"It is expected that the national carbon peak scheme and road map of the cement industry will be officially introduced in the near future, and this year will be the first year of carbon neutralization in the cement industry." The big data Research Institute of China cement network makes such a forecast for the cement industry in 2022.
Soaring coal prices and dual control of energy consumption... The overall performance of cement in 2021 is not optimistic. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the annual cement output in 2021 was 2.363 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%. The industry benefit has experienced a painful period, and it is difficult for enterprises to increase income and profits.
In 2022, the traditional off-season makes the dawn of the industry difficult to appear in the short term. "The short-term downward trend is in line with market expectations. Under the background of 'stabilizing the economy', infrastructure development is imminent, and the market is expected to recover gradually." In an interview with reporters, insiders said bluntly: "under the 'double carbon' goal, the main tone of energy conservation and consumption reduction and high-quality development of the industry will remain unchanged during the 14th Five Year Plan period."
M & a boom swept
"The policy requires that the proportion of benchmark production capacity will exceed 30% in 2025. In the future, the production capacity of 2500 tons / day and below in the industry is expected to withdraw one after another, and the total production capacity will shrink by more than 8.6% Talking about the change of the supply side of the cement industry in the future, Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) said in the research report. The transformation of carbon tax + emission reduction intensifies the cost pressure of small enterprises, highlights the leading competitive advantage, and is further expanding through mergers and acquisitions and equity participation.
In 2021, the business integration of China's building materials and cement sector was completed. The new Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) has a clinker production capacity of about 300 million tons, a commercial concrete production capacity of about 400 million cubic meters and an aggregate production capacity of about 150 million tons, becoming the new "first brother of cement".
Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) by issuing shares to Bbmg Corporation(601992) at a price of RMB 13.623 billion, it purchased 47.09% equity of Jinyu Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) held by it, absorbed and merged the joint venture, and raised supporting funds at the same time. On January 13, 2022, Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) issued the announcement of additional issuance and listing, and the new shares were listed on January 14. The five-year strategic restructuring of Jinyu Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) came to a successful end.
"This is the only asset restructuring with a scale of more than 10 billion that was announced and completed in 2021 in China's capital market." Bbmg Corporation(601992) the Work Department of the board of directors said. Through this transaction, the cement assets of both parties were integrated, and the business coverage of Bbmg Corporation(601992) in North China was significantly improved.
At the same time, the M & a boom spread in the cement industry. In 2021, Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) acquired Inner Mongolia Songta cement, Nanfang cement acquired Hangzhou Dama cement, Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) raised Jilin Yatai (Group) Co.Ltd(600881) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) acquired Xinjiang Bohai Cement, Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) acquired 51% equity of Hongfeng cement, China Resources Cement acquired 51% equity of Liangtian cement, Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) successively acquired the equity of Daixian Hongwei cement and China Resources Fulong cement
"Joint restructuring can be said to be a structural adjustment, which can not only solve the problem of horizontal competition, but also eliminate backward production capacity from the stock, which is of great significance to promote the sustainable development of the industry." The aforementioned industry insiders said: "last year, the speed of restructuring was significantly increased."
In the 2022 cement industry forecast, China cement network big data Research Institute pointed out that in addition to the acquisition within the industry, cement enterprises will also reach out to the downstream industrial chain integration such as commercial concrete. In 2022, the situation of industry merger and reorganization will rise again, and the cement enterprise will be strong.
carbon and consumption reduction
In 2021, the replacement of cement production capacity will be "stricter and tighter" again. In this context, backward production capacity in various regions has been withdrawn and accelerated, and the momentum of "beach grabbing" production capacity of leading enterprises has not decreased. According to the statistics of cement big data research institute, 21 cement clinker production lines were ignited in China in 2021, with a total clinker production capacity of about 31.992 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%. The newly put into production capacity is mainly concentrated in the south, and more than 60% is replacement projects.
The reporter noted that many top enterprises such as Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Jinyu cement, Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) , Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) in the replacement project have made gains. For example, on May 18, 2021, Tibet Sinoma Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) cement clinker production line with an annual output of 1.2 million tons was ignited and put into operation in Shannan City, Tibet; On May 22, 2021, Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) Hunan Yunfeng phase II 4500t / d cement clinker production line was successfully ignited at one time.
"With the implementation of the revised version of the replacement method, it is expected that the number of cement clinker replacement projects will be significantly reduced this year. The industrial energy consumption standard will be comprehensively upgraded, forcing enterprises to reduce energy consumption through technological upgrading, and the low-efficiency and high energy consumption capacity will withdraw from the market." China cement network big data research institute said.
The 14th five year plan for the development of raw material industry issued in December 2021 clearly states that the production capacity of key raw materials and bulk commodities such as cement will only be reduced but not increased. This means that the competition space of "horse racing enclosure" in the cement industry shrinks, and there is an urgent need to improve quality and efficiency.
"Cement is not a backward product, and traditional industries are not equal to backward industries. Only by realizing green transformation, making continuous efforts to 'reduce' and 'strengthen', can we remove the label of high energy consumption and high emission and better integrate into and serve economic and social development." Wang Cheng, party secretary and chairman of conch group, made it clear when talking about aiming at the "double carbon" goal and promoting enterprise transformation.
