Events
In December, new loans increased by 1.1 trillion yuan, lower than the consensus market expectation of 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 123.4 billion yuan. The loan stock increased by 11.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points month on month. In December, social finance increased by 2.4 trillion yuan, 2.6 trillion yuan lower than the consensus expectation of the market, an increase of 720.6 billion yuan year-on-year. The stock of social finance increased by 10.3% year-on-year and 0.2 percentage points month on month.
Commentary
Q1: how do you view the financial data in December?
The new loans in December were weak, mainly due to: 1) the stock of corporate projects was small at the end of the year, and the medium and long-term corporate loans decreased by 210.7 billion yuan year-on-year; Note interest rates fell sharply in December, which also shows the characteristics of note impulse. 2) The epidemic affected consumption, and residents' short-term loans decreased by 98.5 billion yuan year-on-year; 3) Mortgage investment and lending slowed slightly, and residents' medium and long-term loans decreased by 83.4 billion yuan year-on-year. The new credit is slightly lower than the market expectation, but it does not hinder the general trend of bond issuance to promote the marginal growth of social finance.
Q2: can the loan achieve a "good start" at the beginning of the year?
Bank loans have obvious seasonality, accounting for about 40% in the first quarter and only about 15% in the fourth quarter. Loan projects tend to be launched at the beginning of the new year rather than at the end of the year. Therefore, the weak loan launch in December does not mean that the "good start" at the beginning of the year will be "stalled". Structurally, since September 2020, the lending of large banks has been relatively stable, while the growth rate of loans of small and medium-sized banks has declined. We expect that the above structural characteristics will continue. On the whole, we expect that the loan in January can still achieve a "good start" of 3-4 trillion yuan.
Q3: what about the loan growth rate in 2022?
We believe that green, inclusive small and micro enterprises and infrastructure loans are an important direction of credit lending this year. 1.
We estimate that these three types of loans will contribute about 17 trillion yuan of new loans next year, accounting for more than 70% of the new loans next year. On the whole, the credit growth rate will remain stable this year.
Q4: have the financing conditions of real estate loans been improved?
Medium and long-term loans to residents increased year-on-year for two consecutive months, showing that mortgage investment may slow down slightly, but it has improved compared with last September. The data of the shell Research Institute also showed that the lending cycle of housing loans was shortened and the interest rate decreased for two consecutive months in December. The investment of development loans is still restricted by the bank's risk appetite.
Q5: can bank stocks continue the road of "turning the tide and bringing prosperity"?
Although there may be many fluctuations on the road of "turning the tide into a better one", considering the large space for valuation and position repair, we continue to be optimistic about the opportunities of Chinese banks throughout the year. Reiterate the recommendation of China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) A / h, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) - A / h with stable asset quality and benefiting from wealth management opportunities and financial technology empowerment, as well as Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) with deviation from fundamentals and valuation.
Risk
Economic growth declined; Real estate industry risk.
