funds that concentrated on holding new energy also began to actively adjust positions and exchange shares in the rapid switching of market style.
According to the reporter’s industry research, at present, some high performing public offerings actively increase positions in undervalued sectors such as banks and real estate, so as to obtain the opportunity to repair the valuation of such undervalued sectors, and build the “safety margin” of the fund portfolio from the valuation advantage; Some public offerings continue to stick to high-profile industries such as new energy, chips and military industry, and look for individual stocks with more certainty and reasonable valuation advantages to invest in the overall overvalued value of the industry; Some public investors uphold the concept of “balanced allocation” and hold high boom and undervalued sectors to disperse the pressure of sharp market fluctuations.
undervalued sector favored
public offering actively increased positions in banking and real estate sectors
A number of fund managers interviewed by reporters said that for the sake of valuation safety, they carried out position adjustment and stock exchange at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. The main direction of position increase is the undervalued direction of banks, real estate and finance.
A medium-sized public offering investment director in Beijing said that he would pay attention to the safety margin of valuation in his investment. When the valuation of new energy was high in the fourth quarter of last year, the company’s investment research judged that it was unlikely that new energy would continue to exceed the expected growth in terms of Fundamentals and performance, and began to tend to balanced allocation in terms of asset allocation. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the company reduced its positions in new energy stocks and increased its positions in banks and real estate stocks. At present, its shareholding positions are at a medium and high level. In the portfolio configuration, the positions of banks, real estate, new energy and other sectors are in a balanced situation.
According to the analysis of the investment director, at present, among the undervalued sectors such as banking, real estate and household appliances, he is more optimistic about the banking sector. Due to the bright growth of the bank’s performance in the fourth quarter of last year, the performance disclosed in the recent fourth quarter report has a good performance, but the banking sector has hardly risen in the last year, which also puts the valuation of bank stocks in a historically low position, This kind of sector has the opportunity to obtain the money for sector valuation and repair. In the financial sector, he also configured brokerage stocks, mainly based on the better expectation of brokerage companies to carry out asset management business. However, due to the cold issuance of asset management products in the first quarter of this year, phased investment opportunities may still need to wait.
As for real estate stocks, he believes that some leading real estate enterprises exploded when they received credit last year, but the real estate industry will not disappear and the industrial status of central enterprises will not be weakened. On the contrary, in the current low real estate valuation, if the enterprise operation data can support the performance, such real estate stocks can be held; However, for some real estate enterprises with operating risks and cash flow problems, such enterprises may be concentrated in private enterprises, so they need to avoid investment risks and select carefully.
A public fund manager with outstanding performance in Shanghai is also optimistic about investment opportunities in real estate stocks based on valuation advantages and reverse investment.
According to the fund manager, since the beginning of the year, the A-share real estate sector has strengthened, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) and other real estate stocks have risen to varying degrees. He actively transferred his investment to undervalued sectors such as real estate and banks. In the past two years, affected by the transformation of economic momentum, non speculation in real estate and other environmental factors, the share price of A-share real estate sector has dropped significantly, and the valuation cost performance has become increasingly prominent after the correction. Nowadays, with undervalued value, low position, low expectation + high dividend and high performance locking, as well as the catalysis of bad out and continuous marginal improvement of policies, the market’s enthusiasm for real estate has increased significantly.
According to the analysis of the fund manager, first, China’s urbanization is still “incomplete”, and the transition from incomplete stage to mature stage will be a growth dividend worthy of attention in the future of the real estate industry. Second, from the perspective of valuation, the roe of CSI 800 real estate index is still close to 14%, and the PE index is only 7 times, which makes the valuation cost-effective. In addition, the high dividend of nearly 5% in the past year provides a high-quality safety cushion, and the sector is at a low allocation level in fund allocation, and policy guidance is also gradually resolving industry risks.
Liu Ankun, fund manager of RONGTONG reverse strategy, recently expressed his optimism about finance and real estate, “There are mainly two promising industries in the future. The first is to highlight the value of high-quality financial stocks: on the one hand, the banking sector can choose stocks on the left; on the other hand, the brokerage sector pays attention to the short-term beta market. The second is the adjustment or position increase of the real estate and infrastructure industry chain. From the perspective of long-term investment, under the premise of real estate without speculation, the competition pattern of real estate will be gradually optimized and can be affected The relevant opportunities beneficial to the optimization process are worth long-term investment because the valuation of the relevant subject matter is generally below 10x. Recently, steady growth value stocks are subject to periodic pressure, which is a good time to adjust or layout. “
However, some fund managers said frankly that there was no large-scale position adjustment and stock exchange. “In fact, our position has not changed much, and we have not made industry level switching according to market expectations.” A fund manager in Shanghai said that this year’s opportunities are comprehensive, and all industries have opportunities, because the recovery is the recovery of the whole economy, focusing on individual stocks. He believes that tapping opportunities at the company level may be a way to match the market this year.
