Viewpoint: according to PMI data for two consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still anti pumping, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank cut the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank cut the MFL and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, the monetary easing cycle gradually opened, and the market as a whole was still boosted under the expectation of abundant liquidity. In the short term, the central bank makes a sound again, and the larger the monetary policy toolbox also means that the easing expectation may be improved again. With the economic recovery and the improvement of liquidity, the trend of the index towards the good has not changed, and it is still a good time for bargain hunting allocation.
Yesterday, U.S. stocks fell sharply, but the Asia Pacific market performed strongly in early trading. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets ushered in a shock after opening slightly lower. The low growth enterprise market dragged down the Shenzhen composite index, while the blue chips continued to be stable, and the Shanghai index performed well. On the disk, the market continues to differentiate. After the Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) limit, many high-level stocks fell, while the financial and real estate industry chain continues to be stable and the market style conversion continues. We should pay attention to it in the short term. In terms of sectors, building materials led the rise, while media, household appliances, light industry manufacturing and building decoration led the rise, while power equipment led the decline, while non-ferrous metals, national defense and military industry and basic chemical industry fell.
From yesterday’s market trend, the pharmaceutical, Internet and new energy sectors fell in turn, while the heavyweight stock indexes such as engineering construction, electric power, banking, brewing and real estate rose in turn, and the hot spots continued to change. In fact, this performance continues today. The real estate industry chain continues to perform, while the lithium battery is low, and the overall performance of subject stocks is weak.
Generally speaking, the hot spot rotation superposition has a poor profit-making effect, and the market will have the mood of holding money and watching. However, the recent continuous net inflow of northward funds has boosted the confidence of the market. More importantly, under the main tone of steady growth, the overall market is supported, and the building materials and other sectors are more deterministic; With the RRR cut and interest rate cut, the expectation of monetary easing is strengthened again. With the opening of the easing cycle, the boost to the market is self-evident.
Therefore, the current policy bottom and capital bottom actually appear at this stage, which has played a certain support and boost to the market. Yesterday, the central bank made a voice again and proposed that the monetary policy toolbox should be opened wider. This also means that easing expectations may rise again, and there may still be the possibility of RRR reduction, which will boost the confidence of the market.
Back on the disk again, the blue chips continued to perform, leading the index to turn up red. While the growth stocks were weak as a whole, the fluctuation during the period was still relatively large. During this period, those who did not grasp the rhythm well may suffer. The overall stability and improvement of blue chips, on the one hand, comes from the underpinning of stable growth policy, on the other hand, it also comes from the continuous strengthening of monetary easing. So at present, we should pay attention to the phased style transformation.
On the whole, the overall support and boost of the market are relatively solid surrounded by the policy bottom and the capital bottom. In this tone, we continue to be optimistic about the spring market. In the recent consolidation process, we can still do a good job in bargain hunting and configuration to game the spring market. In terms of opportunities, it is suggested to explore from three angles: first, the “steady growth” or phased main line from the policy perspective, and the involved sectors can track building materials, construction machinery, food and beverage and household appliances; Secondly, it can also be superimposed with varieties with high attention to funds in the north, such as big finance and other value blue chips, in which it can focus on the securities sector with undervalued value and good performance; Third, continuously adjusted technologies and new energy are mainly varieties with relatively uncertain growth under the downward pressure of the economy.
