At 9:15 this morning, the central bank announced that LPR was “double down”! In January, the one-year LPR reported 3.70%, down 10 basis points; Varieties with a maturity of more than 5 years reported 4.60%, down 5 basis points.
After the news came out, the three major A-share indexes opened red, including the strong rise of the real estate sector and the sharp rise of stocks and bonds; Moreover, aquaculture and Baijiu are also strengthening. Hong Kong stocks are even more Carnival: the Hang Seng technology index soared by more than 3%, and Tencent soared by more than 4%.
LPR “double landing”!
At 9:15 on January 20, the LPR (quoted interest rate in the loan market) highly concerned by the capital market was announced in anticipation: the one-year LPR was 3.7%, down 10 basis points; LPR over 5 years was 4.6%, down 5 basis points.
The data show that the LPR over 5 years has decreased after 21 months. Previously, the LPR over 5 years has not moved since April 2020 and has been maintained at 4.65%.
It is worth noting that the interest rate was previously released at 9:30.19. The central bank announced that in order to strengthen expectation management and promote better connection between LPR release time and financial market operation time, the LPR release time was adjusted from 9:30 a.m. on the 20th of each month (postponed in case of holidays) to 9:15 a.m.
Let the market more expect that LPR will both decline. This time, the decline of LPR is consistent with the general expectation in the industry.
home loans are going down
all industries affected
How does the decline of LPR affect? Specifically, compared with the one-year LPR adjustment that mainly affects liquidity loans (mainly short-term corporate liquidity loans and personal short-term consumer loans), the five-year LPR reduction has a greater coverage to reduce the financing cost of the whole society. The real estate market is highly concerned about the linkage between more than 5-year LPR and housing loans. In fact, whether the interest rate has changed has become an important signal in the market, affecting all industries.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, pointed out that based on the calculation of 1 million stock housing loans, the monthly supply will be reduced by 30 yuan.
sun Haibo, President of the Institute of financial supervision, analyzed . After the interest rate cut, the enterprises and residents of the loan will benefit: if the mortgage interest rate is LPR + 30bps, and the 30-year equivalent principal and interest repayment of the 3 million yuan mortgage before the interest rate cut is about 5.7647 million, then the total repayment after the interest rate cut of 5bps is about 5.7318 million (saving interest expenditure of 33000).
According to the data of the central bank, the balance of RMB loans at the end of 2021 was 192.69 trillion yuan, and the annual RMB loans increased by 19.95 trillion yuan in 2021. In terms of sub sectors, household loans increased by 7.92 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 1.84 trillion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 6.08 trillion yuan; Loans to enterprises (Institutions) increased by 12.02 trillion yuan, including 946.8 billion yuan in short-term loans and 9.23 trillion yuan in medium and long-term loans.
For the new RMB 20 trillion loans, if 5bp is lowered, the interest rate can be saved by 10 billion. If the total loan balance is 190 trillion, the interest rate can be saved by nearly 200 billion. Considering the current difficult real estate market, the benefits of interest rate reduction are obvious. The interest rate cut has a great boost to the overall credit market.
Zhao Wei, chief economist of Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) said on 20 that the one-year LPR cut by 10bp and the five-year LPR cut by 5bp were basically in line with market expectations. The recent reduction of MLF interest rate and the signal revealed by the central bank’s press conference have been very clear. The financial sector should take the initiative and move forward; Under the current LPR anchored MLF interest rate framework, after the MLF interest rate was reduced by 10bp, the one-year LPR reduction was also within the market expectation, and the five-year LPR reduction was basically in line with our previous judgment. The reduction of MLF and LPR may not be the end of a new round of monetary easing cycle. Experience shows that the monetary easing cycle often occurs in the stage of economic pressure, and generally reduces the reserve requirement and interest rate for many times; In the new round of easing cycle starting in the second half of 2021, the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates have been implemented, but under the contraction of demand, there may still be further monetary easing, and the pace and intensity of subsequent easing may depend on the effect of steady growth. While liquidity is loose, the central bank may continue to use refinancing and direct tools to guide financial institutions to increase key support for small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation, green development and other fields.
