key investment points
core concern: the unit price of e-commerce express fell slightly month on month as scheduled, and some of the increment of price increase in peak season remained. The unit price of Yiwu ticket in key grain producing areas maintained a positive growth year-on-year. In terms of industry, the unit price of single monthly ticket in December 2021 was 8.95 yuan, with a month on month comparison of -0.53 yuan and a year-on-year comparison of -1.06 yuan. The low monthly income data in December is due to the standardized income caliber of individual brand enterprises and the adjustment of annual data. After excluding the above factors, the unit price of industry ticket in December was 9.70 yuan, a month on month increase of + 0.21 yuan, a year-on-year increase of -0.31 yuan. Among them, for the price wind vane of key grain producing areas, the unit price of express business ticket above the designated standard in Yiwu (Jinhua) in December 2021 was 3.09 yuan, a month on month ratio of -0.22 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.24 yuan, and maintained a positive year-on-year growth in recent three months.
From the perspective of the company, the unit price of e-commerce express fell slightly month on month as scheduled, but some increment of price rise in peak season is still retained. In December 2021, the unit price of SF ticket was 16.43 yuan, a month on month increase of + 3.86%; The unit price of Yunda ticket was 2.35 yuan, a month on month increase of – 1.26%; The unit price of round pass ticket is 2.50 yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 3.47%; The unit price of Shentong ticket was 2.44 yuan, a month on month increase of -0.81%.
From the perspective of industry and company, the introduction of regulatory policies promotes the return of prices to a benign trend. It is suggested to pay attention to the price trend after the Spring Festival.
industry: the annual single volume increased by 30% year-on-year, and it is expected to maintain a relatively high growth. Single volume: single monthly single volume increased by 10.75% year-on-year, and annual single volume increased by 29.92% year-on-year. In December 2021, the number of express orders in the industry was 10.248 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.75%. In the first 12 months, the single volume of the industry was 108.296 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.92%. According to the express development index report of the State Post Office in December, the express business volume is expected to start smoothly in January 2022. E-commerce online shopping is still driving, with the superposition of express sinking (regional sinking and unit value sinking) and steady progress of express going to sea. We believe that the number of express orders in the industry is still expected to maintain a year-on-year growth of more than 20% in the next two years.
Revenue: the express revenue in December was 91.760 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.93%. In December 2021, the monthly express revenue of the industry was 91.760 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.93%. From January to December 2021, the total revenue of express delivery in the industry was 1033.230 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 17.47%.
Target of a shares: the volume and price of the leading stock are still good and enter the essential period of profit restoration. Single volume: from the market share in December, Yunda > Yuantong > Shentong > Shunfeng. In December 2021, SF’s single quantity was 938 million, with a year-on-year market share of -0.21pts to 9.15%; Yunda has a single volume of 1.836 billion pieces, with a year-on-year market share of + 1.26pts to 17.92%; The number of Yuantong orders was 1.582 billion, with a year-on-year market share of -0.67pts to 15.44%; The number of Shentong orders was 1.153 billion, with a year-on-year market share of + 0.83pts to 11.25%.
Pattern: observed by Cr4 index, the share is still concentrated to the leader. According to the express service brand concentration index CR8 released by the State Post Office, the cumulative CR8 in December 2021 was 80.5%, down 0.2pts from the previous month, down 1.7pts from the same period of last year and 2.0pts from the same period of 2019; However, in terms of the cumulative market share of Shunfeng, Yunda, Yuantong and Yunda, the cumulative Cr4 of A-share express in December 2021 was 52.2%, an increase of 0.2pts month on month and 2.8pts compared with the same period in 2019. The single volume still showed a trend of leading concentration.
Revenue: SF continues to lead A-share express companies. In December 2021, SF Express’s revenue increased by + 8.77% year-on-year to RMB 15.414 billion, with a two-year compound growth of 16.95%; Yunda Express’s revenue increased by + 24.74% year-on-year to RMB 4.316 billion, with a compound growth of 12.40% in two years; Yuantong Express revenue increased by 19.96% year-on-year to RMB 3.954 billion, with a compound growth of 19.03% in two years; Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) revenue increased by + 25.27% year-on-year to RMB 2.816 billion, with a 2-year compound growth of 6.49%.
Investment: the track pattern is gradually clear and optimistic about the leading development
Policy supervision is the source driving force for the recovery of the express boom, and the trend is gradually increasing. Following the formal legislation of the regulations of Zhejiang Province on the promotion of express industry in September 2021, the state post office began to solicit public opinions on the measures for the administration of express market (Revised Draft) on January 7, 2022. From the revised content of the measures, we interpret the key increment as one core, two dimensions and three key points: “one core” is to promote the national high-quality development of the express industry; “Two dimensions” lie in competition order and service quality; The “three key points” are to prohibit price competition below the cost line, rectify the phenomenon of collusive price manipulation and fictitious express information, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of express employees. The regulatory legislation will be upgraded to the national level, the multi-directional guarantee of profits will return to benign, and the repair of industry value is expected to exceed expectations.
Express value repair is divided into three levels and two stages, which is about to enter the essential level of profit repair. For the value restoration after the vicious price war, we believe that we should distinguish three levels: 1) policy control, 2) price return, and 3) profit restoration. In the second and third quarters of this year, with the introduction of the policy, the industry price has gradually returned to a benign trend. After the policy and price repair, it is about to enter the most essential level of value repair, that is, the level of profit repair, and the corresponding stock price performance may usher in the second wave of “main rising wave”. We expect Q4 and next year’s overall profit inflection point to rise. In 2022, the single piece profit repair superimposed scale will increase, and the leading performance will have high elasticity. Invest in different tracks and be optimistic about the leading development. In terms of access system, it is suggested to pay attention to the certainty of value and repair the Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) that is getting better and better, and the single volume and profit leading Zhongtong Express; In terms of direct marketing, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) of network extension and barrier upgrading under the broad layout of traditional + emerging business formats.
risk tips: loose policy control; Deterioration of express price war; The growth of physical online shopping fell.
