Today (January 21), Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock adjustment pattern as a whole. After the stock index opened low in the morning, there was a consistent shock and fell. There was a little sign of counterattack in the session, but the pattern of weakness throughout the day was not changed. Finally, the three major indexes closed down, of which the gem index and Shenzhen Component Index both fell by more than 1%.
In this regard, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that at present, due to the time node, the market is releasing selling pressure in an orderly manner, and many varieties show certain signs of oversold. In terms of operation, investors still focus on wait-and-see, focusing on the undervalued varieties with good texture but recently killed by mistake, and wait for the spontaneous stabilization of the market before subsequent layout.
At the same time, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that there will still be loose policies in the future, and the key still lies in the marginal change of credit data. In terms of the general trend of a shares, under the downward trend of the economy, the blue chip targets in the market may gradually usher in structural opportunities, while in a loose environment, the high-quality growth targets with relatively reasonable valuation still have configuration value, so it is recommended to continue to pay attention.
sector:
1, Baijiu
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) said Baijiu Baijiu is still a good release in the near future. Currently, the high-end liquor sector will continue to push hard. High-end Baijiu will continue to usher in catalysis, with emphasis on Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . We propose that the liquor business has strong barriers in the Baijiu sector and high-end Baijiu, and the business model has the superiority. The performance stability in 2022 is still strong.
In addition, Guosheng securities mentioned that the Spring Festival peak sales season is coming, the payment collection of famous wine enterprises is good, the peak season performance in terms of price is stable, and there is no obvious fluctuation. Some areas at the mobile sales end are still affected by the epidemic repeatedly. After the epidemic, terminal stores generally adopt the way of reducing inventory and increasing the frequency of purchase, and the real needs of consumers and terminal mobile sales still need to be observed, After new year’s day, the delivery of terminal goods is accelerated, and the channel inventory of most famous liquor enterprises is benign. It is expected that the Spring Festival is still expected to achieve benign growth.
Hongta Securities Co.Ltd(601236) pointed out that Baijiu cycle in 2022 continued to boom, price rises to boost performance, grasp structural opportunities. First, the preferred high-end: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) . The competitive pattern of high-end Baijiu is stable, and the demand is strong. The superposition of the expected price increases is the preferred target for the bottom storage.
Second, high elasticity secondary high end is preferred: Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) . Flying prices opened the price ceiling, the price of the high-end Baijiu moved upward, and the second high-end expansion momentum was strong. Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) are in national expansion, the endogenous potential energy of sales, management and channels are gradually strengthened, and the performance is more likely to exceed the market expectation.
Third, focus on the marginal improvement targets of Fundamentals: Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) , etc. Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) equity incentive was implemented, and the product upgrading was relatively smooth, from the introduction period to the mature and large-scale period; Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) implement the employee stock ownership plan, promote the high-end in an orderly manner, and there is a large space for the expansion of the core market; Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) benefiting from the price increase effect, the real estate stripping is imminent, and the marginal improvement can be expected.
II. Lithium extraction from Salt Lake
Huaxin securities mentioned that the stock market at the end of the year pushed up the price of lithium salt and accelerated the upward trend. Lithium resources will still be in short supply in 2022, and enterprises mastering lithium resources will fully benefit. The lithium industry will usher in a dividend period of profit and market scale growth. Enterprises that master upstream resources and have sufficient capital and technology to expand production capacity will usher in a period of rapid development.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that recently, the market’s concern about the rapid rise of lithium price and “insufficient lithium supply” led to a significant adjustment in the lithium sector. We judge that the new global lithium supply in 2022 can meet the growth of downstream demand, and lithium will not become a hard constraint on the development of electric vehicle industry. Subject to the development cycle of mineral resources, we expect lithium to become one of the most sustainable links in the power battery industry chain. At the same time, it is expected that the catalyst and rising power of the sector will shift from “price rise” to “performance”, and the lithium sector will have strong valuation advantages and configuration value in 2022. We maintain the rating of “stronger than the big market” in the lithium industry, focus on recommending enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium mines and high degree of performance fulfillment, recommend Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) and Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , and suggest paying attention to Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) Shenzhen Hekeda Precision Cleaning Equipment Co.Ltd(002816) manufacturing.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) believes that as the demand for new energy industry continues to improve in 2022, the central probability of lithium price will remain high in 2022. When the market sees that the price of lithium salt continues to be strong and gradually expects the price formation, it will focus on the performance improvement brought by the enterprise’s expansion of its own alpha. This is also the logic that we have always mentioned that the long-term of lithium sector is “volume” rather than “price”. We are still firmly optimistic about the allocation value of lithium sector in 2022, and we suggest paying attention to the performance forecast period in 2022.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that at the end of the year, the gap between supply and demand was enlarged again, and the price of cobalt and lithium accelerated upward. (1) Lithium: some manufacturers shut down for maintenance at the end of the year, the output of lithium carbonate fell for nine consecutive weeks, and the gap between supply and demand is still widening. Since the beginning of the year, the lithium hydroxide inventory has continued to decline. In November, the retail of new energy vehicles and the production scheduling of cathode materials show that the demand side maintains a high boom and maintains a bullish view on lithium prices; (2) Nickel: the purchasing demand of nickel salt downstream factories is poor, and the increase of quotation further affects the purchasing enthusiasm. The market is mainly wait-and-see, and the upward space of nickel sulfate price is under pressure; (3) Cobalt: the precursor and four cobalt manufacturers may have some replenishment due to the adjustment of production plan. The rhythm of goods collection in the downstream years ago is gradually rising, and the superimposed head enterprises reduce output, and the cobalt price is expected to continue to rise.
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