Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Hongta Securities Co.Ltd(601236) :2022 Baijiu cycle boom price increase to enhance the performance of ! high-end Baijiu is the first choice of bottom bin configuration .
In 2022, the boom of Baijiu cycle continued, and price rises helped to boost performance and seize structural opportunities. First, the preferred high-end: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) . The competitive pattern of high-end Baijiu is stable, and the demand is strong. The superposition of the expected price increases is the preferred target for the bottom storage.
Second, high elasticity secondary high end is preferred: Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) . Flying prices opened the price ceiling, the price of the high-end Baijiu moved upward, and the second high-end expansion momentum was strong. Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) are in national expansion, the endogenous potential energy of sales, management and channels are gradually strengthened, and the performance is more likely to exceed the market expectation.
Third, focus on the marginal improvement targets of Fundamentals: Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) , etc. Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) equity incentive was implemented, and the product upgrading was relatively smooth, from the introduction period to the mature and large-scale period; Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) implement the employee stock ownership plan, promote the high-end in an orderly manner, and there is a large space for the expansion of the core market; Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) benefiting from the price increase effect, the real estate stripping is imminent, and the marginal improvement can be expected. []
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : high-end Baijiu has strong barriers, and 2022 performance is still strong
The Baijiu Baijiu is still releasing good spirits recently. The current high-end liquor sector will continue to push hard. The high-end Baijiu will continue to usher in catalysis. The Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) will be recommended. We propose that the liquor business has strong barriers in the Baijiu sector and high-end Baijiu, and the business model has the superiority. The performance stability in 2022 is still strong.
At present, the market is expecting higher price increase and higher performance. We think that the high-end Baijiu has been shifting at present, and the following will be mainly based on stable operation, so as to improve the quality of its own business. In terms of the price increase, the core logic of the high-end sector is the price increase. We believe that the ability of high-end liquor companies to raise prices has been there all the time. But enterprises steadily increase their prices according to their own development rhythm, which is the way to long-term development. The excessive price increase in the short term or the overall operation quality of enterprises will be affected. Therefore, it is suggested to build high-end Baijiu with a long vision. It is a long-term promising high-quality core asset. High-end Baijiu will continue to push hard and steady Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . []
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) : Baijiu start a quick return, low inventory, achieve a good start, proposal to increase the three main line
Baijiu start a quick start, low inventory to achieve a good start, expect the follow-up peak season dynamic marketing performance shows regional differentiation, price differentiation, scene differentiation, the whole year is expected to high-end sound, high-end high-end growth, regional structure upgrade continues, head wine enterprise products, channel continuous changes under the alpha advantage highlights, valuation after digestion configuration value highlights. It is suggested to increase holdings in three main lines: 1) stick to high-end value: Maotai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ; 2) Growth targets: Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) ; 3) Regional three swordsmen Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , etc.
East Asia Qianhai Securities: Baijiu long-term demand stable structural market still exists
Baijiu long-term demand is stable, structural market still exists. Baijiu has a high consumption stickiness in consumer goods. Without the influence of external policies, Baijiu demand is still stable in the long run. At present, the overall Baijiu is in the stage of decreasing volume and increasing price, and the sector differentiation is obvious. The trend of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ‘s high-end Baijiu will not change. The high-end Baijiu will drive the growth of the price with the increase of price.
The Baijiu Baijiu, such as Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , can enjoy the growth of volume and price in the blank price belt after the price rise of high-end liquor. According to the recent performance forecast, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) expects revenue in 2021 to grow 23% – 27% compared with the same period. The Jinsha Baijiu company said at the national distributor conference that its revenue in 2021 increased by about 122% compared to the previous year, and the revenue of the second high-end liquor enterprises was steady growth. In 2021, the Baijiu price rise and the current low inventory of the dual factors, it is recommended that Baijiu spring sales. []
Huachang Securities: Baijiu sector valuation down ! made a good start and strongly supported sector to layout
Baijiu sector valuation fell back, a strong start to support, and then the layout of the sector. In the short term, although the epidemic situation is repeated, the impact tends to be passivated, there is still high certainty for wine enterprises to make a good start, and the performance will still be supported. The recent decline in sector valuation has reached a good opportunity for layout.
