Today (January 20), the three major stock indexes of A-Shares opened slightly lower. After the inertia fell at the beginning of the session, the stock index rose rapidly, and then gradually dived back. Near noon, the stock index stabilized and rebounded again, with a clear view of the strong shock pattern. On the disk, the industry and concept sectors fell more and rose less, the big finance “turned the corner” and “drinking and eating meat” broke out, covid-19 drugs, airport shipping and other sectors showed relatively resistance to decline, and the local profit-making effect was general.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) believes that the current asset prices have partially fulfilled the expectations of easing, the response of the A-share market to the implementation of subsequent easing policies may be relatively “calm”, and the market “structural bull” trend remains unchanged. It is suggested to focus on the undervalued blue chip targets in the configuration.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] pork
Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) mentioned that according to the estimation of breeding cycle, in theory, April May 2022 is the lowest point of pig price. From the perspective of capital, the current pig loss period is shorter than the previous round, and the enterprise cash flow is still better than the bottom of the previous round cycle, and there is no large-scale capital chain fracture in the industry; In terms of sow efficiency, MSY of fertile sows is expected to recover to 18 in 2022 with ternary elimination and binary replenishment; From the emotional point of view, the profit-making effect of the 2020 pig cycle is still vivid, and the rebound of pig prices at the end of the year may affect the speed of capacity removal.
Therefore, it is expected that without the interference of animal epidemic, 22h1 pig price will still be in the downward channel, and the inflection point of pig price is expected to appear in 22q2-q3. The rebound range of pig price still needs to observe the mood of making up the column after the Spring Festival. From the relationship between stock price and pig price, the stock price in the previous cycle often starts an upward trend between the two “pig price bottoms”. Therefore, it is expected that the short-term rebound range of pig price before the Spring Festival this year is the best layout time point.
In addition, Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) believes that from historical experience, nengfan has been in the downward relay, and the subsequent deterioration will be exacerbated with the intensification of breeding losses and the continuous downturn of column filling. The decline of fertile sows every month will be catalyzed by the pig sector. The pig price is in the process of the second bottom of the w bottom. At present, the downward space of the pig price is very limited. Factors such as the change of the marketing rhythm of short-term farmers will affect the fluctuation of the pig price. Even if there is a periodic rebound, as long as the loss inventory is cleared, it will continue. In the second half of the year, it is necessary to verify the pig price, but the first half of the year is a safe period. Despite the recent rebound in the pig sector, the current valuation of the sector, especially the leader, is still at the bottom, with sufficient margin of safety.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) pointed out that the most pessimistic time in the current industry expectation has passed, the downward trend of pig price will continue to reduce the stock of breeding sows, and the inflection point of pig cycle will accelerate. From the current time node, the average market value of some high-quality pig breeding stocks has fallen to a historically low level, and the configuration window has been gradually opened. For the selection of specific targets, it is recommended in turn: Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Shenzhen Kingkey Smart Agriculture Times Co.Ltd(000048) . In addition, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) are expected to benefit fully. []
[theme two] Baijiu
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) believes that for Baijiu enterprises, the Spring Festival accounts for a relatively high proportion of annual sales (about 40%), and the strictness of epidemic prevention and control will lead to the lack of consumption scenes in some provinces during the Spring Festival, thus affecting their Spring Festival sales. Henan has always been a major Baijiu consumption province. The national famous liquor and local strong brands are all in this layout. Under the influence of the epidemic, some of the liquor companies with a higher market share in Henan will be affected. However, other consumption provinces such as Sichuan, Anhui and Jiangsu are less affected by the epidemic. Baijiu enterprises are expected to differentiate in the first quarter. However, the impact of outbreaks in Henan and other markets on the industry as a whole is limited. At present, the fundamentals of the sector are still stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market dynamic sales will continue to improve; The recent sector correction also makes some targets enter the value layout range. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , regional sub high-end leaders (such as Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) ) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) .
From monthly data, Bohai Securities said that Baijiu still runs in the boom cycle and the price cycle of high-end Baijiu will be extended due to price control, and the fine products of public products have opened the price raising cycle. On the sector side, it is still recommended to focus on the more high-end Baijiu, and change the space with time, and pay attention to the secondary high-end market. In terms of mass products, with the opening of the price increase cycle, the upstream cost pressure may be relieved in the second half of the year. At present, the beer sector is still the one with a relatively better competition pattern and smoother pressure transmission, followed by dairy products. The rise of raw milk in the upstream of dairy products has tended to ease. On the basis of good demand and early price increase, the performance is expected to accelerate the release. It is recommended to pay active attention.