The reporter noted that cement enterprises are developing their strengths around "carbon reduction" and "consumption reduction". For example, focusing on the "double carbon" goal, conch group immediately formulated an action plan and road map, and developed and applied new energy-saving, environmental protection and low-carbon technologies, new processes, new materials and new equipment. In 2021, conch group successively cooperated with China University of science and technology, Zhejiang University, Dalian University of technology, Nankai University and other universities to establish a joint laboratory for carbon dioxide recycling, a joint laboratory for new materials and intelligent manufacturing, and a joint laboratory for methanol SCR denitration technology to actively develop clean energy utilization, fuel substitution, pollution and carbon reduction Carbon dioxide market application technology.
Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) released the industry's first white paper on low carbon development in August 2021. The white paper shows that since 2013, Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) has actively participated in carbon trading in carbon trading pilot provinces and cities such as Hubei Province, Guangdong Province and Chongqing, and all carbon quota compliance has been completed.
In the quantitative goal of low-carbon development, the company proposes to invest 10.5 billion yuan from 2020 to 2030 for technology research and development and production system transformation and upgrading to reduce carbon emissions. By 2030, the carbon dioxide emission per unit product output value of the company will be more than 70% lower than that in 2005, and the proportion of alternative fuel energy in primary energy consumption will reach more than 25%. In 2060, innovative technologies such as CCUs (carbon capture, utilization and storage) will help the company achieve the goal of net zero emission and neutralize the remaining carbon emission.
In 2021, Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) based on the successful experience of energy-saving transformation of high energy consuming fans in the previous two years, eight subsidiaries transformed high-temperature fans, raw meal circulating fans and other fans, with remarkable power saving effect.
At the same time, the company has carried out consumption reduction transformation on raw mill, cement kiln and cement mill, which has improved the utilization efficiency of fuel and heat recovery efficiency and achieved good results.
In addition, green factories, the development of photovoltaic industry and collaborative disposal of solid and hazardous wastes have also become important ways for leading enterprises to improve quality and efficiency. In terms of "collaborative disposal", many leading enterprises have been involved, and the projects under construction or preparation have been steadily promoted. In terms of green factories, Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) Huaxin Chibi company and Tibet Company were selected into the list of national green factories, and Huaxin Xinyang company and Zhuzhou company were selected into the list of energy efficiency leading enterprises in key energy consumption industries; Six of the cement production companies of Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) have been rated as national green factories.
In terms of photovoltaic industry, conch group takes advantage of the national distribution of its enterprises to quickly expand new energy industries such as photovoltaic, wind power generation and energy storage power stations, and build 19 photovoltaic power stations, 3 energy storage power stations and 1 wind power generation project. In 2021, photovoltaic power generation will be 163 million kWh and energy storage will be 24.64 million kwh. Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) more than 18000 photovoltaic panels of Meizhou Jinta Cement Co., Ltd. have been laid and are about to be put into operation. It is estimated that the average annual power generation can reach 11 million kwh.
annual availability of infrastructure development
"Carry out infrastructure investment in an appropriate and advanced manner, and continue to promote the construction of traditional infrastructure such as transportation, energy, water conservancy, agriculture, environmental protection and logistics." On January 18, at the first press conference of 2022 held by the national development and Reform Commission, Yuan Da, director of the comprehensive Department of national economy of the national development and Reform Commission, said.
On January 19, boosted by multiple news, the wind cement index rose 3.99%. Yunnan Bowin Technology Industry Co.Ltd(600883) , Zhejiang Jianfeng Group Co.Ltd(600668) limit, Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) and other leading enterprises increased.
"The restless market in the cement industry in spring is still worth looking forward to." Although it is still in the traditional off-season, looking forward to the future, insiders say frankly.
This coincides with the views of many institutions. For example, Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) believes that the accelerated issuance of special bonds in the second half of 2021 is expected to form infrastructure demand in the first half of 2022. Cement has a high probability of benefiting from infrastructure recovery and real estate easing, and is expected to usher in recovery in 2022. Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) said that it is expected that there will be a marginal improvement at the infrastructure end in the first quarter of 2022, and the market can be expected in spring.
The reporter noted that since this month, major projects in many places have started intensively. For example, on January 18, 199 major projects in Wuhan started in the first quarter, with a total investment of 327.73 billion yuan; On January 16, 62 key projects in Yantai were started, with a total investment of 48.7 billion yuan; On January 6, the first batch of 40 major projects of five new towns in Shanghai were started in the new year, with a total investment of 132.82 billion yuan; On January 5, 358 projects in Zhejiang Province were started, with a total investment of 638.6 billion yuan
In terms of infrastructure, transportation, water conservancy and other construction have been more favorable in the near future. On January 11, the "14th five year plan for water security" was printed and issued. Under the goal of steady growth, capital construction will be strengthened, and water conservancy construction will be accelerated soon. In terms of transportation, the multi provincial transportation work conference also showed positive signals: Jiangsu Province plans to ensure the completion of investment of 180.9 billion yuan in transportation infrastructure construction in 2022; Shandong Province will moderately advance the construction of transportation infrastructure, and plans to complete 270 billion yuan of fixed asset investment in transportation in 2022.
"It is estimated that the national cement output will be about 2.3 billion tons in 2022, a slight decrease of about 3% compared with 2021, and the clinker production capacity is generally stable." The big data Research Institute of China cement network predicts that the cement price center will move up as a whole in 2022, and the amplitude of the whole year will narrow, so there will be no sharp fluctuation in 2021; With the fall of coal prices and the restoration of profits in the cement industry, the total annual profit is expected to be 169.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%.
