On January 21, Zhang Kun, Wang Zonghe, Hou Hao, Li Xiaoxing and other top flow fund managers released the 2021 fourth quarter report of their funds. They have always favored Baijiu Baijiu, and its position change is regarded as the “vane” of liquor stocks.
According to the data, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) encountered Zhang Kun’s reduction in the fourth quarter of 2021, but obtained the increase of Wang Zonghe, Li Xiaoxing and Hou Hao.
After the 2021 surge, is Baijiu‘s investment belief still in existence?
Maotai chengpenghua pension industry first heavyweight stock
E fund blue chip selection managed by e fund Zhang Kun increased its position from 91.71% at the end of the third quarter of 2021 to 94.23% at the end of the fourth quarter. However, the former ten big heavy positions, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) and other Baijiu stocks have been reduced to varying degrees. Among them, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) position ratio decreased from 9.93% to 9.76%, from the first heavy position stock at the end of the third quarter of 2021 to the third heavy position stock; The proportion of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) positions decreased by 0.2 percentage points, from the second largest heavyweight stocks to the fourth heavyweight stocks
source: e fund blue chip selected four seasons
Penghua Wang and the Penghua pension industry, the top ten positions in the fourth quarter of 2021 accounted for five seats in Baijiu ( Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) ). Among them, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) position ratio increased by 1.3 percentage points compared with the third quarter of 2021, and increased from the second largest heavy position stock to the first largest heavy position stock; The proportion of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) positions decreased by 3.98 percentage points, ranking seventh.
Yinhua market select fund managed by Li Xiaoxing entered the top ten heavy positions in Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) in the fourth quarter of 2021 and became the largest heavy position stock, with a position ratio of 8.75%; The holding proportion of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) increased by 3.48 percentage points to 8.17%, which increased from the fourth heavyweight stock in the third quarter of 2021 to the second heavyweight stock. In addition, in the fourth quarter of 2021, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) newly entered Yinhua market were among the top ten heavyweight stocks.
Hou Hao managed the fund’s investment in the CSI Baijiu fund. As at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, the equity assets accounted for over 90% of the total assets of the fund, and the top ten heavy positions were Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) and Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) . From the top ten positions of share a, Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) entered the top ten heavyweight stocks in the fourth quarter of 2021. The positions of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) in the fourth quarter also increased, while the positions of the other four stocks decreased.
“consumption provides certainty and stability”
Baijiu stock holdings have been adjusted, but the overall stability has been maintained. Fund managers also expressed optimism.
Hou Hao pointed out that the social zero data in 2021 has been repaired, in which the consumption of food and beverage, especially tobacco and alcohol, has increased. In the fourth quarter, Baijiu stocks rose, and some of the high-end stocks performed better, but structural differentiation also occurred. The market’s response to price system and some disturbing factors was different, causing some time fluctuations to increase.
Wang Zonghe said that in 2021, profound changes have taken place in the development prospects of relevant industries, which poses great challenges to the investment style of in-depth research, long-term shareholding and low turnover rate. This makes the consumer industry, which has not undergone special changes in fundamentals, also be expected to be affected. However, in the long-term chain of equity investment in the A-share market and even all over the world, value investment is still the most effective and executable investment method verified for a long time, and it is an investment idea that can create value for holders.
Li Xiaoxing said bluntly, “what consumption provides us is certainty and stability.” He analyzed and pointed out that 2021 is undoubtedly a year with great changes in external factors for consumption. Factors such as the disturbance of the epidemic, the restriction of production and power, and the sharp rise of raw material costs have led to a quarterly slowdown in performance and continued pressure on valuation. However, every bad external environment in history will not only strengthen the competitiveness of high-quality companies, but also be more conducive to the optimization of the pattern.
2022 optimistic about high-end Baijiu
Looking to the future, Zhang Kun said that China’s economy and enterprises themselves contain considerable potential. At present, the downward pressure is only phased, and he remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of China’s economy. After the valuation digestion in 2021, some high-quality enterprise valuations have been attractive. In the dimension of 3-5 years, the performance growth rate of the enterprise will be projected into the growth of its market value. There will be a number of high-quality companies that can create value for customers, improve the efficiency and productivity of the whole society, and have the ability to continuously create free cash flow for shareholders.
Li Xiaoxing said that from the perspective of revenue and profit, the performance of consumer goods companies in 2022 will return to normal operation, and there is also room for valuation switching. In 2022, the overall consumption investment will be more optimistic than 2021, and the high-end Baijiu and the national high-end potential will be optimistic. “Fourth quarter we add Baijiu liquor configuration, because seeing the positive factors continue to accumulate, strengthened the long-term performance certainty.”
Hou Hao pointed out that from the perspective of channel tracking, the wholesale price of high-end liquor remained stable, the rhythm of payment collection during the Spring Festival was good, the fundamentals were still relatively positive, and the structural growth of famous and high-quality liquor enterprises was highly uncertain. At present, the liquor sector valuation has dropped to a reasonable allocation interval, economic growth is expected to consume strong toughness, Baijiu Baijiu still has better allocation value.
