Recently, PV tech released the ranking of top 10 global component suppliers in 2021. There is no doubt that Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (601012. SH) ranks first. However, the subsequent ranking competition is more interesting: Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) (688599. SH) rose to second place, Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (002459. SZ) third, and Jingke energy (688223. SH) fell to fourth from second place in the previous year.
The financial Associated Press reporter noted that the situation of constant strength of component strength will be further consolidated in 2021: on the one hand, the list of the top five shipping enterprises has not changed in the past three years, only the ranking adjustment; On the other hand, component shipments have been rising sharply. According to the agency's prediction, the first four companies all shipped more than 20GW last year, while in 2020, only Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) component shipments reached this level.
At present, it is a consensus that the demand for M6 and below will accelerate and shrink, and the proportion of large-size components is irresistible. Industry analysts told the financial associated press that high-power modules have become the main force of photovoltaic, and the module market may continue to shuffle under the agitation of silicon wafer size. In the replacement of large size, the competition pattern of head module manufacturers will change more this year.
210 component accelerated ranking re washing
According to PV tech data, the global Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic industry experienced the first important cycle dominated by capacity in 2021, producing more than 190gw modules.
In fact, if it were not for the impact of silicon material price rise almost throughout the year, the shipment volume of head enterprises might be higher. Take Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) as an example, the company previously set the shipment target of 25-30gw in 2021. However, due to rising prices and shrinking global market demand, the company's shipment target may be close to the lower limit. The company will ship as much as possible while ensuring the order profit.
In the past year, the determination of large-size modules has become the general trend of the photovoltaic industry. In fact, cost reduction and efficiency increase are the persistent development theme of the photovoltaic industry. Since 2018, after the update iteration of G1 (158.75mm), M4 (161.7mm) and M6 (166mm), the silicon wafer size has been gradually finalized into M10 (182mm) and G12 (210mm).
For the dispute over silicon wafer size standards, the most turbulent part is the component part. The two standards have their own supporters. The former includes the "M10" alliance established by seven photovoltaic upstream and downstream companies such as Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Jingke, Jingao and atlas, while the latter is mainly the 600W + photovoltaic open innovation ecological alliance established by photovoltaic upstream and downstream companies such as Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) and Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) .
If you look at the "camps" in the top ten list, the competition between the two sides is more obvious: five of the eight Chinese enterprises in the top ten list focus on 210 components; The 182 camp occupies three seats in the top four, and each has a shipment of more than 20GW.
For their annual performance, some industry observers told the associated press that from the performance point of view, the 210 camp represented by Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) may perform better. Last year, the prices of raw materials such as silicon materials and silicon wafers in the upstream of photovoltaic increased sharply, and the profit margin of downstream cells and modules was greatly compressed. However, Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) still achieved a revenue of 31.265 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 56.9%, benefiting from "demand growth + increased penetration of large-size components"; The net profit was 1.156 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.05%.
silicon wafer size stirring assembly
Behind the promotion of large-scale components is the rapid iteration of component technology. In terms of efficiency, at present, prec battery has completed the replacement of polycrystalline battery, and the improvement efficiency is close to the theoretical upper limit. When the next generation n-type battery is still in the early stage of industrial development and the manufacturing cost problem has not been completely solved, it has become a compromise choice to improve the power generation by increasing the component size.
At present, the reduction of BOS cost and kwh cost caused by large-size components has been recognized by power station investors. In terms of cost reduction requirements, according to Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , the cost of silicon wafer 210 is 14% lower than that of 182 single watt and 27% lower than that of 166 single watt; Battery module 210 is 0.08 yuan / watt lower than 166 and 182 is 0.049 yuan / watt lower than 166. Therefore, 210 has stronger cost reduction ability than 182.