Guosheng securities mentioned that the Spring Festival peak sales season is coming, famous liquor enterprises receive good payment, the peak season performance in terms of price is stable without obvious fluctuation, and some areas at the mobile sales end are still repeatedly affected by the epidemic. After the epidemic, terminal stores generally adopt the way of reducing inventory and increasing purchase frequency, and the real needs of consumers and terminal mobile sales still need to be observed, After new year’s day, the delivery of terminal goods is accelerated, and the channel inventory of most famous liquor enterprises is benign. It is expected that the Spring Festival is still expected to achieve benign growth. []
[Theme 3] bank
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) mentioned that the LPR was lowered as scheduled, and the “turn around” market of bank stocks continued. Compared with the pressure of net interest margin, credit cost is the main factor affecting profits at this stage, and the steady growth policy helps to improve the quality expectation of bank assets. We continue to be optimistic about the “good fortune” of banking stocks throughout the year, reiterate the recommendation of high-quality banks with good asset quality and benefiting from wealth management and financial technology opportunities, and also suggest paying attention to some regional banks with deviation in fundamentals and valuation.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) mentioned that looking forward to 2022, wide credit is the boundary of market consensus. It is difficult to determine the subject and scale of wide credit outside the boundary. However, from the perspective of structure, in the incremental credit structure since 2019, the proportion of individual non housing loans has gradually increased, which is the only reliable logic from top to bottom. Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) are recommended.
In addition, Wanlian Securities said that looking forward to the first quarter, the market pessimistic expectations will be repaired, superimposed with strong performance certainty, and the whole sector is expected to remain strong. We upgraded the sector to be stronger than the general trend. In the medium and long term, the internal differentiation of the banking sector will continue. It is suggested to pay attention to the banks with the continuous increase of the proportion of intermediate business income and the banks with the continuous improvement of fundamentals.
In addition, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that the reduction of the policy interest rate in January reflects the policy intention of the central bank to grasp the monetary policy window at the beginning of the year to promote steady growth, credit and expectation. At present, China’s economic operation is in the rebalancing stage of vivid weakening within macro policy overweight hedging. For bank investment, the interest rate reduction operation is expected to affect the interest margin expectation in the short term and benefit the consolidation of asset quality in the medium term. It is suggested to lengthen the time dimension to examine the allocation value of the sector.
[theme 4] securities companies
Open source securities mentioned that the landing of interest rate cut is conducive to the improvement of risk appetite. It is the first to promote the big wealth management track and be optimistic about the securities companies with undervalued value. (1) After the confirmation of broad credit, the market risk appetite is expected to be significantly improved. The growth attribute of the big wealth management track has improved the beta elasticity. At present, the valuation has a safety margin. After deducting the net assets of non big wealth management business, the PE valuation corresponding to the profits of the big wealth management line is 19 / 15 times in 2021 / 2022 respectively. After the confirmation of profit growth, the valuation will be revised.
(2) the allotment of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) shares by the head securities firm is nearly completed, and the refinancing boots are on the ground. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is + 54.2% year-on-year, and roe12.2% 0%, refinancing is expected to optimize the company’s asset structure; The comprehensive registration system reform is good for head securities companies. There is broad space for capital intermediary businesses such as derivatives, securities lending and market making. The growth of fee based business is good, and the roe of head securities companies is expected to rise further. At present, the valuation of head securities companies is at the low point of nearly three years, and they are optimistic about the valuation repair of head securities companies.
In addition, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that policies are frequent and are optimistic about the long-term development of the securities sector. ① Recently, a series of policies to promote the construction of securities companies and capital markets (insurance funds, new regulations on income swaps, comprehensive accounts and the full implementation of the registration system) are conducive to the industrial chain of ficc, wealth management and large investment banks. ② The uncertainty of long-term profit center is rising: the wealth management business continues to grow, and channels, products and investment advisers benefit deeply; The scale of derivatives has maintained rapid growth in recent years, new products have been launched one after another, the superposition system has been continuously standardized, and ficc constitutes the core increment; The construction of multi-level capital market has accelerated, and the science and innovation board and the Beijing stock exchange have brought new increments. At the same time, the reform of the registration system has also brought dividends to the stock business system. ③ There is a great contrast between the fundamentals and policies of securities companies and the valuation. The profits of securities companies continue to reach a new high. Relative to roe, they are close to the level of the previous bull market (2015-2016), but their valuation is still at the bottom 1 / 4 of the historical valuation. We are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies.
AVIC Securities believes that in the long run, there are multiple positive factors with strong certainty in the securities sector: first, there is a high probability of performance. The annual report performance in 2021 will be announced one after another. From the three quarterly reports, the performance of public funds, market trading volume, the scale of funds raised by investment banks and other market performance, most listed securities companies have a high probability of achieving high growth in 2021. At present, the four securities companies that have announced the performance forecast have achieved significant performance growth.
Second, the main line of “steady growth” is clear. For China’s economic development situation in 2022, the central bank, the Ministry of finance, the national development and Reform Commission and other departments will focus on “steady growth”, and it is expected that the “steady growth” policy will continue to work in the future. Therefore, we expect that with the support of stable growth policy, the US interest rate increase will not have much impact on China’s liquidity environment in the short term.
Third, the wealth management track has a long slope and thick snow, which is still an important focus of the industry in the future. In 2022, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) , Nanjing Securities Co.Ltd(601990) and Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) have successively passed the qualification of fund investment advisory business exhibition. At present, 17 securities companies have conducted fund investment advisory business exhibition. To sum up, we believe that the current negative factors have limited impact on the long-term growth of the securities sector, so we are not afraid of short-term disturbance. []
