In December, social finance and credit continued the trend of last month. On the one hand, local bonds continued to stabilize social finance, fiscal expenditure continued to increase, and the government and banks continued to make steady growth. On the other hand, demand is weak, the proportion of bills reached a historically high position in December, and residents and enterprises are weak in the medium and long term, reflecting that the demand for real estate and other investment continues to weaken, and the pulling effect of steady growth has not yet appeared. In December, the situation of social financing and credit was basically in line with market expectations. The effectiveness of steady growth has not been achieved, and the development will continue.
This year, the main impact of bank stocks will still focus on economic and real estate fundamentals, steady growth and real estate policies. (1) The data of weak economic demand gradually appear, and the effectiveness of stabilizing growth and real estate may continue to improve. At this stage, the negative expectations of the market for the economy and real estate gradually tend to be sufficient, and the expectations for the subsequent steady growth, real estate stability and results are pessimistic. The probability of low expectation is low, and the possibility of catalyzing the overweight of stable growth and stable real estate policies is high. (2) It is possible that further easing or interest rate cutting operations have positive significance for the economy and real estate, and are positive rather than the opposite for bank investment as a whole. (3) Combined with the performance of the historical bank index in January, the probability of excess market in January is high. At this stage, banks are more cost-effective than other stable growth varieties.
In terms of individual stocks, it is recommended to pay attention to Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) and other banks whose performance continues to grow rapidly and may publish express reports. Continuous recommendation of core targets: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) .
The proportion of bills has reached a high level, and the demand is still weak.
In December, RMB loans increased by 1.13 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 123.4 billion. In terms of structure, bills accounted for 36% in December, which was at a high position in history. Enterprises decreased by 105.4 billion in the short term, which was better than that in the same period last year; The medium and long-term growth of enterprises is 339.3 billion and the medium and long-term growth of residents is 355.8 billion, which is weak year-on-year. The medium and long-term growth of residents is due to the pressure of real estate sales. The medium and long-term growth of enterprises may also reflect the pressure on the investment side, which is consistent with the downward trend of bill interest rate in the early stage. The steady growth has been implemented at the bank level, the credit has increased under the requirements of steady growth, but the demand for specific investment and projects is still insufficient, Steady growth may still exert force.
Local debt lending led to the sustained stabilization and recovery of the growth rate of social finance
In December, social finance grew by 10.3% year-on-year, continuing the stabilization trend, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over November. In December, social finance increased by 2.37 trillion, an increase of 720.6 billion year-on-year. The main reasons for the continued stabilization of the growth rate of Social Finance: on the one hand, the amount of local debt increased by 1.17 trillion, an increase of 459.2 billion year-on-year. On the other hand, in December 2020, due to the impact of off balance sheet pressure drop, permanent coal, etc., off balance sheet trust loans, entrusted loans and undiscounted acceptance bills decreased significantly, and corporate bonds were issued less, forming a low base year-on-year in December, resulting in a sharp decline off balance sheet in December 2021, which still formed a positive contribution year-on-year. In December, trust loans, entrusted loans and undiscounted bills decreased by 458 billion, 41.6 billion and 141.8 billion respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 4 billion, 14.3 billion and 79.8 billion, and enterprise loans increased by 222.5 billion, an increase of 178.9 billion.
Fiscal expenditure continued to increase
In December, RMB deposits increased by 1.16 trillion, an increase of 1.37 trillion year-on-year. Except for Financial deposits, other deposits increased year-on-year. In December, fiscal deposits decreased by 1030.2 billion, an increase of 76.2 billion year-on-year, and fiscal investment continued to maintain a large intensity. Resident deposits and enterprise deposits increased by 1.89 trillion and 1.37 trillion respectively, an increase of 215.7 billion and 271.1 billion year-on-year, non bank deposits decreased by 384.3 billion, a decrease of 175.6 billion year-on-year, and other major organ group deposits are expected to decrease by 681.7 billion, a decrease of 783.1 billion year-on-year. In December, M1 / m2 increased by 3.5% and 9% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over the previous month.
Risk warning: large-scale outbreak of real estate default risk; The economy fell sharply, exceeding expectations.
