Shanghai reported that on January 19, the latest silicon material quotation released by the silicon industry branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the silicon industry branch) showed that the silicon material price continued to rise this week, with the increase of single crystal re feeding and single crystal dense material both exceeding 2%.
According to the data, this week, the price range of China's single crystal re feeding was 230000-247000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rose to 240000 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2.30%; The price range of single crystal compact was 228000-245000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rose to 237600 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2.19%.
In this regard, the silicon industry branch believes that "the supply increment of silicon materials in China is less than the demand increment, resulting in the situation that silicon materials are in short supply again in the short term. Therefore, the price increase of silicon materials this week is greater than expected."
demand growth in the first quarter
In the past, the first quarter was usually the off-season for photovoltaic installation, but this year's situation is different.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, affected by the upstream price rise, the component quotation once exceeded 2 yuan / W. For the "feverish" component price, the builders of many power stations have low acceptance, and some projects have been delayed. Therefore, some expected installed projects in the fourth quarter of last year were postponed to the first quarter of this year, resulting in an increase in silicon demand at this stage.
Since this year, in order to make up for the delayed installation demand in the fourth quarter, the operating rate of all links has increased significantly. Take the silicon wafer link as an example. According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch last week, the operating rates of the two front-line enterprises rose to 60% and 65%, the operating rates of integrated enterprises remained at 70% to 100%, and the operating rates of other enterprises decreased to 50% to 100%.
Meanwhile, the quotation of silicon wafer differentiated last week. M6 (166mm) monocrystalline silicon wafer increased by 0.4%, M10 (182mm) increased by 2.09%, and G12 (210mm) decreased by 7.77%.
It is reported that the rise in the price of M10 silicon wafer is not unrelated to the 6.9-magnitude earthquake in Menyuan County, Haibei Prefecture, Qinghai Province on January 8. The silicon branch said that the earthquake had a certain impact on the two enterprises in Yinchuan and Qinghai. It is preliminarily expected that the two companies will reduce the supply of silicon wafers by 0.8 to 1GW, resulting in a supply shortage in the short term.
On January 16, Longji updated monocrystalline silicon, and the price of p-type silicon wafer also increased, compared with the last quotation on December 16. The quotation of 158.75mm silicon wafer was 4.95 yuan / piece, an increase of 2.5%; The quotation of 166mm silicon wafer was 5.15 yuan / piece, an increase of 2.4%; The latest quotation of 182mm silicon wafer is 6.15 yuan / piece, an increase of 5.1%.
It is worth mentioning that the overseas market may also usher in a peak demand in the first quarter, mainly affected by India's beginning to levy high component tariffs. India has always imported most Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) batteries and components from China. In order to support local manufacturing and reduce dependence on imported products, the Indian Ministry of finance began to levy more than 14% security tax (SGD) on imported Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) batteries and components in 2020 until July 29, 2021.
A new round of high tariffs will be implemented on April 1, 2022, in which the basic tariff of photovoltaic modules will be adjusted to 40% and that of photovoltaic cells to 25%. This means that only the balance of the first quarter of this year remains in the eight month tax holiday of Chinese photovoltaic modules in the Indian market.
annual supply and demand or phased shortage
The silicon industry branch predicts that the silicon material will continue the operation trend of relatively stable and slight rise before the Spring Festival. Judging from the planning of polysilicon expansion project, "the overall supply and demand of silicon materials in the whole year is basically balanced or insufficient in stages; the maximum surplus of downstream links will appear in the second quarter." The silicon industry branch believes that.
Based on the production expansion plans announced by various enterprises, by the end of 2022, China's annual polysilicon production capacity will reach 860000 tons, an increase of 340000 tons over the previous year. The main increment comes from poly GCL, Yongxiang Co., Ltd. ( Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) 's company), Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , new special energy and Asian silicon industry. Among them, poly GCL and Yongxiang Co., Ltd. are expected to increase energy capacity by 110000 tons and 120000 to 150000 tons respectively this year.
In fact, although the capacity expansion of enterprises is in full swing, there is still a period before they are put into operation. In the annual increment of 340000 tons in 2022, about 180000 tons of production capacity is expected to be released in the second half of the year, and the remaining 160000 tons have been released since the first quarter.
According to the silicon branch, according to the production expansion progress of various enterprises, China's polysilicon output is expected to be 157000 tons, 177000 tons, 181000 tons and 200000 tons respectively on a quarterly basis. The total output of silicon materials in China in the whole year is about 715000 tons. Considering that the annual imported silicon material is expected to remain at about 100000 tons, China's total silicon material supply this year is about 820000 tons, which can meet the terminal installation capacity of about 225gw.
However, considering that the production expansion cycle of silicon wafer is shorter than that of silicon material, with the new production capacity of new forces such as Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) silicon wafer put into operation, the planned production capacity this year will reach 30GW, and the planned production capacity in 2022 will exceed 550gw, an increase of 37.5% year-on-year.
Recently, the overseas installation market is still hot encouraged by policies. The first quarter of China's installation is expected to continue the hot market in December last year. The terminal demand will drive the upstream demand. Therefore, the upstream price still has room to rise.
"After the Spring Festival, the price of silicon material will depend on the landing of installed capacity outside China from 2021 to 2022. The better the demand, the longer the steady and slight rise trend will be maintained." The silicon industry branch said that under the dynamic changes of supply and demand market, the price will also be adjusted passively in the case of periodic oversupply in the intermediate link.
This means that due to the upsurge of downstream demand, despite capacity expansion, the relationship between supply and demand has not been alleviated, the price is difficult to "cool down", and a new round of price game may be restarted.