Wen bin, chief researcher of China China Minsheng Banking Corp.Ltd(600016) and Feng Bai, researcher commented on the LPR quotation in January, saying that the central bank lowered the policy interest rate to guide the decline of LPR this month; It is reasonable that the price of LPR in 1-year period decreases by 10bp and that in more than 5-year period decreases by 5bp; The reduction of policy interest rate leads to the decline of LPR quotation, which helps to reduce the comprehensive financing cost of the real economy; In the next stage, macro policies will continue to move forward and combine cross cyclical and counter cyclical adjustment to keep the economy running within a reasonable range.
Huatai solid income review said that this is a press conference with a large amount of information. For the LPR interest rate on the 20th of this month, the basic situation is to reduce 10bp in one-year period and 5bp in five-year period. The broad currency is still on the road. In March and April, it is still the observation window for interest rate reduction, and the uncertainty of RRR reduction is slightly large. At the same time, adding structural policies, the curve is steep and the probability is high under this combination.
CITIC fixed income said that there is still a window and necessity for interest rate reduction in the next half of the year, and it is expected that there will be one or two interest rate cuts in the future, in March or June. In addition, RRR reduction and structural monetary policy tools are also expected to continue to be launched.
CICC fixed income said that the central bank cut the MLF interest rate and started the easing process; Policy steady growth and cross cycle adjustment are the beginning rather than the end; Pay attention to the LPR quotation in January and reduce the certainty synchronously; The possibility of reducing the reserve requirement in the short term is reduced, but the central bank will escort the liquidity of the Spring Festival through other operations; Returning to the bond market, cutting interest rates and fulfilling some market expectations are more to open a new round of downward trend in interest rates than to do everything good.
the monthly payment of one million housing loans can save 30 yuan
Assuming that it is lowered to the next repricing date and LPR is no longer adjusted, how much will the monthly payment of personal housing loans decrease? Based on 1 million housing loans and equal repayment of principal and interest for 30 years, the monthly supply will be reduced by about 30 yuan for every 5 basis points decrease in LPR over 5 years. Taking January 2022 as an example, when the LPR over 5-year term drops to 4.6%, the monthly supply of 1 million housing loans will be reduced from 5156.37 yuan to 5126.44 yuan.
the central bank carried out 100 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase
net investment of 90 billion yuan
In addition, this morning, the central bank announced that in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 100 billion yuan was carried out by means of interest rate bidding on January 20, with a bid winning interest rate of 2.10%. According to wind data, 10 billion yuan of reverse repo expired today, so a net investment of 90 billion yuan was invested on that day.
In terms of capital, the liquidity of the inter-bank market was generally stable on Wednesday. Under the disturbance of monthly tax factors, the overnight weighted interest rate stood above 2% again, and the seven day and 14 day periods also rose. Traders said that although the tax payment is a little disturbing, the central bank’s reverse repurchase has maintained 100 billion for three consecutive days. After the central bank doves expressed their position last day, the institutions have no worries about the future liquidity expectations. It is expected that the rush of funds for the cross spring festival will not be absent.
central bank recent: 10 basis points lower than expected
again: the monetary policy toolbox should be opened wider
Let’s sort out the previous actions of the central bank. On January 17, the people’s Bank of China launched a 700 billion yuan one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and a 100 billion yuan seven-day open market reverse repurchase operation. The bid winning interest rate was cut by 10 basis points more than expected, and the rate cut was more than expected, which also triggered the market’s expectation of LPR interest rate cut.
Subsequently, at the press conference of the State Council Information Office held on January 18, Liu Guoqiang, vice governor of the central bank, said on January 18 that before the downward pressure on the economy is fundamentally relieved, we should serve stability, not introduce policies detrimental to stability, and introduce more policies conducive to stability to promote stability. In short, the current key goal is stability, and the policy requirement is force.
