recently, due to the repeated covid-19 epidemic, it is inconvenient for people to go shopping. A sector of "prefabricated dishes" has heated the capital market, the share prices of relevant concept stocks have soared, and some stocks have even attracted the attention of regulators. On January 18 and 19, most concept stocks began to callback.
According to the securities times e reporter survey, prefabricated Kwai is not new. In essence, it is a general term for many years of canned food, cooked food, frozen frozen foods and the recent emergence of refrigerated fast food. Despite the rapid growth of the frozen and cold collection market in the industry in recent years, the whole prefabricated vegetable market is still in the cultivation period, and the industry threshold is low, there are many and miscellaneous enterprises, the competition is very fierce, and the gross profit margin of subdivided head enterprises is not high, generally below 30%. In addition, people in the industry generally believe that at present and in the future, prefabricated dishes will mainly face the b-end enterprise market, which is difficult to become a normal necessity for the families of C-end consumers.
The research report points out that the current market stock of prefabricated vegetables is about 300 billion yuan, accounting for less than 10% of the total food materials. if the compound growth rate of 20% per year is estimated, China's Prefabricated vegetable market can grow into a trillion yuan market in the next 6-7 years. If we refer to the Japanese market with a similar diet structure to China, and the proportion of prefabricated dishes reaches more than 60%, the scale of China's Prefabricated dish market will reach more than 3 trillion yuan in the mature period, and there is huge development space.
prefabricated dishes are not new
After the new year's Day holiday in 2022, on January 4, the three major indexes of A-Shares fell together, prefabricated vegetable concept stocks rose sharply against the trend, Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) 20% limit, and individual stocks such as Dahu Aquaculture Co.Ltd(600257) , Shandong Huifa Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603536) , Springsnow Food Group Co.Ltd(605567) , Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) rose together. since then, the concept sector of prefabricated dishes has remained strong. As of the closing on January 17, Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) shares have risen 116% and Fortune Ng Fung Food (Hebei) Co.Ltd(600965) , Haixin Foods Co.Ltd(002702) , Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) shares have risen nearly 50%. During this period, many stocks continuously issued announcements on share price changes to remind them of risks. On January 17 Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) , they received a letter of concern issued by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. On January 18 and 19, the prefabricated vegetable sector pulled back as a whole, and some stocks remained strong.
" in fact, prefabricated dishes have existed long ago, and many companies have been carrying out relevant businesses, such as sheep scorpion hotpot with Xibei naked oats and quick-frozen dish products of New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) Liuhe. As early as 2014, Anhui guangsmelly mandarin fish sold more than 400 million yuan a year. " Yuan Chao, deputy director of the productivity promotion center of the food industry, said in an interview with the reporter of the securities times · e company.
Yuan Chao introduced that prefabricated dishes developed from cooked food, but cooked food at that time was mainly meat products. With the gradual upgrading of market demand, there are more and more kinds of dishes, and there are gradually meat and vegetable dishes such as Kung Pao diced chicken, plum vegetable braised meat, fish flavored shredded meat and so on. In terms of preservation methods, it is mainly divided into three kinds of prefabricated vegetables: normal temperature preservation, frozen preservation and cold preservation. Many normal temperature products adopt soft can technology, and the shelf life is usually more than one year; The shelf life of frozen products is generally more than half a year, and some products are prefabricated to seven or eight mature in advance; The shelf life of refrigerated meals is generally no more than 7 days.
"At present, there is no unified standard for prefabricated dishes in the industry. Different products are divided into cooked meat food, convenience food or primary Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) for management. Prefabricated dishes are equivalent to the general name of such finished or semi-finished dishes." Yuan Chao said that in recent years, due to the continuous development of China's cold chain technology and the change of consumer behavior habits, frozen prefabricated dishes have developed rapidly. At present, frozen dishes are also the main dishes in the market. Its taste recovery has certain advantages over normal temperature, and consumer acceptance is also high. In addition, the refrigerated precooked vegetables also grew faster. Fujian, Guangdong and other regions were called Kwai Chi, but they haven't been widely popularized.
According to Euromonitor consulting data, the consumption of prefabricated vegetables in China was only 1011300 tons in 2007. By 2021, the consumption of prefabricated vegetables in China reached 1747200 tons, approaching the consumption of prefabricated vegetables in Japan of 2118600 tons, accounting for 10.34% of the world's consumption of prefabricated vegetables from 7.92% in 2007 to 10.34% in 2021.