“In fact, our recent adjustment is not big. We have made some adjustments between November and December last year, mainly in consumption, finance and so on.” A fund manager said that this year, it will pay more attention to the undervalued sector and pay more attention to opportunities in home appliances, building materials, banking, real estate and other fields.
A public fund manager in South China also admitted that due to the extreme market style, in this case, his shareholding position has not been adjusted much, but the internal views and differences of the company are also large. They are doing a good job in product investment according to their own investment logic and product positioning.
In addition, Furong Fund said that for the banking sector, the market has basically formed consistent expectations for water release, and the central bank’s operation has been gradually verified recently. Under the official expression of physical workload and wide credit expectation in the first quarter, the bank interest margin is expected to improve. However, considering the structural situation of real economic development and bank credit logic, the actual investment direction is still worth tracking. In the future, it is recommended to pay attention to banks with strong wealth management and strong local economy.
the high boom sector is still bullish for a long time
need fixed investment and long holding period to match
While almost unanimously optimistic about the “safety cushion” of the undervalued sector, there are many differences in the views of fund managers on new energy and other sectors with high valuation.
The manager of a large public technology fund in Beijing said that he had not made a short position adjustment on the relevant subject recently. The fund manager is still optimistic about the new energy sector. In terms of investment, he will pay more attention to tapping investment opportunities from the middle reaches of the new energy industry chain.
The fund manager said that the recent fluctuations in the new energy sector are indeed relatively large, which is influenced by many factors, but more at the capital and transaction levels. Perhaps some funds, from a certain point of view, feel as if the sector has risen a lot and want to cash in some to buy lower assets. These behaviors will lead to certain fluctuations and adjustments in the sector. However, the share price increase of a large number of leading new energy companies in 2021 is lower than the increase in sales performance. In other words, the valuation of these leading companies has shrunk compared with the end of 2020. The rise of these companies is mainly driven by performance. After the recent performance forecast, it also brings corresponding stock price performance.
The fund manager believes that objectively speaking, stock assets are assets with high yield in the long run, but its volatility is very large. It is more necessary to match through a relatively long holding period, so as to obtain its real income. Among them, the volatility of the new energy sector is relatively more obvious, so for new energy themed funds, this model will be more suitable for investors to deal with through fixed investment. Moreover, indeed, from historical experience, it is very difficult to operate the band, whether it is for most basic people or even professional investors.
Looking forward to the future, he is more optimistic about the middle reaches of the new energy industry chain. The specific investment logic is as follows. Firstly, most leading companies in the middle reaches of the new energy industry chain have survived the industry reshuffle from 2017 to 2019, indicating that they have good competitiveness. Secondly, the resource endowment of the upstream link is indeed valuable, but huge profits will attract a lot of capital to develop such resources, which will return to the mean in the medium and long term; The downstream field is the field where real large market value enterprises can be born, but it may be necessary to observe who the big winners are in the future. Therefore, the certainty of the middle reaches is higher. Finally, any link in the middle reaches of the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) industrial chain has strong competitiveness. China’s batteries and battery materials are globally competitive by beating the existence of any foreign competitors.
The above director of Beijing medium-sized public offering investment is not optimistic about the short-term performance of the new energy sector, while other fund managers hope to find structural opportunities for subdivided industries from the differentiation of the new energy industry.
According to the analysis of the above director of Beijing medium-sized public offering investment, compared with 2021, it is unlikely that the prosperity of the new energy sector will further exceed expectations, and the probability of continued sharp rise in the stock price is relatively small. In the future, the stock price is likely to absorb the overvalued value horizontally. Although the long-term prosperity is promising, the time cost paid in the short term is relatively large. The military industry sector in the high view has good fundamentals and good performance in the overall industry. At present, it is mainly to grasp the valuation and tap the investment opportunities of military stocks with reasonable valuation.