In terms of specific targets: the core is maowu Lufen, the first-line target. Maotai is the first. The recommended potential energy is strong, Fenjiu and Laojiao. The annual dimension Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) value space has been obvious. Maotai has strong certainty of income acceleration, and market-oriented reform is expected to continue, with prominent long-term value. Fenjiu Xinshuai is expected to continue the reform direction, focus on the key points of brand improvement, and the high growth is still sustainable. The morale inside and outside the old cellar is booming, and the national cellar brand is likely to drive high growth. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) thousand yuan high-end brand barrier escorts the growth certainty, pays attention to the stock price catalyst brought by the promotion of equity incentive, and continues to recommend the current value layout range.
Pay attention to the acceleration opportunities brought by the reform theme, and focus on Yanghe. Yanghe reform dividend release, strong sales morale, driven by dream 6 + high growth, performance has the potential to accelerate. Gujing and Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) product structure continued to upgrade, and continued to pay attention to the opportunities for accelerated growth brought by the implementation of reform expectations.
The elasticity of expanding liquor enterprises is still sufficient, and there are phased opportunities at present. For the expansion of liquor enterprises, drunkards and shede, we expect that the high elastic growth will continue in the first half of this year, and the decline of short-term valuation will bring phased opportunities, but we expect both high opportunities and risks.
Wanlian Securities: approaching the Spring Festival ! high-end, secondary high-end Baijiu consumption heat continued
Near the Spring Festival, high-end and high-end Baijiu consumption heat continues. Moutai 1935 is on the market and is committed to building another 1000 Baijiu high-end liquor. Wuliang Luzhou flavor lunar new year wine sold out in the first round of pre-sale, setting a new marketing record for Lunar New Year wine; The product quota of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) in the first quarter of 2022 has been implemented, and the receipt of orders for Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) version 60 and version 80 series products is suspended.
In the long run, the trend of Baijiu consumption upgrading is unchanged. The upward trend of the sector has a solid demand base. Even if the subsequent consumption tax is officially implemented, the impact on high-end liquor enterprises with high gross profit is limited, and it is still an excellent target of value investment in the long run. Suggestions: Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu (Baijiu): Liquor: high end liquor has strong profitability, and the second high-end liquor continues to grow. It is optimistic about the investment opportunities of high-end and secondary high-end liquor sectors. “1. 2) Beer: under the background of consumption upgrading, the high-end beer has been accelerated, and the fine brewing has ushered in a wind mouth of 100 billion. The long-term good trend of the sector remains unchanged. 3) Condiment: the cost is expected to decline at a high level, the industry can recover gradually, and the peak season of the Spring Festival is coming. It is suggested to pay attention to the dynamic sales. 4) Dairy products: the industry integration is accelerating, the profitability will be improved in the future, and the sector is expected to usher in a performance period. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading segments of the sector. []
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : fearless short-term fluctuations ! firmly optimistic about the first quarter of Baijiu start a good market
Fearless of short-term fluctuations, we are firmly optimistic about the good start of 22q1. Baijiu is basically good for certainty. The winery opened early and made a good start + the goal of some wine enterprises is higher than that in previous years + the inventory of dealers is generally low + the wholesale price is stable and positive under the tide of price increase + channel confidence, actively laying the foundation for a good start in 2022, and it is recommended to add on bargain hunting. The current position is Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) . Pay attention to the possibility that the performance of Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) is better than expected; In terms of beer, the trend of high-end upgrading continues. It is recommended to pay attention to the leading enterprises with high-end industry and strong price increase ability and cost control ability, such as Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , China Resources beer, etc. []
Guosheng Securities: the Spring Festival dynamic sales season is coming well received payment from famous wine enterprises
The Spring Festival peak season for mobile sales is coming. Famous liquor enterprises have received good returns. The peak season for price is stable without obvious fluctuations. Some areas at the mobile sales end are still repeatedly affected by the epidemic. After the epidemic, terminal stores generally adopt the method of reducing inventory and increasing purchase frequency. The real needs of consumers and terminal mobile sales still need to be observed. After new year’s day, the delivery of goods at the terminal is accelerated, The channel inventory of most famous liquor enterprises is benign, and it is expected that the Spring Festival is still expected to achieve benign growth.
Investment recommendations, Baijiu, the Spring Festival peak wine enterprises dynamic marketing benign, the current sector valuation regression value allocation interval, the first real estate wine sector, Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and other real estate wine company performance is expected to accelerate upward, high-end liquor consumer group continued expansion, time for space, optimistic about Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Medium and long term development of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) . In terms of popular products, although the short-term sales volume is repeatedly affected by the epidemic, the price increase is conducted smoothly, and the performance is expected to improve quarter by quarter. The core recommendations are Qingdao Richen Food Co.Ltd(603755) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) , Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) . []