"It is undeniable that prefabricated dishes will be a trend of Chinese food industrialization. Although prefabricated dishes are now becoming a new term, they have a long history. In a nutshell, they are actually a standardized pre prepared raw material for catering industrialization." Huang Yue, an associate professor of the food College of China Agricultural University, said in an interview with reporters that western countries have realized a high degree of industrialization of preparation, processing and delivery of simple meals and takeout for a long time. With the rapid development of China's social economy and the continuous expansion of the catering and takeout market, traditional dishes cooked slowly and carefully can not meet the requirements of consumers for waiting time, Therefore, the standardized semi-finished products or primary processing raw materials meet the needs of catering enterprises. The future market of prefabricated vegetables is very large, which is a very clear development direction for the fast-moving catering industry.
Huang Yue believes that the development of prefabricated dishes will be affected by different factors such as industrialization, intelligence, sanitation, traceability and intensification. While meeting the safety access permit, manufacturing the largest scale products with both taste and taste in the shortest time is the most perfect temsector for the development of prefabricated dishes.
it is difficult to become a normal household necessity
The development mode and future development direction of prefabricated dishes have also attracted much attention. Industry insiders generally believe that at present, the development space of b-end market is large.
Yuan Chao told reporters that from the perspective of production and marketing mode, at present, prefabricated dishes are mainly for b-end enterprise customers and C-end consumers, mostly b-end catering enterprises, canteens and takeout systems, because prefabricated dishes can reduce the cost of catering enterprises, reduce labor and rent expenses, and improve production efficiency, which will have a subversive impact on the business model and production mode of catering enterprises. In the short term in the future, the prefabricated dishes in the C-end market may maintain a relatively stable market share. However, with the development of the economy of the young generation, the development of the C-end market is also expected.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) the research report shows that at present, the largest demand in the downstream of the prefabricated vegetable industry comes from the catering industry, accounting for 80%. Snack bars, chain stores, take away restaurants, rural kitchens and group canteens are the main scenarios for the application of prefabricated dishes.
Zhou Yunnan, founder of Beijing Nanshan investment, also said in an interview with the reporter of the securities times · e company that the main market of prefabricated dishes in the future will still be at the b-end. At present, many chain catering enterprises implement the operation mode of prefabricated dishes, and the b-end market has a lot of room for development; As for C-end customers, they will pay more attention to the freshness of ingredients, food safety and taste characteristics. Therefore, when returning to their own table, the probability of purchasing prefabricated dishes is low. Only in special cases, in order to pursue the quickness and diversity of finished dishes, will they have a demand for prefabricated dishes.
In January 18th, nearly 8 points, reporters in Futian District, Shenzhen, a large Kwai Chao found that its refrigerated fast food shelves, still full of goods, and many of the products for the time (near the last day of shelf life).
In addition, other quick-frozen product areas are still full of goods and few people, indicating that the demand for prefabricated vegetables in the C-end market is not particularly strong.
However, Bai Wenxi, chief economist of IPG China, told reporters that the future development direction of the prefabricated vegetable market should pay equal attention to the C-end and b-end, and different channels are quite different in terms of batch, type, personalization and diversity of products, consumption scenes and product publicity.
"At present, the large-scale production of prefabricated vegetables is more widely connected with the b-end, but it does not rule out gradually facing the C-end consumer market in the future." Huang Yue said.
Data show that during the "online New Year's festival" hosted by the Ministry of Commerce last year, the sales of rice products increased by 96% year-on-year, of which semi-finished products, namely prefabricated vegetable products, increased by more than 380%. In addition, according to the statistics of Jingdong fresh food data, the overall sales amount of prefabricated vegetables in January this year has exceeded 10 million, with a year-on-year increase of about 94%, and the sales of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou account for nearly 50%.
Yuan Shuai, Deputy Secretary General of Rural Revitalization and Construction Commission, said in an interview with the reporter of securities times · e company that although the prefabricated vegetable market is developing rapidly, the industry still faces some pain points restricting the development of the industry, such as product taste, supply chain, large-scale and standardized production. In terms of logistics, prefabricated semi-finished vegetable products rely on cold chain transportation, and the requirements of logistics cost and product freshness limit the product distribution radius of a single enterprise. At present, semi-finished food enterprises can only cover certain areas, and there is no national leading enterprise of semi-finished food. In addition, due to the great differences in eating habits in different regions of China, most prefabricated vegetables are difficult to sell in other regions.
Wen Zhihong, a chain industry expert and general manager of Hehong consulting, told reporters that the development of prefabricated dishes still faces some bottleneck problems. From the demand side, the market is still in the cultivation period, especially in the C-end market. Many consumers do not know enough about prefabricated dishes, and there are still concerns about the quality of prefabricated dishes. In addition, compared with China's rich traditional cuisine, there is still a big gap in fireworks in prefabricated dishes.
the industry is highly competitive and the gross profit margin is low
The fast-growing market and huge market prospect have attracted many players. According to the Research Report of Guohai Securities, there are about 20000 upstream prefabricated vegetable enterprises. according to the data of China stock market news choice, at present, there are 29 companies in the concept of A-share prefabricated dishes, including all kinds of related enterprises such as A-share food, hotels and chain supermarkets, such as China Quanjude(Group) Co.Ltd(002186) , Yantai Shuangta Food Co.Ltd(002481) , Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) , Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) , Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) .
at present, A-share enterprises mainly engaged in prefabricated dishes include Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Gaishi food, Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) , Yike food, etc.