Xie Yi, fund manager of Nord fund, said that the opportunities at the industry level of new energy should be weaker than last year, and the high or inflection point of the growth rate of emerging industries will gradually approach. Of course, it is possible to continue at a high level for a few more years, which depends on the policies for the new energy industry at home and abroad. However, opportunities can always be found at the individual stock level, just like in any other industry. In fact, the probability of opportunities in the new energy industry is higher than that in other industries.
“The current correction also makes the valuation of some enterprises attractive, but we think these are opportunities at the individual stock level, not at the industry level.” Xie Yi said.
“The long-term trend of new energy is clear. After adjustment, we can look for internal structural opportunities.” Wang haobing, manager of ChuangJin Hexin digital economy fund, also said.
However, in addition to the differences between fund managers on new energy and undervalued sectors, more fund managers prefer to allocate high-profile and undervalued values in a balanced manner to obtain structural opportunities in various segments.
AXA Pudong Bank Fund said that under the current China easing cycle, short-term market structural opportunities will be strengthened, but the overseas risks of the United States entering the interest rate hike cycle also need to be paid attention to. Looking ahead to the market in 2022, we focus on three major allocation directions. First, the main line of steady growth, including household appliances, building materials, infrastructure, banks and securities companies; Second, the main line of new energy, such as future energy revolution, new energy vehicles and photovoltaic, is still worthy of medium and long-term configuration; Third, the main line of consumption, such as mass consumption and local wine.
A new fund manager with excellent performance of “fixed income +” in Beijing also said that in terms of equity positions, A-Shares were adjusted more at the beginning of this year, but the stock market valuation itself was in a relatively neutral position, and the differentiation between industries was relatively large. In his investment in the new fund, he will pay more attention to balanced allocation. First, the benefit sectors of stable growth policies, such as investment opportunities in sectors related to stable growth policies such as new infrastructure industrial chain and consumption upgrading; Second, pay attention to investment opportunities in military industry, new energy, semiconductor and other sectors with high landscape; Third, pay attention to the recovery opportunities of the epidemic damaged sector.
market shock does not change follow-up opportunities
Nuggets structural market
For the A-share market since the beginning of the year, many fund managers are not too pessimistic and believe that short-term market fluctuations are normal. Under the background of steady growth, there are still structural markets in the follow-up.
“The behavior of the short-term market is always difficult to understand and there is no way to predict. Nevertheless, the current situation of A-Shares is reasonable.” Xie Yi said that the relevant industries benefiting from the interest rate cut have rebounded significantly, especially the financial and real estate sector. Although the overall market rebound originally expected in the interest rate cut did not appear in the market, it may be caused by the lagging response of the capital side, or it may be that the market needs to see more solid data before entering the market, or the market bought Hong Kong stocks with more reasonable valuation and more cost-effective. When the Hong Kong stocks are repaired to a certain extent, A-Shares will keep up. In the long run, China’s economic recovery is in progress, policies are taking care of the market, and there is no problem in the general direction.
Xie Yi further said that at present, it is mainly the selection of individual stocks, and the final combination is relatively balanced. There may be opportunities from consumption to manufacturing, from finance to cycle. A large number of companies with excellent growth begin to appear at reasonable prices, focusing on the selection of individual stocks.
Wang haobing also said that the recent market adjustment may be worried about the tightening of overseas liquidity on the one hand and lack of confidence in the progress of steady growth on the other hand. China’s monetary policy is dominated by China, and the follow-up of steady growth will continue to work. Therefore, we are not pessimistic about the follow-up market.
“In the first quarter, we were more optimistic about the pan infrastructure industry chain, CPI related industry chain and boom growth fields. At present, the main market risk points are that the tightening of overseas liquidity exceeded expectations and China’s steady growth did not meet expectations.” Wang haobing said.
Yang Jianhua, investment director of Great Wall Fund, said that the market is worried about whether the steady growth policy can be implemented, so the trend is relatively weak, and there is a certain pressure on individual stocks with high valuation. When the overall valuation center of the market is still moving downward, such as new energy, medicine, food and beverage, it may still need to continue to digest the valuation in the short term.
“What we are concerned about at present is, on the one hand, the individual stocks that suffered more damage due to high cost pressure last year. After the cost pressure is reduced this year, there will be some repair opportunities. On the other hand, we are undervalued companies, including home appliances, building materials, banks, real estate, etc. this year, valuation will be an important consideration for investment.” Yang Jianhua said that the central economic work conference emphasized the word “stability” and believed that the steady growth policy would be implemented and the market expectation would be revised, but it would take time.
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