Looking back on Thursday’s A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock adjustment pattern as a whole. After the general rise of the three major stock indexes in the morning, they fell into adjustment again. Close to the strength of the large financial stocks in the afternoon, which led the stock indexes to turn red again. Unfortunately, the counterattack was limited, and the stock indexes rose and fell again in the afternoon. Finally, the three major indexes closed down.
As mentioned in Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) , on Thursday, the A-share market soared and was blocked, with slight shock consolidation. The central bank cut the one-year and five-year LPR interest rates in the morning, boosting the rise of financial sectors such as banking, insurance, securities and real estate. All funds sought after core assets such as financial sectors and wine making. At the same time, more than 80% of the other sectors and individual stocks fell in an all-round way. The market reappeared the “28 February” pattern, and the Shanghai index basically fluctuated around 3560 points in a narrow range throughout the day.
The institution further analyzed that the strength of the financial sector and core assets shows that investors’ risk aversion has improved, the Shanghai index will still repeatedly test the effectiveness of annual line support in the future. It is suggested to pay close attention to the changes in policy and capital . It is expected that the short-term consolidation of the Shanghai index around the annual line is more likely, and the short-term slight shock of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to wait and see for a while in the short term and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities pointed out that the market continued to fluctuate repeatedly, and the Shanghai index lost its gains and losses in the first half of the year. However, the volume of the two cities can expand slightly, and the net capital inflow to the North exceeds 10 billion. It is expected that the market is expected to stabilize and strengthen, and pay attention to the gains and losses of the annual line and the rotation of the sector. in terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to industries such as finance, steel, food and beverage, household appliances, building materials and building decoration .
In addition, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that the performance of A-Shares on Thursday was poor. On the one hand, the market consensus expectation had been formed due to the reduction of LPR, and the marginal impact was limited. On the other hand, it may be negatively impacted by the sharp correction of the external market. In terms of macro economy, the LPR cut on Thursday was basically in line with the previous consensus expectations of the market, which once again verified the tone and determination of marginal easing in policy to maintain China’s credit performance .
At the same time, 1-year and 5-year LPR interest rates reappear the main reasons for the asymmetric decline . First, the risk of the real estate market has eased, which provides a certain space for the 5-year LPR reduction, but it is difficult to completely relax the regulation of the real estate market, even if there is great downward pressure on the economy, The large-scale real estate credit will no longer be the main means to stimulate the economy in countercyclical regulation, which once again conveys the determination of “housing without speculation”; Second, LPR is not only related to real estate. Recently, the reduction of MLF has reduced the capital cost of banks, and there is room for further adjustment of LPR, so as to boost market confidence and boost the recovery of social credit financing demand.
The agency further pointed out that there will still be loose policies in the future, and the key still lies in the marginal change of credit data. In terms of the general trend of A shares, under the downward trend of the economy, the blue chip targets in the market may gradually usher in structural opportunities , while in a loose environment, the high-quality growth targets with relatively reasonable valuation still have configuration value, so it is recommended to continue to pay attention.
In terms of the future market, Guosheng Securities believes that under the tone of overall stability of market liquidity, the market may still focus on low absorption in the short term, and can actively pay attention to the current hot topics related to the digital economy in the market and look for individual stock opportunities. Operationally, with the end of 2021, the market may be able to open the industry valuation improvement expectations with clear lines of annual report performance, accumulate market opportunities after the festival, and be more cautious about the risks caused by market fluctuations before the year .
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that at present, due to the time node, the market is releasing selling pressure in an orderly manner, and many varieties show certain signs of oversold. In terms of operation, investors still focus on wait-and-see, focusing on the undervalued varieties with good texture but recently killed by mistake, and wait for the market to stabilize spontaneously before proceeding with the follow-up layout .
Macroscopically, Wanlian Securities pointed out that the five-year LPR interest rate was lowered for the first time after 21 months, which gave a positive signal to the real estate related sector: with the loosening of regulatory policies in some regions, the real estate related sector has increased by about 5% since the fermentation of this round of easing expectations, maintaining a leading position in the Shenwan primary industry. the central bank’s reduction of the five-year LPR interest rate has a positive impact on the real estate market, and the prosperity of the industry is expected to rebound .
On the one hand, the cost of medium and long-term loans for real estate enterprises will be reduced, which will help boost the investment and willingness of real estate enterprises to start new construction; On the other hand, the reduction of mortgage interest rate is conducive to stimulating reasonable housing consumption demand. With the marginal relaxation of real estate financial policies, the real estate, building materials and building decoration sectors are expected to continue to improve. At the same time, high-quality companies in the post cycle consumption sector of real estate may have a bright performance.
In addition, “wide money + wide credit” aims to “stabilize growth”, it is suggested to pay attention to consumption, infrastructure sector and undervalued financial sector : before the subsequent financial data and economic indicators in the first quarter are substantially improved, it is expected that the central bank will maintain the policy tone of total marginal relaxation, take multiple measures to promote “wide credit” and promote “stable growth”. in this context, it is expected to periodically catalyze the market of undervalued sectors such as banks and securities companies. Combined with the fact that the performance of large listed companies in banks and non bank financial sectors exceeds expectations, the leading position in the industry is expected to be further consolidated .
In terms of operation strategy, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) mentioned that paid attention to four investment main lines in the restless market in spring: first, the policy interest rate mlf-lpr chain interest rate reduction means that monetary policy and liquidity environment are loosely supported, and the growth main line with high valuation flexibility is expected to benefit more. In addition, the growth sector has gradually stabilized after recent adjustment, and the cost performance has increased, The third stage valuation of growth style is also expected to fully interpret under the restless market in spring.
Among them, focuses on three subdivided directions: ① green power, photovoltaic, energy storage, wind power, nuclear power, hydrogen energy, new energy and new energy vehicle chain related to “double carbon”; ② The middle and upper reaches of semiconductors and national defense industry in the boom direction; ③ Dilemma reversal superposition growth diffusion, such as computers .
Second, with the intensive implementation of policies, the allocation opportunities for the main line of steady growth have become prominent. Focus on two subdivision directions, ① power for infrastructure construction, such as power grid construction, power grid operation, transmission and distribution, UHV, etc; ② The traditional direction of capital construction, such as building materials, steel, etc. .
Third, the LPR reduction will have a catalytic effect on the financial market in the short term and increase the attention, such as securities companies, real estate .
Fourth, focus on the consumer sector dominated by price rise, and mainly look for opportunities along the main line of price rise. The theme investment direction focuses on digital currency and state-owned enterprise reform .
