After the great heat in 2021, the photovoltaic sector "fell heavily" at the beginning of 2022, and the net value of related theme funds withdrew significantly. Many investors are asking whether the photovoltaic industry is not working, or whether photovoltaic stocks are not favored by funds in stages? The first financial reporter recently visited Wuxi, an important photovoltaic City, in an attempt to find new investment highlights and future development trends of the photovoltaic industry.
Speaking of photovoltaic industry, Wuxi is a "fortress" that cannot be bypassed. As a strategic emerging industry, China's photovoltaic industry has gone through 20 years. Geographically, Jiangsu Province has developed rapidly, and Wuxi has become a prefecture level city with the most photovoltaic enterprises.
Wuxi: photovoltaic "first city"
According to the administrative division statistics of wind data, the first financial reporter counted prefecture level cities. 65 shares in the photovoltaic sector came from 35 prefecture level cities. There were 7 photovoltaic enterprises in Wuxi and Suzhou, ranking first. However, from the integrity of the photovoltaic industry chain covered by listed companies, there is no doubt that Wuxi is better and can afford the title of "the first photovoltaic city".
Specifically, the seven photovoltaic stocks are Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) (603185. SH), Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) (688516. SH), Jiangsu Akcome Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002610) (002610. SZ), Sineng Electric Co.Ltd(300827) (300827. SZ), Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) (600481. SH), Wuxi Dk Electronic Materials Co.Ltd(300842) (300842. SZ), Jiangsu Zhenjiang Newenergy Equipment Co.Ltd(603507) (603507. SH). As of January 19, the total market value of the seven stocks amounted to 114.307 billion yuan.
It is not only A-share listed company, but also Suntech, the earliest well-known photovoltaic enterprise in the industry. Its birthplace is Wuxi. The company was established by Shi Zhengrong in January 2001 and is mainly engaged in the manufacturing and sales of crystalline silicon solar cells, modules, photovoltaic system engineering and other products.
According to the data, in 2021, the average share price of seven photovoltaic stocks in Wuxi increased by 89.5%, with a median annual increase of 72.86%, and three stocks doubled. Among them, the two equipment stocks Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) and Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) rose 211.05% and 159.37% respectively, ranking the top two. There is no doubt that Wuxi's "photovoltaic sector" is a gathering place of bull stocks.
Under the goal of "double carbon", there is no doubt about the medium and long-term growth certainty of photovoltaic track. At present, the photovoltaic sector is in the adjustment period after the rapid rise of valuation, and individual stocks are facing the process of digesting valuation with high growth rate of performance. Investors may wonder: how to invest in photovoltaic in 2022? Where is the opportunity?
During the two-day interview in Wuxi, the reporter seemed to have some answers by visiting some listed companies.
plant running at full capacity
Reduction furnace is an essential core component in the silicon wafer production process, and it is also a key link to determine the system capacity and energy consumption. It is no exaggeration to say that the prosperity of reduction furnace production is directly the "barometer" of photovoltaic industry. During the interview in the factory of Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) , the reporter saw that each production workshop is saturated production, and heavy trucks loaded with large equipment go in and out of the factory. When the reporter arrived, it was the meal time in the plant area. The workers lined up in the canteen in an orderly way and had a meal on shift.
This is a local enterprise in Jiangyin, Wuxi, which has been established for nearly 40 years. "We are not new recruits in the photovoltaic industry. On the contrary, we have been deeply cultivated in the photovoltaic industry chain for a long time." Wang Lei, the company's board secretary, said that polycrystalline reduction furnace is their first business to extend to the photovoltaic industry chain. In the past five years, the company's polycrystalline silicon reduction furnace products have maintained the first market share in China, "have long-term cooperation experience with the upstream and downstream of silicon projects, and have technical and product advantages".
The polysilicon reduction furnace comprises a chassis and a furnace body. In the production workshop of Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) , the reporter saw huge polycrystalline silicon reduction furnace bodies. The height of the furnace body is more than twice that of ordinary people.
In addition, more than 40 nozzles are distributed on the chassis, large and small. According to the on-site staff, the nozzle positions on the circumference of these chassis are very particular, mainly for the rational use of heat energy. At the same time, it can also avoid excessive heat passing through the inner wall of the furnace body and reduce heat loss.
(photo source: taken by the first financial reporter)
(photo source: taken by the first financial reporter)
On one side of the workshop, the staff are testing several reduction furnaces. After testing, these reduction furnaces will be coated with silver and transferred to the other side of the workshop. On this side, the finished products of more than ten assembled and tested reduction furnaces will be loaded on trucks and directly transported to the production bases of major customers
(photo source: taken by the first financial reporter)
According to the performance forecast for 2021 released by Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) , the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 285 million ~ 325 million during the reporting period, which has doubled over the same period of the previous year, with a year-on-year increase of 107.4% ~ 136.5%; The net profit after deducting non-profit was about 210 million yuan to 250 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 107.78% ~ 147.36%.
