Industrial metals: at the end of the year, the stock reserve is coming to an end. It is optimistic about the historically low variety of copper in the stock position: higher inflation drives the center of gravity of copper prices to move upward. The downstream stock reserve is completed and the stock accumulation is opened. Within the week, the United States announced that the annual rate of CPI in December was not adjusted quarterly to 7%, the largest 12-month increase since 1982. The rise in CPI once again boosted the market's expectation that the Fed will start raising interest rates in March.
However, Powell's unexpected partial dove speech made the dollar fall rapidly, and commodities generally rose under the logic of strong inflation. In terms of fundamentals, the rising disk prices gradually highlighted the fear of high prices in the downstream. In addition, the downstream concentrated the Reserve last week, further making the consumption performance weak during the week. China's copper inventory finally showed a slight accumulation of reserves. Short term upward pressure on copper prices. In the medium term, the global copper inventory is still low, the market expectation of the impact of the new round of epidemic has been fully digested, and the inflation expectation has risen again, supporting the copper price.
Aluminum: energy supply restrictions on electrolytic aluminum supply outside China, electrolytic aluminum profits or continuous repair, overseas electrolytic aluminum supply is limited by energy, supporting aluminum prices to remain high. China's electrolytic aluminum profits are expected to be further repaired: the current production reduction policy is not clear, and the market is worried about production reduction. According to SMM, the electrolytic aluminum plant has a strong willingness to prepare the warehouse, which drives the rise of alumina price. Affected by the decline of electricity price of aluminum plant, the cost of electrolytic aluminum maintains a narrow consolidation. It is expected that the profit of electrolytic aluminum will further increase with the decline of alumina price in the future; In terms of inventory, according to SMM, less goods are delivered within a week, and 23000 tons are stored every week.
The recent increase in the proportion of molten aluminum consumption and the significant increase in cast rods have led to less arrival of aluminum ingots and a continuous increase in the arrival of aluminum rods.
Zinc: Double restrictions on energy and environmental protection. The profits of Chinese smelters integrating production, mining and metallurgy are good. Similar to aluminum, the risk of energy supply is still high, and the overseas zinc price remains high, expanding the profit loss of imported minerals. China's production is limited by the impact of environmental protection and the loss of imported minerals, so it takes the initiative to reduce production, so the market supply is limited. The previous expectation that the Winter Olympics will affect downstream consumption has been falsified by the continuous destocking of inventories in seven places. The market expects that the accumulation progress of inventories in the spring festival may be the lowest in recent years, and the zinc fundamentals continue to improve. It is optimistic that the infrastructure consumption side will return after the Spring Festival, and the fundamentals will be further improved, which will benefit the profits of mining and metallurgy enterprises.
Energy metals: the demand boom continues, and the cost supports the metal price. Lithium: strong demand superimposes the low inventory. It is optimistic that the lithium price will remain high. It is optimistic that the demand for metals from new energy terminals will be driven. At present, the downstream reaction orders will maintain growth, and the demand is expected to remain resilient in 2022. The short-term Spring Festival is approaching, the logistics will be shut down, and the transaction will be reduced, but the downstream inventory is still low, or support the lithium price to remain high.
Cobalt: the import expectation remains low, and the cost support metal price is easy to rise but difficult to fall. The overseas price continues to rise this week. The market expectation for import is not high, and the tension of cobalt raw materials may continue after the festival. The inventory of raw materials and finished products in the smelter is low, and the prices of metals and chemicals are easy to rise but difficult to fall under the support of cost.
Nickel: good fundamentals. The nickel price hit a new high in the opening market. The launch of high nickel models or further boosted the prosperity of the sector. This week, the nickel price remained strong, the arrival of pure nickel imports was less than expected, the nickel mine remained high due to the restrictions of the rainy season, the social ore raw materials and pure pinch Inventory were low, the downstream stainless steel and new energy plants actively prepared goods, and the industry fundamentals were good. It is expected that in 2022, with the continuous promotion of high-end models equipped with high nickel batteries, the stainless steel field will be boosted by real estate and infrastructure, and the high growth rate of demand will be maintained.
Precious metals: US inflation again exceeded expectations, hawkish stance at the interest rate hike meeting strengthened, precious metals' performance was significantly under pressure this week, and gold and silver ETF positions bottomed out. Although Powell showed high concern about US debt and labor participation rate in his speech, the pressure on the current inflation level is still. It is expected that the short-term precious metal prices will be suppressed by taper acceleration and the hawkish stance of raising interest rates. In the medium and long term, with the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy, the financial attributes of precious metals will be under pressure.
Rare earth: the supply gap is still favorable. The supply side of oxide magnetic material integration enterprises is successively affected by the closure of Customs in Myanmar and energy shortage. The supply of rare earth mines and oxides in China is insufficient. There is a strong demand for procurement and replenishment in the mainstream rare earth oxide Market, and most oxides have always been in spot shortage. Subsequently, with the gradual expansion of magnetic material enterprises, the upstream mainstream rare earth products can not match the magnetic material production capacity and terminal demand, and the supply and demand gap of rare earth mainstream products is large. The gap between supply and demand in the industrial chain is expected to continue until 2022, and oxide magnetic material integration enterprises are expected to continue to enjoy dividends.
Risk tips:
The resumption of electrolytic aluminum production exceeded expectations, and the demand for new energy fell sharply, which was lower than expected
