Today (January 21), Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low and went low. The stock index continued to adjust, and the weak pattern was at a glance. On the disk, in the industry, coal, tourism hotels, airports, wine making, energy metals and other industries led the increase, while medical devices, games, traditional Chinese medicine and other industries led the decline. In terms of theme stocks, the concept of tax exemption, online tourism and lithium extraction from salt lakes rose slightly; The concepts of covid-19 detection, in vitro diagnosis, covid-19 drugs, Helicobacter pylori and virus prevention and control fell across the board.
the coal sector made efforts to raise Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) the daily limit company’s maximum net profit in 2021 is expected to increase by 5 times
The coal sector rose intraday on the 21st. As of press time, Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) rose by the limit, Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Anyuan Coal Industry Group Co.Ltd(600397) , Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) and so on.
According to the announcement on Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) 20, according to the preliminary calculation by the financial department, the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 to be 4.5 billion yuan, an increase of 3.673 billion yuan to 4.173 billion yuan compared with the same period of the previous year (after retroactive adjustment), an increase of 444.14% to 504.59% year-on-year (after retroactive adjustment).
Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) said that due to the continuous improvement of the prosperity of the coal industry and the continuous rise of coal market prices, the profitability of the company has increased significantly. In addition, the company comprehensively implemented lean management, scientifically controlled costs, moderately released advanced production capacity, ensured energy supply, and greatly optimized asset quality.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) said that the rise in coal prices in the fourth quarter combined with the significant increase in the company’s performance, raised EPS from 2021 to 2023 to 2.45, 2.17 and 2.34 (formerly 1.02, 1.17 and 1.26), referred to the industry average, gave the company 7 times PE in 2022, raised the target price to 15.19 (formerly 12.24), and maintained the overweight rating.
For the coal industry, the agency said that at the beginning of 2022, affected by the limited import of Indonesian coal and the replenishment of power plants in the north near the Winter Olympics, the coal price rose. Although the supply and demand is still loose, the dark time of the coal market has passed.
steady growth continued to strengthen and the real estate sector rose Macrolink Culturaltainment Development Co.Ltd(000620) and other daily limits
The real estate sector rose in intraday shock on the 21st. As of press time, Beijing Airport High-Tech Park Co.Ltd(600463) , Macrolink Culturaltainment Development Co.Ltd(000620) , Casin Real Estate Development Group Co.Ltd(000838) , Dongguan Winnerway Industry Zone Ltd(000573) and Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) had outstanding performance. In terms of news, on January 20, the National Conference on housing and urban rural construction was held in Beijing to summarize the work in 2021, analyze the situation and problems, and study and deploy the work in 2022.
The meeting called for strengthening the regulation of the real estate market in 2022. Unswervingly adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living rather than speculation, do not use real estate as a tool and means to stimulate the economy in the short term, maintain the continuity and stability of regulatory policies, enhance the coordination and accuracy of regulatory policies, continue to steadily implement the long-term mechanism of real estate, and resolutely and effectively deal with the risk of overdue delivery of real estate projects of individual real estate enterprises, We will continue to rectify and standardize the order of the real estate market.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that since the second half of 2021, the real estate boom has decreased significantly. In December, the average growth rate of real estate investment in the current month fell to a low of – 3.0%. In the same period, infrastructure investment also continued to be depressed, and the average growth rate in the second half of the year was only about 0.6%. The two are important reasons for the obvious increase of economic downward pressure. In the face of “triple pressure”, real estate infrastructure development is a necessary option to achieve the hard requirement of stable growth. With the recent implementation of interest rate cuts, the work meetings of various ministries and commissions and the two sessions held in various regions, real estate and infrastructure are expected to accelerate. It is suggested to pay close attention to the investment opportunities in the steady growth chain such as real estate and infrastructure.
In addition, on January 20, the people’s Bank of China authorized the national interbank lending center to announce that on January 20, 2022, the quoted interest rate (LPR) of the loan market was: 1-year LPR was 3.7%, down 10bp from the previous month, and more than 5-year LPR was 4.6%, down 5bp from the previous month.
In this regard, Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) said that the reduction was in line with market expectations. The 5-year LPR reduction linked to housing loan interest rate was the first reduction in 22 months, boosting the confidence of the real estate market. On the one hand, the LPR reduction can reduce the financing cost of real estate enterprise development loans and residential mortgage loans, but more importantly, it reflects the regulator’s determination to promote steady growth and releases a positive signal that subsequent policies may continue to increase. In 2021, the real estate is basically high in front and low in the back. On the whole, the decline is obvious. Especially from the monthly data in December, the sales of commercial housing, real estate development investment and new construction area decreased by 18%, 14% and 31% respectively year-on-year. Due to the huge volume of the real estate industry and its close relationship with upstream and downstream industries, the return to normality of sales, land purchase and financing is of great significance to steady economic growth. Driven by the steady growth policy, the industry fundamentals are expected to reach the bottom and stabilize.
liquor Plate Strengthened head Baijiu development positive valuation digestion highlights the value of configuration
In January 21st, Baijiu sector strengthened, Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) trading, Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) and Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) again led, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) follow up. In terms of news, on January 18, Maotai 1935, which has attracted much attention, officially held a listing press conference. The company official announced that the market guidance price of Maotai 1935 is 1188 yuan per bottle. This price indicates that Maotai Maotai Maotai series liquor camp has born the first 1000 yuan main high-end product.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) pointed out that the head liquor enterprises developed actively, and the valuation digestion highlighted the allocation value. In 2022, the internal change of liquor enterprises had strong determinations (such as Moutai’s price marketization, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) management optimization, and the increase of old cellars plus the optimization of price plus cost). After the adjustment of Baijiu sector, the value of digestion was obvious. The price of Baijiu sector was further highlighted by the interest rate cut brought by liquidity.