At present, Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) monocrystalline silicon business has received orders from leading enterprises. According to the reporter's statistical announcement, since October 2021, Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) 's joint venture subsidiary Shuangliang silicon materials (Baotou) has signed five silicon wafer contract sales orders, including long silicon wafer sales orders with battery and component leaders such as Runyang, aixu and atlas from 2022 to 2024, with an estimated total sales of 47.736 billion yuan, which means that silicon wafer manufacturing is gradually developing into the company's core business.
On the other hand, on January 11, Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) 's application for fixed increase was officially approved by the development and Examination Committee of the CSRC. The company plans to raise no more than 3.488 billion yuan, of which 3 billion yuan is used for phase I 20GW monocrystalline silicon wafer expansion and 488 million yuan is used to supplement working capital. According to the feedback of the company's fixed increase documents, the company's cooperation with downstream battery and component manufacturers continues to expand and deepen. At present, the cooperation with component enterprises Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) (688599. SH) and Chint new energy is in the pilot stage of products.
It is reported that at present, the company has accelerated the expansion of silicon wafer business. It is expected that the company's production capacity will gradually increase to 7gw by February 2022. In order to ensure the timely supply of single crystal furnace equipment, the company will further purchase single crystal furnaces from Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) at the end of 2021. The total contract amount of the first and second batch of single crystal furnaces will be increased from 1.4 billion yuan to 2.243 billion yuan, and the delivery is required to be completed by may 2022, According to the investment of 140 million yuan / GW in single crystal furnace, the corresponding capacity of the company's locked single crystal furnace equipment was increased from 10GW to 16GW, and the expansion of silicon wafer production of the company was accelerated.
Since the beginning of 2022, on the occasion of the correction of the sector, the performance forecast of individual stocks in 2021 has been released one after another, and the performance of photovoltaic enterprises in equipment and silicon wafer has increased significantly, confirming the strong demand in the downstream.
photovoltaic sector in 2022: pay attention to the profit restoration brought by the landing of new technologies and demand growth
Under the vision of "double carbon", since the beginning of the year, policies related to the photovoltaic industry have been intensively implemented.
Previously, the action plan for innovation and development of smart photovoltaic industry (2021-2025) (hereinafter referred to as the action plan) jointly issued by the five ministries and commissions focused on the word "smart", focusing on the improvement of the intelligent level of photovoltaic industry and industrial technology innovation. The action plan proposes that by 2025, the intelligent level of the photovoltaic industry will be significantly improved and breakthroughs will be made in industrial technological innovation. The mass production conversion efficiency of the new high-efficiency Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery has been significantly improved, forming a complete supporting capacity of silicon materials, silicon wafers, equipment, materials and devices.
Looking back on 2021, the soaring price of silicon material made upstream enterprises the biggest winner. On the other hand, capital scrambled to overweight photovoltaic. A new round of capacity expansion has been started. The upstream price rise has attracted a large number of new players, and seizing market share has become the primary task of enterprises.
It is generally believed in the industry that the demand of the photovoltaic industry is expected to maintain rapid growth and improve quarter by quarter in 2022, mainly due to the accelerated release of silicon material capacity quarter by quarter. New entrants such as Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) and Xinyi solar energy announced their total capacity planning of 200000 tons of polysilicon; At the same time, Daquan, Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) and other silicon material enterprises also released the plan to build more than 200000 tons of polysilicon production expansion in Baotou. The silicon material link will continue to expand production from 2022 to 2023.
A new energy industry analyst told reporters: the photovoltaic industry has gone through "0 to 1". At present, high-quality development is mainly achieved through technological upgrading. There are new technologies expected to land, which deserve close attention. The industry will eventually return to the track of cost reduction, economic improvement and demand growth.
The Research Report of Huaxin Securities pointed out that the essence of the shortage of different links of the industrial chain in the past two years is the decline in the willingness to expand production caused by the periodic low profit caused by the long-term demand and sharp profit fluctuations of the photovoltaic industry. After the advent of the parity era, the certainty of demand growth has increased significantly, and the carbon neutralization policy has also increased the willingness of enterprises outside the industry to invest in the photovoltaic industry for a long time.
The above research report believes that the photovoltaic demand in 2022 is easy to exceed expectations, and has high growth potential in the medium and long term. With the decline of silicon price, the profitability of batteries and components will be repaired to a certain extent, and if the demand exceeds expectations, the profitability will be more flexible.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) according to the research report, we expect that the silicon material supply will remain in tight balance in 2022. The leader benefits from the cost advantage and rapid volume, and the performance is expected to grow high; After the accelerated release of new expanded capacity of silicon wafers, the supply is relatively loose, and the gross profit margin may drop somewhat, but there are still structural opportunities for large-size silicon wafers; With the decline of silicon material price, the certainty of profit repair is strong, and the leader is expected to fully enjoy the dividends brought by new technology; The concentration of component links continues to improve. The integrated leader has multiple advantages in production capacity, brand and channel, and enjoys profit premium in combination with battery technology reform.
