The stock indexes of Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets rose and fell at a high level in the overseas market, the central bank continued to release favorable interest rate cuts, a net inflow of RMB 12.6 billion from the north, the accelerated risk clearing through the "three highs" Mao stock limit, the inflow of funds against the trend of Finance and consumption to protect the market, and the impact and stimulation of the reappearance of "general decline + sharp decline + sharp decline" in most industry segment indexes, Give the cross star line of inertia decline or adjust the negative line, which is the second bottom or bottom grinding trend of the volatility. It does not break the recent low and gap to provide strong support, and maintain the strategy of holding trend chips to rise.
In terms of the Shanghai stock index, the slightly large-scale cross star line refused to break the strong support of the 250 day line, and made it clear that the double bottom of digesting the pressure of the moving average and neckline or the formation of the golden fork due to the MACD index, so it maintained a good range shock trend before the festival; Gem refers to the extremely negative shock line of rising and falling, which has not broken the strong support of the recent low. It is clear that if there is a sharp decline in the "empty trap", it should be a good time for the layout before the festival; Combined with the slightly large amount of cross star shock line collected by Shencheng index, the second bottom of Kechuang 50 index did not break the strong support of 1288.85. It is expected that there will be differentiation and turnaround after the extreme "general decline + sharp decline + sharp fall".
From the point of view of Pankou, a few sectors such as hotel catering, insurance, wine making, securities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, banking, household appliances, household goods, warehousing and logistics, coal, digital currency and water conservancy construction are in red disk operation, with large-scale net capital inflow, forming a good positive leading and driving force for the index. However, advertising packaging, aviation, general machinery, public transport, intellectual property rights, tire pressure monitoring, online Red economy, cloud games, rare earth permanent magnet, lithium ore, carbon fiber, air treatment, online games, medical waste treatment, energy saving, fluorine concept, mineral products and other sectors led the decline, with a large-scale net outflow of funds with an average volatility of more than 2%, Form a stronger negative impact and impact. Combined with the long short energy ratio, 57 stocks rose by more than 9%, 109 stocks rose by more than 5%, 183 stocks rose by more than 3%, 35 stocks fell by more than 9%, 633 stocks fell by more than 5%, and 2128 stocks fell by more than 3%. It is expected that the secondary market ignores the positive effect of the central bank's "continuous interest rate reduction" and deduces the operation structure of "policy bottom - market bottom" according to its own internal law, It is the demand for position adjustment and stock exchange of institutional capital initiative "high-low switching" and "survival of the fittest switching". With the "Scaling" of trading volume, it is expected to complete the phased bottom construction driven by the rise of "new economy + new growth" and other sectors.
In terms of news, the executive meeting of the State Council stressed that the local government's territorial responsibility and enterprise's main responsibility for ensuring energy supply should be compacted, and coal power enterprises should make full use of their resources to ensure oil and gas supply; Strictly implement the mayor responsibility system of "vegetable basket", and pay close attention to the production of vegetables, meat, eggs, milk and aquatic products; Make plans to deal with uncertain factors such as bad weather and sudden epidemic, ensure smooth backbone transportation network, and do a good job in the distribution of living materials; Strengthen quality and safety supervision, investigate and deal with illegal acts such as bid up prices according to law; Strengthen tax reduction and fee reduction. On the basis of the extension of some expired tax preferential policies in the early stage, 11 tax preferential policies for science and technology, employment and entrepreneurship, medical treatment and education will be implemented by the end of 2023; The qualified science and technology business incubators, University Science and technology parks and maker space incubation services shall be exempted from value-added tax, and the real estate and land for their own use and provided to the incubated objects shall be exempted from real estate tax and urban land use tax; Relax the recognition standards for start-up science and technology enterprises. If qualified venture capital enterprises and angel investors invest in them, the taxable income shall be deducted according to a certain proportion of the investment amount. The State Council Office stressed that large qualified commercial and logistics enterprises should be encouraged to "go global", strengthen the integrated allocation of resources, optimize the international marketing system and improve the global service network; Support the development of large multinational supply chain service enterprises, improve international competitiveness and enhance the toughness of industrial chain supply chain; Cultivate a number of high-quality trade enterprises with strong innovation ability and competitive strength in China's international market, and guide and drive more enterprises to take the road of integrated operation; According to the international advanced Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) planting and production standards, build a number of high-quality Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) planting and production bases, and cultivate a number of modern agricultural enterprises integrating