Among them, Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) began to make prefabricated dishes in 2008, mainly engaged in the development, production and sales of more than 200 kinds of semi-finished dishes in three categories: meat and poultry, aquatic products and others. In April 2021, the halo of "the first stock of prefabricated vegetables" landed in a shares. At present, the market value of the company is RMB 8.638 billion.
In 2016, Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) revenue and net profit were 291 million yuan and 41 million yuan respectively. In 2020, the company's revenue and net profit will be 622 million yuan and 125 million yuan respectively. In the first three quarters of 2021, Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) achieved a revenue of 570 million yuan and a net profit of 103 million yuan. In 2020, Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) gross profit margin was 29.46%, and in 2021, its gross profit margin was 25.9%.
Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) said in the prospectus that there are many participants in China's semi-finished food market, the competition is fierce, and the entry threshold is relatively low. Manufacturers only need to have the basic processing equipment and necessary early investment of semi-finished food to participate in the semi-finished food market. With the intensification of market competition, the company's gross profit margin is at risk of decline.
Low gross profit margin is a common phenomenon in the industry, Dahu Aquaculture Co.Ltd(600257) currently has three core series of prefabricated dishes: fresh series, chilled series and frozen series, including Great Lake organic bighead carp, great lake organic turtle and Yangcheng Lake hairy crab. In the first half of 2021, the operating revenue of the company's aquatic products division was RMB 332 million, accounting for 56.50% of the total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 39.61%, but the gross profit margin of aquatic products was only 16.56%.
Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) as the "first share of the quick-frozen supply chain" focusing on quick-frozen rice noodles and fast food, it landed in a share in September 2021. The company's main business is the R & D, production and sales of quick-frozen noodles and rice products for catering enterprises. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company's revenue was 889 million yuan, net profit was 56.59 million yuan and gross profit rate was 21.84%.
On January 18, 2022, Yike food, the leading poultry food, successfully landed on the gem. The company is mainly engaged in poultry slaughtering, feed, breeding poultry, and the production and sales of cooked food and conditioning products. In 2019, the gross profit margin of Yike food duck products was only 2.55%, down from 3.78% in 2018. In 2020, the gross profit margin of Yike food duck products will drop again to 1.83%. From January to June 2021, the gross profit margin of Yike food duck products gradually recovered to 3.47%, still lower than the level in 2018.
In addition, Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) is mainly engaged in the R & D, production and sales of quick-frozen hot pot products, quick-frozen noodles and rice products, quick-frozen dishes and other quick-frozen foods. The company's gross profit margin was 21.83% in the first three quarters of 2021. In addition, Gaishi food is mainly a manufacturer of cold dishes, and Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) is the largest manufacturer of quick-frozen food in China. The gross profit margin of the former was 20.67% in the first three quarters of last year and that of the latter was 26.12%.
In addition to the above main prefabricated vegetable enterprises, some other A-share enterprises have also been involved in the prefabricated vegetable business. On January 18, Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) replied to the letter of concern from Shenzhen Stock Exchange, which revealed that in the first three quarters of 2019, 2020 and 2021, the company realized the revenue of prefabricated vegetables of 634 million yuan, 730 million yuan and 577 million yuan respectively, accounting for 13.69%, 16.24% and 17.49% of the company's revenue respectively, and the gross profit margin of prefabricated vegetables were 19.72%, 18.74% and 26.16% respectively.
In addition, according to Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) , the operating revenue of prefabricated dishes related products accounted for about 11.22% and 9.79% of the company's overall operating revenue in 2020 and the first three quarters of 2021, respectively. Among them, in the first three quarters of 2021, the gross profit margin and net profit margin of prefabricated vegetable related products were about 20% and 2.78% respectively. In 2020, the company's narrow volume of prefabricated vegetables (excluding low-temperature meat products) was more than 400 million, and its revenue grew rapidly in 2021. It is estimated that the revenue of prefabricated vegetables in 2022 will be about 1.2 billion yuan.
Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) disclosed that the company's operating revenue in the first three quarters of 2021 accounted for less than 5% of the company's operating revenue, which is still in its infancy. It disclosed that Anhui Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) Food Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, is involved in the prefabricated vegetable business, which is still in its infancy. As of September 30, 2021, the operating revenue of this business accounted for less than 1% of the company's operating revenue.
it is reported that at present, the industry is relatively scattered and there is no head enterprise. In China, the market penetration of prefabricated vegetables is still low. The five year (2021-2025) work plan of China Cuisine Association once proposed that the penetration rate of Chinese prefabricated dishes is only 10% - 15% at present, and it is expected to increase to 15% - 20% in 2030.
In Japan, the penetration rate of prefabricated vegetables has reached more than 60%.
reporter's observation: hot money speculation of prefabricated vegetable introduction institutions needs to pay attention to the risk of overheating in the short term
The prefabricated vegetable market has attracted the participation of investment institutions in the primary and secondary markets. In terms of the venture capital circle in the primary market, the emerging prefabricated vegetable brands such as wangjiadu food, Zhenwei xiaomeiyuan and three meals with materials under Meizhou Dongpo have obtained financing in 2021. Among the investors, there are many well-known institutions such as Sequoia China, IDG capital and Qingsong fund. After Lu Zhengyao, founder of Ruixing coffee, announced the launch of the "fun noodle" brand last year, he also recently stepped into the prefabricated vegetable track and launched the "tongue workshop" project.
The secondary market is one of the hot appearances of prefabricated vegetables recently. Since the beginning of the year, the overall trend of prefabricated vegetable concept stocks has been strong. The concept index closed on January 17, rising nearly 6% as a whole, and the share prices of some stocks doubled during the year. Since January 18, prefabricated vegetable concept stocks began to callback, and only some stocks remained strong. For example, Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) still rose the limit for two consecutive days under the background of the callback of several stocks on January 18 and 19. So far, Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) share price has risen the limit for six consecutive days.
Between the rise and fall of share price, which funds participated in the speculation in the secondary market?
In this wave of prefabricated vegetable market, Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) rose the first in the sector. During the year (to January 17), it rose 116% as a whole. As of the closing on January 19, its increase was still close to 100%.
The dragon and tiger list shows that Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) has been on the list for six times since 2022, and institutional seats continue to be on the list. On that day, they buy or sell the top five, and most of them have carried out t + 0 operation. For example, on January 12, Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) 20% of the limit rose. On that day, one institution bought 14.83 million yuan, ranking among the top five buyers. At the same time, it sold 17.4159 million yuan, ranking among the top two sellers. In addition, another institution bought 11.55 million yuan and sold 16.8855 million yuan.
On the day of Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) 20% limit rise on January 4, three institutions sold Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) , ranking second to fourth, with a total of 72.83 million yuan. Two institutions also bought when they sold on the same day. On January 17 Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) , the same was true on the day of another 20% limit rise. There were three institutional seats on the list, and they all bought and sold at the same time on the same day.
According to the statistics of the reporter of the securities times · e company, Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) during the six times of climbing the dragon and tiger list, the seats of the business departments of many securities companies ranked among the top five for buying or selling for many times, and also carried out t + 0 operations, such as Huaxin Securities Shanghai Branch, Dongguan Securities Beijing Branch, CICC International Shanghai Branch, Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) Wuxi First Financial Street securities business department Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) Shanghai Pudong New Area Meihua Road Securities Business Department, Guosheng securities Ningbo Sangtian Road Securities Business Department, China stock market news securities Lhasa East Ring Road second securities business department, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) Shanghai Liyang Road Securities Business Department, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) Shenzhen China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) building securities business department.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) pointed out that the prefabricated dishes have the dual catalysis of the Spring Festival and the epidemic, ushering in the tuyere period. This year, many people choose to "celebrate the new year on the spot" during the Spring Festival, and the sales of online and offline prefabricated dishes for new year's Eve dinner are booming. In the short term, we should pay attention to the risk of overheating, the long-term growth trend is clear, and the stocks that can contribute to the performance are preferred. With strong momentum and low industry threshold, the prefabricated vegetable industry has attracted many types of participants, and the competition pattern is extremely scattered.
According to Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) analysts, traditional quick-frozen food enterprises are more likely to become national leaders and give full play to the potential energy of single products. Professional prefabricated vegetable enterprises plough deep into the region and can become small and beautiful enterprises. For upstream agricultural, animal husbandry and aquatic products enterprises, prefabricated dishes are a rare window of business transformation. If the product power advantage is prominent and the b-end and C-end distribution channels are quickly established, it is possible to produce a dark horse enterprise. However, the prefabricated food industry is in its infancy and may face the risk of overheating in the short term. Some listed companies have just started to set foot in the prefabricated food industry, and their contribution to the performance is not high in a short time. At present, it is in the leading stage of market expectation.
A sector of "prefabricated dishes" is still in the cultivation period
Has the "air outlet" of prefabricated dishes passed? The overall heat of the sector has dropped significantly, and leading companies have received regulatory attention one after another
