A number of paper enterprises have sent price increase letters, and the price increase cycle covers March.
On January 18 and 19, Jinguang paper, Chenming Group, Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) and Galaxy paper successively issued price increase notices. Jinguang paper said that from February 1, the price of all products of jinhuasheng paper increased by 200 yuan / ton; Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) said that since February 1, the price of all uncoated paper products has increased by 200 yuan / ton, and since March 1, on the above basis, the price of uncoated products will continue to increase by no less than 200 yuan / ton; Chenming Group said that since February 1, the price of white cardboard products has increased by 200 yuan / ton
The price increase letter is less than two months away from the last time the head paper enterprise issued the price increase letter notice.
On December 26 and 27, 2021, Jinguang paper issued three price increase letters, announcing that the prices of some paper products will be increased from January 1, 2022. Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) , Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) followed closely, and successively issued price increase notices, announcing that the price of paper increased by 200 / ton, mainly involving coated paper, white cardboard and other products.
Tang Binghua, a researcher of soft commodity futures, told surging news reporters that the pulp price has rebounded from the bottom in November 2021. Since January this year, the pulp price has been maintained at more than 6000 yuan / ton, up to 6500 yuan / ton. The price of pulp raw materials continues to rise. At present, it is basically in the high position of historical median. The profits of paper enterprises are squeezed, forcing them to raise prices to avoid risks.
The data show that in terms of the cost proportion of paper enterprises, the pulp price accounts for more than 70% of the cost, and its abnormal fluctuation may be directly transmitted to paper enterprises.
Founder medium-term futures research report said that from the historical trend, pulp varieties are not strong cyclical commodities, and their sharp price fluctuations are mostly short-term behavior. The rise duration is short, and the stay time at the high level is also short. On the whole, in 2022, the supply and demand of the pulp market is relatively loose, and the annual average price may move down to 5200 yuan / ton.
Zhao Wei, chairman of China Paper Association, said that at present, China's per capita paper consumption is only about half that of developed countries. According to the "14th five year plan" of the paper industry, it is estimated that by 2025 and 2035, China's per capita annual consumption of paper and paperboard will reach 100 kg and 120 kg, the total output will reach 140 million tons and 170 million tons, and the demand for raw materials will further increase.
According to relevant market news, China's finished paper production capacity will continue to increase in 2021. In the first half of the year, the production capacity is about 1.51 million tons, the highest level in the same period in history. More than 7 million tons of projects have been announced to be put into operation in 2022 and beyond.
According to China Central Television, a paper store in Beijing has received a price increase letter issued by the upstream supply paper factory for three consecutive months since the end of September 2021, raising the price by 200-300 yuan / ton each time, with a cumulative increase of 600-900 yuan per ton in the past three months.
Tang Binghua said that in comparison, the current price increase of paper enterprises from 100 yuan / ton to 200 yuan / ton is still within a reasonable range. Combined with the fundamentals, the growth rate of finished paper production capacity is lower than the demand, and there is a strong possibility for paper enterprises to raise prices in the first quarter of 2022. In the future, cultural paper will be affected by the "double reduction" policy from the second half of 2021, and the price may be under pressure with demand.