planting, breeding and processing, production, supply and marketing, and domestic and foreign trade. SASAC stressed that we should solidly promote the reorganization, formation and professional integration of central enterprises, focus on the implementation of national strategies such as supply side structural reform, innovation driven development and building a manufacturing power, steadily promote the reorganization and integration of iron and steel and other fields in accordance with the principle of "one mature household and one promotion household", and timely study and establish a new central enterprise group in relevant fields; Actively promote the professional integration of grain reserve processing, ports and terminals, and effectively improve the efficiency of resource allocation and the core competitiveness of enterprises; Central power generation enterprises should increase investment in clean energy construction, increase the proportion of clean energy installed in central enterprises, increase the efficient and clean transformation of existing coal-fired power units, and improve the safety and environmental protection level of coal-fired power units; The reform of mixed ownership should adhere to the principle of "three reasons, three appropriates and three noes", promote it by classification and level by level in accordance with the requirements of improving governance, strengthening incentives, highlighting main businesses and improving efficiency, and resolutely prevent the loss of state-owned assets. The Ministry of industry and information technology stressed that through a series of policies such as reducing fees and taxes, specialized, special and new enterprises have developed rapidly and become the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry and an important new force in the industrial chain and supply chain; Further implement the "three products" strategy, promote the upgrading of information consumption, and strengthen the cultivation of industries such as intelligent Internet connected vehicles, smart health and elderly care, ice and snow equipment; Expand the consumption of new energy vehicles and encourage qualified places to carry out activities of green smart appliances and green building materials to the countryside; Consolidate the foundation of 5g industry, promote the industry to tackle key core technologies of 5g, participate in the formulation of 5g series international standards, and timely launch multi-level 5g chips, modules and other related products to meet the differentiated needs of industrial applications; Promote the development of 5g smart phones, wearable devices, virtual reality / augmented reality and other new consumer terminals, so as to enrich the carrier of 5g technology application; Carry out 5g network construction moderately ahead of schedule, deepen co construction and sharing, do a good job in the pilot application of "5g + medical health" and "5g + smart education", promote 5g technology enabled broadcasting, travel and other scenes, and help the smart Winter Olympics; Build an upgraded version of "5g + industrial Internet", explore a number of typical application scenarios such as production line level and workshop level, and promote the favorable policy combination of 5g full connection project construction, which is conducive to the attention and improvement of high-quality listed companies in the new economic field to obtain better funds and resources, and form a trend of higher premium throughout the year.
The author believes that the stability of the global IC supply chain is still facing severe challenges, and the chip supply will remain tight for a long time in the future. On the Chinese side, take multiple measures to ensure chip supply, maintain the stable operation of the automotive industry, encourage backbone enterprises outside China to increase investment as a whole, and promote the improvement of the supply capacity of the whole chip industry chain; We will coordinate development and security, focus on the goal of building a manufacturing power and a network power, do a good job in pre adjustment, fine adjustment and cross cycle adjustment, strive to improve the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, and build a strong economic "ballast", which proves that the industrial chain supply chain benefiting from the core is expected to form a medium-term development expectation under the combined action of heavy policies, And form the opportunity of premium rising trend. In combination with promoting the development of digital industry in key areas in Shanghai, we will improve the supply capacity of basic software, industrial software and security software, build a number of open service platforms such as big data and blockchain, accelerate the cultivation of a number of online new economy leading enterprises, build 30 manufacturing digital enabling platforms, build 40 demonstration intelligent factories, and further promote the pilot of digital transformation of education, Accelerate the construction of digital medical innovation center, realize the "three codes in one" of public transport, promote the iterative upgrading of "one network", and identify the semiconductors, components, lithography machines, MCU chips, new materials, data centers, industrial motherboards, 5g, artificial intelligence, Internet of things, quantum technology, aviation, metauniverse, communication equipment, new energy vehicles, it equipment UHV, industrial Internet and other sectors may follow the market for active technical adjustment, but in the medium-term trend, this "headwind" node should be a time window for investors to pick up cheap chips. (Note: the above information is only for reference and not for specific operation suggestions. There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious.)
Author: Zhang Cuixia, chief investment adviser of Jufeng investment
Attachment: daily analysis diagram of different indexes
(daily analysis diagram of Shanghai stock index 2022-1-20)
(daily analysis diagram of gem index 2022-1-20)