Wan Lian Securities said that the consumption of high-end and Baijiu liquor continued to heat up near the Spring Festival. In the long run, the trend of Baijiu consumption upgrading is unchanged. The upward trend of the sector has a solid demand base. Even if the subsequent consumption tax is officially implemented, the impact on high-end liquor enterprises with high gross profit is limited, and it is still an excellent target of value investment in the long run. The Baijiu Baijiu has strong profitability and high growth of sub high end liquor, and it is optimistic about investment opportunities of high-end and secondary high-end baijiu.
the “14th five year plan” for tourism development is released. By 2025, great progress has been made in the construction of a tourism power (with shares)
The State Council recently issued the “14th five year plan” for tourism development, drawing up a blueprint for the development of tourism in the next five years in terms of development objectives, key tasks and security system.
The plan proposes that by 2025, the development level of tourism will continue to improve, the modern tourism system will be more perfect, the effective supply, high-quality supply and flexible supply of tourism will be more abundant, and the consumption demand of mass tourism will be better met. China’s tourism is booming, inbound and outbound tourism is advancing in an orderly manner, the international influence and competitiveness of tourism are significantly enhanced, and significant progress has been made in the construction of a tourism power.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that the 14th five year plan of tourism proposed to choose the opportunity to promote inbound and outbound tourism, which echoed the key recovery of the international market from 2023 to 2025 in the 14th five year plan of civil aviation, and the industrial policy level has been ready for liberalization. It is true that the decision-makers need to weigh the pros and cons of liberalization, and the short-term clearing policy will continue. However, when they choose to liberalize one day, they believe that the loosening of China’s epidemic prevention policy and the full and effective opening of the country are carried out simultaneously with a high probability. After the emergence of vaccines and specific drugs at the same time, it is only a matter of time for mankind to overcome the epidemic. When a strong boom is expected, the share price of aviation stocks is likely to remain active. It is undeniable that the short-term prosperity of civil aviation may still be disturbed by the sporadic epidemic, but the prosperity of the industry is highly expected after the epidemic subsides completely. The boom brought by the supply and demand reversal is industrial, and large and small airlines will benefit fully. From the perspective of valuation, Pb valuation of airlines is near the historical center, and there is still room for improvement. It is recommended to Air China Limited(601111) , China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) .
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that throughout 2022, the trend of weakening the impact of the epidemic is clear, and the main line of investment in epidemic repair is expected to run through the whole year. Maintain the recommended order of the sector: Hotel > duty free > OTA > scenic spot > catering > gambling. Maintain individual stock recommendations: Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Huazhu group, Ctrip, Tongcheng travel, Helens, Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , jiumaojiu, Naixue’s tea, China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) .
lithium carbonate prices continue to rise, and institutions say lithium prices are expected to remain high (with shares)
According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise this week. On January 20, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 332600 yuan / ton, which was 5.72% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 314600 yuan / ton on January 16). On January 20, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 360000 yuan / ton, which was 7.14% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 336000 yuan / ton on January 16).
As of January 20, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market is about 300000 ~ 360000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market is about 340000 ~ 400000 yuan / ton. Business society believes that at present, the logistics market may gradually start to stagnate, and the upstream shipment volume may gradually decrease. Most manufacturers mainly deal with long-term cooperative customers. There are competitive sales among traders, and it is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price will continue to operate at a high level.
Galaxy Securities pointed out that the new energy vehicle industry chain is booming, the demand for ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate and other downstream products is strong, the downstream manufacturers are active in asking for orders, and the manufacturers will stock up for the Spring Festival at the end of the year, and enlarge the demand for lithium salt in the short term. On the supply side, there is a continuous shortage of lithium concentrate in Australia. After China’s salt lake lithium extraction entered the winter, the output declined. The shutdown and maintenance of large lithium salt plants in Jiangxi, Sichuan and other places at the end of the year will also aggravate the tight supply of lithium salt in China. In December, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate in China increased from 207900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 282400 yuan / ton at the end of the month.
The agency believes that the effective supply increment of global lithium resources is still small in 2022. Driven by the significant release of new energy vehicles and cathode materials, the shortage pattern of lithium resources will continue. It is expected that the supply gap of the lithium industry will expand to 47000 tons of LCE in 2022, and the lithium price is expected to remain high, With the intermittent disturbance of supply and the seasonal expansion of consumption, there is a possibility of further explosive rise. It is suggested to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) .
the industrialized application of biological breeding has been steadily and orderly promoted, and attention has been paid to transgenic character companies with mature industrialization conditions
On January 20, Zeng Yande, chief agronomist of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas and director of the development planning department, said at the press conference that four departmental regulations, including the measures for the examination and approval of major crop varieties, are being revised to clarify the relevant provisions on the industrialized application of genetically modified crops. Together with relevant departments, we will continue to steadily and orderly promote the industrialized application of transgenic and other biological breeding and promote the high-quality development of the seed industry based on the principles of respecting science, strict supervision, abiding by laws and regulations and ensuring safety.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas issued the national agricultural and rural science and technology development plan during the 14th five year plan, which made it clear that major breakthroughs in biological breeding should be achieved during the 14th Five Year Plan period, emphasized the role of leading seed enterprises and the integration of Science and enterprises, and paid attention to the transformation of scientific and technological achievements. The plan has a strong commitment to the action plan for the revitalization of seed industry and is a comprehensive deployment for the revitalization of seed industry at the level of scientific and technological innovation. The policy conditions, industrial conditions and public opinion conditions of biological breeding industrialization are becoming more and more mature, and the industrialization is about to be implemented. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to high-quality leading seed enterprises with advantages in variety and R & D innovation and transgenic companies with mature industrialization conditions, with emphasis on Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) .
