On January 18, Liu Guoqiang, vice governor of the central bank, said at a press conference that we should open the monetary policy toolbox a little bigger and maintain the stability of the total amount. Guan Qingyou said bluntly on his microblog: "if there is no trading limit for thousands of shares tomorrow (January 19), I think the organization has lost its mind."
However, on January 19, A-Shares showed a slight correction. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33% to 3558.18 points, and the gem index fell 2.17% to 3161.51 points, a relatively obvious decline. Why does the market behave like this? "Whose brain is in trouble"?
In this regard, the financial Associated Press interviewed a number of fund companies. In the view of fund companies, there was no sharp rise or internal and external hedging. On the one hand, the central bank said that the monetary policy toolbox should be opened a little bigger to avoid credit collapse. In addition, the interest rates of MLF and Omo fell by 10bp on Monday, and the signal of wide currency was unprecedented strong; On the other hand, the rapid rise of US bond interest rates last night triggered a sharp decline in US stocks, and the NASDAQ fell 2.6%, suppressing risk appetite. The confrontation between internal and external good and bad has led to the sharp rise that we did not expect today.
"The current chaotic pattern of reverse investment is only temporary." Some fund companies believe that under the background of downward profits and upward residual liquidity, it is expected that the general trend in 2022 will still be dominated by shocks. Another public offering said that there is no negative fundamentals in individual stocks such as auto parts with a large decline today, and most growth stocks similar to them are expected to form a "gold pit" after a short-term decline.
Why is the market still falling?
After the central bank issued the water release signal, the market did not rise as expected, but performed mediocrely.
Hu Xijin, who has no contact with the capital market, also posted a microblog to express his views.
Golden Eagle Fund observed that the current expectation of monetary tightening around the Federal Reserve will suppress the risk preference of high valued scientific and technological growth, especially in the time window with low risk preference before China's Spring Festival. The market is worried that although China's monetary policy can be relaxed at present, its space and sustainability will be subject to external constraints in the long term, resulting in internal and external hedging.
Although in the context of the confrontation between good and bad at home and abroad, there was no big rise expected today, on the contrary, the growth style represented by new energy led the market, and the pharmaceutical sector also fell across the board due to the higher than expected intensity of centralized mining. However, the old and new infrastructure related to steady growth, financial, real estate and TMT sectors closed well. Wang Jing, chief strategic analyst of ChuangJin Hexin fund, analyzed that this shows that the main line of the market is still on the side of steady growth.
"The external macro shock has not ended, the market risk appetite has decreased, and the performance of the overvalued sector has been suppressed. It is difficult for the boom track valuation to return to the high level. The main line of the restless market in spring is on the side of the meta universe, the damage of the epidemic and the steady growth of undervalued values." Wang Jing said.
According to the analysis of TEDA Manulife fund, there are three reasons for this. First, benefiting from the double drop of MLF and reverse repo interest rate on Monday, A-Shares have performed yesterday. At present, the market still has differences on the five-year LPR quotation on the 20th of this month, mainly focusing on the game of reducing 5bp and 10bp.
Second, although the central bank's statement yesterday afternoon was extremely positive, the easing emphasized by the central bank may not be the same concept as the easing understood by the market. The central bank focuses on broadening credit and preventing credit collapse, rather than simply releasing water. Therefore, the improvement of corporate valuation in the future does not stem from the rising tide, but from the rising profits brought by practical credit, which is highly related to the "silence of popular concept stocks, pre increase of performance and strength against the trend" on the disk today.
Third, the recent reduction of overseas technology stocks has triggered a large number of "waist cuts" of stocks in the Nasdaq market. Superimposed on the eagle of the Federal Reserve's expectation of raising interest rates this year and the long Spring Festival holiday, they have depressed the short-term risk appetite of the A-share market, especially growth stocks.
The JPMorgan fund also mentioned that yesterday, the yield of 0-year US Treasury bonds rose 8.94 basis points to 1.88%, triggering a sharp decline in US stocks. The NASDAQ index representing science and technology growth stocks fell 2.6% yesterday, and the S & P 500 and Dow Jones index also fell more than 1.5%. Then, major Asian markets were affected and fell.
