On Wednesday, the focus of A-Shares moved down again in the shock. The gem index fell 2.17% due to the decline of heavyweights such as new energy vehicles and biomedicine, indicating that the short-term selling pressure is still heavy. However, the individual stock market is still active, and more than 80 individual stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen are still up more than 9%, indicating that although the index is sinking, the bulls are still tenacious and long, bringing more structural opportunities to market participants.
the market trend is lower than expected
After Tuesday’s closing, market participants had more positive expectations for the trend of Wednesday’s A-share market, mainly because the information about continued liquidity easing was further confirmed. Some strategic analysts even believed that the current liquidity easing situation of A-shares was similar to that from 2014 to the first half of 2015. Therefore, market participants hold more optimistic expectations for the trend of A-share market on Wednesday and even in the future.
Unfortunately, on the one hand, it is because the peripheral market is jittery, and the U.S. stock market has a K-line shape of building the head in the sound of the Federal Reserve’s shrinking table, which affects the long willingness of some institutional funds. It is worried that the fluctuation of the peripheral market will affect the subsequent market interpretation of the A-share market, so it is timid in operation strategy; On the other hand, the valuation of track stocks is relatively high, and has entered a trend downward pattern. Therefore, every positive expectation will often become an excuse for some institutional funds to increase their holdings of track stocks.
This is reflected in the disk. CXO track stocks represented by Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) (603259) and new energy vehicle track stocks represented by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750) fell on Wednesday. As CXO track stocks and new energy vehicle track stocks are the core heavyweights of the gem index, the decline of such stocks has increased the adjustment pressure of the gem index, resulting in a pattern in which the trend of the A-share market is lower than that originally expected by market participants.
sector internal differentiation intensifies
However, this does not mean that the A-share market has entered a bear road. First, once the liquidity easing trend is formed, it will inevitably bring strong buoyancy. The past A-share market trend has repeatedly explained that the main A-share stock index is more a barometer reflecting liquidity fluctuations. After all, loose liquidity means that more social funds will inevitably look for investment opportunities, and equity assets with high liquidity and positive income (dividends) are their best investment direction. Therefore, each liquidity easing cycle corresponds to the strength of the A-share market. For example, the A-share market from 2014 to the first half of 2015 mentioned above; For another example, the easing cycle in the first half of 2020 basically corresponds to a wave of main rise in the A-share market. This is no exception. Therefore, if the five-year LPR interest rate on Thursday is reduced by 10 basis points, the trend of A-share market is expected to hit the bottom.
Second, the internal adjustment of share price structure of A-Shares is more violent. In the process of the sharp decline of track stocks, institutional funds are also looking for new structural opportunities. For example, recently, meta universe concept stocks and digital economy concept stocks have been active repeatedly, and have become the new focus of current mainstream funds; For another example, there is a strong differentiation trend within the pharmaceutical sector, including the decline of CXO track stocks and the rise of general medicine sector represented by Zhejiang Xianju Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002332) (002332), which shows that institutional funds also recognize that there will be no systemic risk in A-Shares at present. Therefore, calm down and look for investment targets with higher cost performance.
To sum up, the current A-share market is still a market with many structural opportunities, just as more than 80 stocks rose by more than 9% on Wednesday. If there is further easing information in early trading on Thursday, the A-share market is expected to have a trend of withdrawal of major indexes. In operation, actively track the position adjustment direction of funds of mainstream institutions and grasp future investment opportunities.
