Since 2022, the style switching of A-share market has continued. On January 19, the main stock indexes of A-Shares fell collectively. From the perspective of the industry, building materials and other sectors benefiting from the steady growth policy bucked the trend, while the high boom track represented by new energy and national defense and military industry continued the callback trend.
Combined with the macro environment and policy changes outside China, the main line of stable growth in the near future has become the consensus of more and more securities companies. In the view of insiders, the continuous implementation of stable growth policies and marginal economic expectations will help the interpretation of the spring market. The steady growth policy is expected to continue, and infrastructure, consumption and other industries are worthy of layout.
outstanding performance of building materials industry
On January 19, the gem index adjusted significantly. Data show that as of the close, the gem index fell 2.17% to 3075.98 points. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remained above 1 trillion yuan, and the net capital inflow from the North was nearly 4 billion yuan.
From the perspective of the industry sector, the market style switching continues to perform. Among the 31 Shenwan level industries, the building materials industry index benefiting from the steady growth policy significantly outperformed other industries with an increase of 3.17%; The previously optimistic high boom track, such as national defense and military industry and power equipment industry index, fell by more than 2%.
Since 2022, the A-share market has been in a shock callback state as a whole, and the rhythm of style switching has been significantly accelerated. According to China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) analyst Wang Wulei, the recent style switching is more caused by the change of risk preference and risk-free interest rate. At present, the market is still in a state of slight decline in risk preference and rapid rebalancing of market style. "From the short-term perspective, combined with the observation of various rotation models, it is recommended to balance the allocation of large and small stocks, and shift the allocation focus to value stocks." Wang Wulei said.
From the perspective of market value, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) strategy analyst Xu Chi said that the current main board market registration system and related delisting system have accelerated in an all-round way. Combined with the steady growth in the first quarter of this year, social finance and other indicators are expected to stabilize technically. At this time, the Shanghai 50 index represented by heavyweight stocks and large cap stocks may perform better, while small and medium-sized market value companies may face some adjustment. However, considering the support of monetary easing for the valuation of growth stocks, the adjustment of gem weighted growth stocks may be coming to an end, and the probability of gem will enter the bottom period.
steady growth measures are gradually implemented
Recently, the market has gradually heated up the discussion on policies related to steady growth. On January 17, the central bank launched a 700 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and a 100 billion yuan open market reverse repurchase. The bid winning interest rates of both operations were reduced by 10 basis points, which was regarded by many institutions as a signal of the landing of a new round of monetary easing cycle.
In the view of Zheng Xiaoxia, chief analyst of Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) strategy, the implementation of higher than expected interest rate cuts sounded the horn of intensive introduction of stable growth policies, and the current monetary policy and liquidity are in a more positive time window. With the continuous efforts of steady growth measures, economic growth is expected to improve marginally in the first quarter of this year and exceed market expectations. "The continuous implementation of the steady growth policy and the marginal good economic expectation will help the interpretation of the restless market in spring. This rate cut beyond expectations is expected to become the east wind for the start of this round of restless market." Zheng Xiaoxia said.
From the perspective of macro and industrial policies, the national development and Reform Commission recently issued the notice on doing a good job in promoting consumption in the near future, which is intended to further release residents' consumption potential and promote a stable start of the economy in the first quarter.
According to Zhu Haiyang, a strategic analyst at Anxin securities, compared with the relevant notices on promoting consumption issued in the previous two years, it can be found that this year's notice is relatively earlier, reflecting the spirit of the central economic work conference. In addition, the notice is relatively clearer on the subject of policy implementation, and may be relatively faster on the implementation rhythm of consumption promotion measures. "In combination with the spirit of the central economic work conference and the centralized commencement of major projects in Shanghai, we believe that we should not underestimate our determination to stabilize growth in policy." Zhu Haiyang said.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) Dai Kang, chief strategic analyst, pointed out that from the perspective of the stable growth policy in the typical profit downward period in history, each round of stable growth cycle will have three important nodes, namely, clear tone setting and steering, initial policy implementation and intensive policy verification. Setting the tone and initial policy implementation are not sufficient conditions for the market to stabilize or rise, and often need to wait for intensive verification, that is, the profit expectation bottoms out; However, from the perspective of the industry's excess return, the time to increase the allocation of the main line of stable growth is after the tone setting shift.
seize opportunities in infrastructure and consumption
From the perspective of investment, what sectors and directions are worth grasping in the current main line of steady growth?
Zheng Xiaoxia thinks, It is recommended to focus on two subdivision directions: "First, the power in infrastructure construction, such as power grid construction, power grid operation, transmission and distribution, UHV, etc.; second, the traditional direction in infrastructure construction, such as building materials, etc. in addition, we are optimistic about the layout opportunities of the consumer sector, mainly focusing on the price rise chain, such as food processing, dairy products, seasonings, etc., as well as the pharmaceutical and biological industry with valuation and repair space."
Dai Kang believes that the adjustment of this round of popular track stocks may be coming to an end. In 2022, under the background of declining profits and rising central yield of US bonds, it is recommended to continue to maintain a balanced configuration, and recommend securities companies, white electricity, consumer building materials, new energy vehicles, power batteries, motors, food processing, agriculture and other industries for specific directions.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) Zhang Xia, chief strategic analyst, believes that after the two local sessions, the issuance of special bonds may gradually speed up, and some measures to stabilize growth may focus on after the two sessions and drive the improvement of financing demand. At that time, the growth rate of new social finance may be significantly improved and lead A-Shares out of the steady growth market. "In the short term, growth industries may benefit from a loose liquidity environment, such as TMT, power equipment, etc.; in addition, they can continue to layout relevant sectors that benefit from steady growth." Zhang Xia said.