At the same time, the system BOS cost of 600W + products is 0.08 yuan / W lower than that of 585w and 0.15 yuan / W lower than that of 450W. As an entry-level product of 210, 600W is the upper limit of 182 at present. In contrast, the cost advantage of 210 component BOS is more obvious. Combined with the downward cycle of raw material prices, the manufacturing advantages of 210 will be further highlighted.
However, it is still not easy for 210 components to occupy more market share. According to industry insiders, most of the 182 production lines are upgraded from the original M6 production line, which is the maximum value to meet the compatible size of the existing equipment upgrade. M6, once the mainstream of the market, has obvious inherent advantages, which can be seen from the shipments of Longji, Jingke and Jingao.
At present, 210 silicon wafer manufacturers are stepping up their expansion. Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) it is pointed out on the investor interaction platform that by the end of the third quarter of 2021, the company's 210 production capacity was 43.5gw, and the 210 production capacity is expected to exceed 54gw by the end of the year.
The expansion of silicon wafer production capacity has accelerated the promotion of 210 components. According to the report data of Jibang consulting, as of the third quarter of 2021, a total of 44 component enterprises have the production capacity of large-size and high-power components, of which 27 have realized the production of components of 210 size and below, and the number of enterprises with 210 size compatible with the production line accounts for 61.4% of the number of enterprises in production.
According to statistics, up to now, 210 shipments worldwide have accumulated more than 25gw, and the application of ultra-high power modules has covered the world, including many overseas GW and 100MW projects. With the overall photovoltaic industry entering the 600W + era. Industry analysts believe that the demand for 210 in the global photovoltaic market is increasing year by year, which will promote the continuous growth of global high-power module production capacity and shipment.
accelerated replacement of large silicon wafer
According to the forecast of Jibang consulting, the market share of large-size silicon wafer production capacity will exceed 70% in 2022, and the demand for M6 will accelerate to shrink. From the data, the production capacity and demand of small-size silicon wafers showed a double decline. In 2021, the market share of large-size silicon wafers (182mm-210mm) reached 46.4%, and the output share of 166 silicon wafers decreased from 46% in the third quarter to 21%. The proportion of 210 silicon wafer output increased slightly to 15.56%,
Jibang consulting predicted in the report that in 2022, the total capacity of large-size battery chips accounted for about 64%, of which 210 size was 260.4gw, accounting for 50.2%; In 2022, the capacity of large-size components will reach 349.9gw, accounting for 74.6% of the total market, of which the capacity of 210 components will reach 206.8gw, accounting for 44.1% of the market.
In the downstream battery segment, the large-size battery market will account for 74% in 2022, and the demand for 166 and below will gradually shrink. The large-scale layout of the battery link continues to be promoted. In 2021, the large-scale capacity compatible with 182 and 210 in the battery link will reach 266.2gw, accounting for 64.3% of the market.
Affected by the growth of large-scale supply and demand, the enterprise's old production capacity will accelerate the upgrading iteration and demand transfer. The production capacity of 166mm and below will further decline in 2022, and the market share of production capacity in the industry is expected to decline to 20.1%.
It is worth mentioning that the silicon wafer link previously guarded by Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) and Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) duopoly will introduce more competitors. At present, Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) (600481. SH), Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) (603185. SH) have entered the field of silicon wafers. From the perspective of capacity planning, new entrants are mainly 210 capacity.
In this regard, industry analysts told the financial associated press that since the 210 size silicon wafer cannot be produced by transforming the existing silicon wafer production line below 166 size, the historical burden of new entrants is small. At the same time, 182 component enterprises are more integrated, and the market procurement demand is expected to be less than 210 silicon wafers.
At present, Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) has signed a long-term contract for silicon wafer procurement with Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) , Atlas, Tongwei, etc., and all point to 210 large-size products; The growth furnace purchased by Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) subsidiary can directly produce 210 silicon wafers and give consideration to the production of 182 / 166 silicon wafers to meet the needs of downstream enterprises for large-scale replacement of silicon wafers.
