Today, many wechat investment groups are silent. I don’t know if they are confused!
on January 21, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes continued to fluctuate and decline, and the volume could be reduced to less than trillion. The turnover in the market was 987 billion yuan, up from 1.13 trillion yuan last day. It can be seen that the popularity has gradually shrunk to the freezing point. If we insist on looking for the logic of the market decline, we can only say that this is the emotional shock caused by the return of structural valuation. The major sectors with large gains in the early stage took turns to sell, and the profit-making effect of the whole market was very poor. In addition, the continued decline of US stocks further affected sentiment and formed negative feedback.
In this market, some white horse companies have exposed performance mines. The Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) with a market value of nearly 50 billion issued the performance express of 2021 overnight, and the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 1.259 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.18%; The net profit of Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) 2021 with a market value of more than 100 billion also increased by only 14.56% year-on-year. These performance levels are significantly lower than market expectations. Today, the military industry sector suffered an impact, and many stocks hit the intraday limit. According to netizens, some funds angrily criticized some companies in the military industry teleconference: the buyer and the seller have made unremitting efforts for several years to turn the military industry into a white horse, which has been burned at present. Other investors said that due to the continued decline, individual military stocks were under great pressure.
Today, the market is not only the military industry sector. The covid-19 detection sector fell by nearly 6%, Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Guizhou Xinbang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002390) and other limits. The recent performance of this sector is very eye-catching, especially Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) , with an increase of more than ten times in just a few dozen trading days. According to the heavy article released by the lancet, the covid-19 global pandemic will end, and the key node is the end of March. This may be an important reason for the decline of relevant sectors.
the performance of military industry unit is lower than expected
The market in January every year will go in disorder because of the performance express. Although it was relatively strong last year, it was basically a head market, and individual stocks were also very miserable. This year’s trend has hit popularity even more than last year. Investors may attribute it to the trend of US stocks, which is actually part of the reason. Because the track stocks of US stocks are indeed very weak, the track stocks of A-Shares do not have much momentum to do more. However, the decline of some stocks has attracted a lot of controversy, such as military industry.
This sector was previously considered by many institutions as one of the most promising sectors this year. However, the recent trend makes people dare not start.
Last night, there was another unpleasant message from this sector:
Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) released the performance express of 2021. The company’s total operating revenue was 14.986 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.59%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.259 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.18%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 1.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.61%. The basic earnings per share is 0.32 yuan.
Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) also released the performance forecast of the annual report. The company expects the performance to increase in advance from January to December 2021. The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is 1.696 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.56%.
The performance of the above two companies was lower than the industry expectations. according to netizens, some funds angrily criticized some companies in the military industry teleconference. The buyer and the seller tried to turn the military industry into a white horse after several years of unremitting efforts, which is now set on fire. On January 21, Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) fell the limit for two consecutive days, Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) fell sharply. Subsequently, there was an influx of funds to prop up the share price, but as of the close, the above-mentioned stocks still fell significantly. Some investors said that due to the continued decline, individual military stocks were under great pressure.
New Year’s strongest track collapse
In addition to the military industry, the strongest track this year also collapsed. The covid-19 test index plunged nearly 6%, and the biggest increase in this sector after the beginning of the year was close to 25%.
So why did the track collapse? Analysts believe that there are three reasons:
first, last night, five Chinese companies were authorized to copy the oral drug covid-19 of MSD for free. This means that the scope of oral drug delivery will be expanded and the expectation of covid-19 infection will be reduced.
second, according to phoenix.com, the lancet magazine published heavy articles. several predictions are mentioned in the article:
1. Omicron is sweeping the world at an unprecedented speed, but most of them are asymptomatic infections;
2. Although the severity of the disease has decreased, the number of inpatients is still rising, and the health system will be tight in the next 4-6 weeks;
3. Various health policies, including increasing the wearing of masks and promoting the third needle, have played a very small role in slowing down the Omicron wave from the population level, and have peaked in many countries around the world and many states in the United States;
4. By March this year, more than half of the world’s people will be infected. Through virus exposure and vaccination, the global immunization will be at a high level;
5. Covid-19 virus will make a comeback in the future, but it is no longer a pandemic, and this infectious disease will be more controllable.
third, according to the WHO announcement on January 20, the Omicron epidemic is coming to an end in South Africa, where the mutant strain was first reported. According to the data of , the number of new cases per day decreased sharply in more and more places in South Africa. The proportion of cases with serious diseases is far lower than the peak of delta epidemic.
Whether A shares can be repaired
So, will A-Shares usher in repair? Analysts believe that the market may usher in repair opportunities next week.
first of all, an incentive for this round of decline is the peripheral market, especially the US stock market, which is mainly due to the increase of interest rates and the contraction of table expectations. but historically, during the interest rate hike in the United States, it does not mean that the market continues to fall. Moreover, judging from the yield of U.S. ten-year Treasury bonds, it has begun a sharp correction today. From the technical point of view, the NASDAQ index is already at the oversold level, and its RSI index is equivalent to the level when it plummeted in March 2020.
Secondly, the recent performance of Chinese assets is actually very strong. the Hong Kong stock market basically didn’t fall much. It even rose a lot yesterday. The largest increase of China concept stock was more than 6% last night. The data showed that the northbound funds accelerated to enter the market in the afternoon, and the net unilateral purchase of RMB 8.758 billion again throughout the day has been net purchase for 6 consecutive days; Among them, the net purchase of Shanghai Stock connect was 4.351 billion yuan and that of Shenzhen Stock connect was 4.407 billion yuan. This week, the cumulative net purchase of northbound funds reached 29.197 billion yuan, the best performance in a single week since December 10 last year.
Third, after the interest rate cut, the market is not without money, which can also be seen from the performance of government bonds. today, treasury bond futures rose significantly in the afternoon, with 10-year main contracts up 0.18%, 5-year main contracts up 0.19% and 2-year main contracts up 0.10%. Throughout the week, the 10-year main contract increased by 0.70%, the largest weekly increase since November 5, 2021, the 5-year main contract increased by 83%, the largest weekly increase since April 10, 2020, and the 2-year main contract increased by 0.39%, the largest weekly increase since April 10, 2020. At present, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has fallen to around 2.7%. According to the normal law, this level is very conducive to the expansion of equity valuation. From another point of view, the market will not run against the law for a long time.