TEDA Manulife Fund said that China is in the early stage of the interest rate reduction cycle. Under the uncertain factors such as the rise of covid-19 epidemic, the central bank's monetary policy is still likely to be further relaxed in time and space. It is expected to see the continuous reduction of deposit reserve ratio and interest rate in February.
"However, there are two bottom lines for the" interest rate cut "of the Central Bank of China: one is to maintain a positive interest margin with the interest rate of the United States; the other is to keep the real interest rate related to Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) financial management such as deposits positive. Anyway, once the interest rate cut can achieve the effect of" broadening credit ", corporate profits will become an important factor in driving up the stock index."
"Generally speaking, the market at the end of the year has two characteristics: expected switching and data empty window. Expected switching is reflected in the switching of market profit and valuation outlook to the new year, and the data empty window reflects the expected decoupling caused by the long performance empty window period between the disclosure of the third quarterly report and the first quarterly report of the next year, which makes the market from the end of the year to the Spring Festival often have poor indicative significance." Huaxia Fund analysis.
after falling or now "gold pit"?
"The current chaotic pattern of reverse investment is only temporary." Huaxia Fund believes that under the background of downward profit and upward residual liquidity, it is expected that the general trend in 2022 will still be dominated by shocks. Therefore, the primary allocation strategy is: now is the allocation window for the growth and prosperity direction of 2022. We should strengthen the allocation and be optimistic about new energy, military industry, computers, etc.
At the same time, considering that the inflection point of the boom structure valuation order needs to go to Q2, Huaxia Fund said that it can still screen some potential reversal directions. Based on the screening criteria that did not decline sharply in the previous year and increased by more than 100% in that year, it is optimistic about farming and feed in agriculture as reverse asset allocation.
"Today's large decline in military and power equipment shows that the adjustment of relevant sectors may still continue, but whether from the fundamentals or the long-term logic of the industry, China's pursuit of" carbon neutrality "and the long-term goal of building a strong military in a century have not changed." Therefore, the Shanghai Investment Morgan Fund said that the recent continuous adjustment makes the current valuation of relevant industries more cost-effective, which is still the direction of sustainable concern.
TEDA Manulife Fund said that there is no negative fundamentals in individual stocks such as auto parts with large decline today, and most growth stocks similar to it are expected to form a "gold pit" after a short-term decline. In addition, the "steady growth" throughout the year will provide continuous benefits for blue chips such as infrastructure.
Therefore, the company said that it can be balanced in the future, and is optimistic about large financial sectors such as old and new infrastructure and banks, as well as boom sectors such as military industry, scientific and technological intelligence, computers, digital economy and wind energy storage.
In Wang Jing's view, under the background that China's policy is biased towards stable growth and broad currency, and the purpose is to broaden credit, in the short term, the direction of stabilizing the economy benefits more from the policy. The digital economy and infrastructure real estate are still the main melody of this period of time, and the valuations of these sectors have not increased in the structural bull market in the past three years, but have been compressed. Last year, the market differentiation pattern was converging, and the rebalancing of style will remain for some time.
"At present, the main line of steady growth is still in the stage of valuation repair. Before the substantive implementation of the policy and the verification or falsification of the steady growth effect, the policy expectation of the market around the main line of steady growth can still provide repair support. Under the game of stock funds, it presents a siphon effect on the scientific and technological growth sector." According to the analysis of golden eagle fund, in the medium and long term, new energy, military industry and other science and technology sectors may still have a high outlook in 2022, and the short-term adjustment is more due to financial and emotional factors. When the market policy and liquidity are relaxed, the market attention may return to the scene, and the adjusted core assets may usher in layout opportunities.
Back to the market, the company believes that the restlessness in spring can still be slowly planned. In terms of industry allocation, Golden Eagle Fund suggests that before the Spring Festival, before the "stable growth" policy has not been fully implemented, the risk appetite of A-share funds still tends to be defensive. In the short term, it is more biased towards the main line of "stable growth" of undervalued Value Catalyzed by expected policies, namely bank real estate chain, new and old infrastructure chain and mass consumption. New energy, military industry and other science and technology sectors may still maintain a high boom in 2022. After this round of adjustment, in the subsequent intensive disclosure period of the quarterly report, the business direction with high performance and cost-effective performance can still be adjusted.
