The increase in the proportion of wind power and photovoltaic brought by “double carbon” will bring great challenges to the transformation of power grid. The proportion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in China is bound to increase in the future, but the output of photovoltaic power is mainly at noon. The random instability of wind power output, the dependence of scenery on weather and the vulnerability to disasters will have an impact on the safe and stable operation of the power grid after the proportion is greatly increased; After the proportion of scenery is increased, equal energy storage and regulation facilities have become a rigid demand.
After the introduction of energy storage for wind and solar energy, the incentive to energy storage equipment has become the core contradiction. The power user and the power grid are unwilling to bear the additional cost of energy storage, and how to deal with the power generator and the energy storage operator and how to control the power grid are also difficult problems.
Stone from another mountain – introduce floating electricity price + smart grid overseas to solve the consumption of new energy. Europe / Australia / the United States and other regions developed new energy earlier, and the proportion of scenery has reached 100% in some time periods. The answer to the consumption solution is floating real-time electricity price + smart grid allocation. In the period with high proportion of wind and solar energy, due to the characteristics of marginal cost of wind and solar 0 power generation, the electricity price is reduced by bidding, while the electricity price rises in the period with low wind and solar output, and the price difference of energy storage is earned in different periods of time. The contradiction between energy storage incentive and wind and solar instability is solved by market means.
Smart grid transformation is the premise of introducing floating price: smart grid needs to flexibly predict and monitor the load of power generation end and power consumption end, lead the supply demand and quotation of floating price, and respond to emergencies and abnormalities in time, which means that power grid needs: 1) improve the intelligence of terminal perception and implementation, Collect more information for the terminal and let the terminal automatically perform certain actions; 2) The transmission, distribution and transformation of power grid should have higher intelligence and flexibility; 3) The power grid needs to establish the information system required by the electricity price exchange.
During the construction of overseas smart grid, a number of companies benefited and Rose: We studied the construction process of smart grid in the United States. The first is the smart meter AMI, then the smart distribution network industry began to increase, and the last benefit is the terminal household energy management. The transformation of smart grid in the whole United States exceeded 200 billion yuan.
Accordingly, Itron, an overseas smart meter, benefited from the continuous high growth of revenue in the smart meter replacement cycle from 2007 to 13, and the stock price walked out of the excess return; Siemens and Ge benefited from the long-term stable growth of smart grid transformation, while enphase, a home power management and home electricity price trading software supplier, began to increase its performance after 18 years. At the same time, the share price rose more than 30 times, and the rhythm also matched the rhythm of smart grid transformation.
There are more potential opportunities for the transformation of China’s smart grid: the State Grid has invited tenders for AMI meters meeting the ir46 standard since 2021 to support the consumption of new energy and replace more than 440 million AMR meters purchased in the past five years. Considering that the value of AMI meters has increased by 60% ~ 80% relative to AMR, it is expected that the space of smart meter market will exceed 100 billion; Smart transformer / distribution / transmission is expected to have high growth space, but it is difficult to estimate the potential space without a single popular single product because it involves many subdivided fields; Household energy consumption management is a market with great opportunities in China in the long term. In the future, if hundreds of millions of households purchase the software and hardware of household energy consumption management, the market space will exceed 100 billion; China’s electricity consumption is about 3 trillion yuan / year, and only 10% of it is connected to real-time dynamic electricity price trading, which will become the world’s largest electricity trading market with great elasticity in the long run.
Smart grid investment depends on smart meter replacement in the short term and smart grid, household energy consumption management and power transaction related targets in the long term: in the short term, the first step of smart grid transformation is the improvement of terminal perception intelligence, the popularization of ir46 standard meters, considering the decentralized bidding of enterprises such as state grid, Willfar Information Technology Co.Ltd(688100) and other industry leaders are expected to benefit. The transformation of secondary equipment and intelligent upgrading of State Grid will bring flexibility to Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) ; In the long run, the intelligent transformation of the user’s power sales side and the dynamic electricity price transaction are expected to bring new changes to Longshine Technology Group Co.Ltd(300682) and other enterprises with a certain number of user entrances and transaction settlement interfaces with the State Grid; In the future, the company within the State Grid system may build and operate its information settlement platform and Ygsoft Inc(002063) actively participate in the pilot study of the project.
From the perspective of time point and certainty, although the overseas dynamic electricity price consumption new energy system has the advantages of high consumption rate, it also shows its vulnerability under the impact of extreme weather and has a great impact on people’s livelihood. Therefore, it is expected that China’s electricity price reform and smart grid construction will take more stable steps to promote safer schemes, Therefore, the target benefit time point related to household end and electricity price may be later and the uncertainty is higher.
Risk tip: electricity price reform is a major reform involving the national economy and the people’s livelihood, and the promotion speed may not be as fast as expected; The popularization progress of power informatization is less than expected.