First, we should make sufficient efforts to expand the monetary policy toolbox, maintain the stability of the total amount and avoid credit collapse; Second, the financial sector should not only welcome customers, but also take the initiative to find good projects, make effective addition and optimize the economic structure according to the requirements of the new development concept; Third, we should act forward, operate forward-looking, walk in front of the market curve, and respond to the general concerns of the market in a timely manner. We can’t delay. If we delay for a long time, the concerns of the market will fail, and if we fail, we won’t be concerned. If we don’t care, we will “mourn more than die”, and the later things will be difficult to do.
In terms of how to exert the force of monetary policy, Liu Guoqiang pointed out that it is necessary to promote the steady decline of enterprise financing costs, continue to give full play to the effectiveness of LPR reform, effectively maintain the competitive order of the deposit market and stabilize the cost of bank liabilities.
real estate and property are strongly promoted
collective rise of real estate bonds: more than 20% temporary stop
After the LPR “double drop” message came out, A-Shares opened. The three indexes made a good start.
Among them, the real estate sector opened higher, up 3% as of press time.
Gains were led by Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Tianjin Jinbin Development Co.Ltd(000897) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) .
The same is true for Hong Kong stocks. The real estate index rose nearly 3%.
Property management stocks continued to rise, with Xuhui Yongsheng service up nearly 15%, country garden service up nearly 14% and Shimao service up more than 10%.
Even the shares of China Olympic Park, which has just announced its default, have turned red all the way from a drop of nearly 6%. Previously, it announced that it would not pay the due interest and remaining principal of the relevant notes.
At the same time, real estate bonds rose sharply, “20 rongchuang 02” rose by more than 20% and temporarily suspended during the session, “21 rongchuang 03” rose by more than 21%; “21 rongchuang 01” rose 20%, and trading was temporarily suspended; “20 Yangcheng 03” rose by more than 18%, “20 Rongxin 03” rose by more than 14%, “20 Yangcheng 01” and “21 rongchuang 01”.
Baijiu rose
Agricultural stocks led gains
Driven by real estate, household goods, household appliances and other indexes also rose higher.
Moreover, breeding stocks also rose, with the livestock and poultry breeding sector up nearly 5%, and the chicken industry and pig industry up more than 3%.
Shandong Xiantan Co.Ltd(002746) limit, Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and other stocks rose, and “pig grass” Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) rose by more than 4%.
Baijiu sector high lift, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) once rose over 3%.
Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) rose one after another.
Hang Seng technology rose by more than 3%
Tencent crazy pull 4%
The Hang Seng technology index rose more than 3%.
Both the Kwai Chi and the US group rose by more than 7%. Tencent, Baidu, NetEase and B stood at over 4%, while Jingdong and Ali rose 3%.
Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) fell by the limit again
However, “Dongbei Mao” Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) opened again today. As of press time, the share price was 204.84 yuan and the market value was 82.9 billion yuan. The market value evaporated nearly 20 billion yuan in two days.
The two limit falls of Changchun’s new high are related to the news of centralized drug purchase: according to the prices disclosed in the centralized purchase documents, Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) some dosage forms have been reduced by 70%, far exceeding the market expectation. After hours, in view of the fact that the company’s main product growth hormone was included in the centralized purchase of drugs in Guangdong Province, Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) responded on the interactive platform that it is actively studying the policy provisions and will formulate a reasonable plan. At present, there is no expectation of specific impact.
In terms of the after hours transaction return yesterday, the trading intensity of funds was equal, with a net purchase of 180 million yuan for a Shenzhen Stock connect seat and a net sale of more than 88 million yuan by an institution.
Guangdong provincial government work report steadily promote the debt risk resolution and disposal of Evergrande and other real estate enterprises
According to Nanfang Daily, the fifth session of the 13th Guangdong Provincial People’s Congress opened. Wang Weizhong, acting governor of Guangdong Province, said in his government work report that in accordance with the principle of marketization and rule of law, we should steadily promote the debt risk resolution and disposal of real estate enterprises such as Evergrande group.
