Under the influence and stimulation of the sharp decline of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes in overseas markets, the accelerated risk release of "three highs" Mao stock limit, the accelerated risk release of pharmaceutical stocks stimulated by centralized purchase, the large-scale net inflow of funds in the North exceeding 3.8 billion yuan, the rise and fall of covid-19 drug concept, and the continuation of the weak trend of more than half of the industry segmentation index, the continued shock and decline, The second bottom adjustment of the retraction technology, the negative line, the volatility or stepping back on the neck line, or completing the gap replenishment last week, or the inertial bottom tomorrow, but this position is the stage of building a "trap", and should not be too panic and pessimistic.
From the perspective of the Shanghai stock index, the negative line of the adjustment of the obvious contraction is used for the technical secondary bottom. The volatility does not break the neck line, the upward trend line and the previous low point. Combined with the shortening of the green column of MACD index, it is clear that this benign fluctuation is a low absorption opportunity; The growth enterprise market index contracted to the bottom for the second time, and took the initiative to make up the gap at 3056 points last week, or built a "empty trap" with inertia to test the low point. However, this C-wave killing risk is released, which is a "headwind" investment opportunity for preferred companies; Combined with the operation of the low point before the second bottom of Shenzhen Composite Index and multiple bottom strong support, and the negative line of Kechuang 50 Index shrinkage adjustment and the strong support of short-term moving average, it is clear that the index adjustment caused by local falling sectors will not reverse the market direction and pattern of "structural Bull" in the secondary market.
At the close of the market, covid-19 drug concept, cloud games, tourism, building materials, etc concept, state-owned cloud, intellectual property, IP realization, byte beat, construction machinery, Internet, data center, water conservancy construction, meta universe concept and other sectors led the rise, with large-scale net capital inflow and an average volatility of more than 1.35%, which constituted a strong positive leading and driving force for the index. Combined with the long short energy ratio, 78 stocks rose by more than 9%, 189 stocks rose by more than 5%, 475 stocks rose by more than 3%, 22 stocks fell by more than 9%, 137 stocks fell by more than 5%, and 468 stocks fell by more than 3%. The fierce long short game, which is expected to have a significant reduction in short power compared with yesterday, is accompanied by the obvious shrinkage of trading volume, indicating the second bottom of the weakening selling pressure, With the rise of "new economy + new growth" and other sectors, it is expected to return to the strong structure and deduce the "spring agitation" market of maintaining stability.
In terms of news, the State Council issued the development plan of modern comprehensive transportation system in the 14th five year plan, promoted the digital transformation and upgrading of existing facilities, and strengthened the synchronous planning and construction of new facilities and perception networks; Steadily promote the coverage of 5g and other network communication facilities, and improve the coverage, real-time and reliability of information transmission in the field of transportation; Carry out 5g based application scenarios and industrial ecology pilot demonstration in the field of intelligent transportation, promote the deployment and application of vehicle networking, and support the construction of an integrated and collaborative intelligent management system of "vehicle road traffic management"; Improve the supervision service function of the comprehensive transportation information platform, and promote the construction of automatic driving supervision platform in qualified areas; Build a global shipping service network based on blockchain technology and optimize the integration of civil aviation data information platform; Improve the capacity integration capability of logistics information platform, strengthen smart cloud supply chain management and smart logistics big data application, and accurately match supply demand; Improve the layout of urban and rural public charging and replacement networks, actively build intercity charging networks and supporting facilities for fast charging stations in expressway service areas, and realize that the coverage rate of fast charging stations in expressway service areas in national ecological civilization test area and key areas for air pollution prevention and control is not less than 80% and 60% in other areas; Carry out the construction of LNG filling stations on the Yangtze River trunk line, Beijing Hangzhou canal and Xijiang shipping trunk line, improve the layout of crude oil and finished oil pipeline network, and promote the treatment of hidden dangers of old pipelines in Northeast, northwest and southwest regions.
The central bank stressed that China's macro leverage ratio was 272.5% in 2021, 7.7 percentage points lower than that at the end of 2020. The leverage ratio decreased for five consecutive quarters, creating space for the future financial system to increase support for small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development; The people's Bank of China cut the reserve requirement by 0.5 percentage points in July and December respectively, releasing 2.2 trillion yuan of long-term funds, which optimized the capital structure of financial institutions and reflected the ability of finance to serve the real economy; According to the economic law, the micro market mechanism is also more effective. It is clear that sustained unilateral appreciation or sustained unilateral depreciation is impossible in China; The epidemic prevention and control is relatively good, which ensures that the economic growth toughness is relatively sufficient. It is expected that this year's economic growth will be faster than that of major developed economies; The monetary policy toolbox should be expanded to keep the total amount stable and avoid credit collapse; Make accurate efforts, take the initiative, actively find projects, make effective addition and optimize the economic structure according to the requirements of the new development concept; Timely respond to the general concerns of the market, adhere to the positioning of "houses are for living, not for speculation", fully implement the long-term mechanism of real estate, maintain the continuity, consistency and stability of real estate financial policies, increase financial support for Housing leasing, and promote the good cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
In combination with the Ministry of industry and information technology's in-depth implementation of the "carbon peak and carbon neutrality", the implementation of important deployment such as building a manufacturing power and promoting the energy revolution, the continuous strengthening of industrial top-level design, standardized management and industrial intelligence upgrading, the continuous optimization of industrial development environment, the deepening of industrial international cooperation and other combination policies, it was clear that local "three high" value Mao stocks and hot money concept stocks led the decline, Or make it difficult for the index to launch a strong attack in the short term, but it will not reverse and change the in-depth promotion of the "structural bull" market and the interpretation of the "cross year red envelope" market.
The author believes that Henan has deliberated and passed several opinions on accelerating the construction of a strong province with advanced manufacturing industry, the implementation plan on Comprehensively Strengthening and improving school physical education in the new era, and the implementation plan on Comprehensively Strengthening and improving school aesthetic education in the new era, so as to strengthen the main direction of high-quality development of manufacturing industry, focus on supplementing, extending and strengthening the chain, Deepen the construction of "ten thousand people help ten thousand enterprises" and "three one batch" projects; Shaanxi vigorously develops renewable energy such as photovoltaic, wind energy and biomass, promotes the implementation of water storage and energy pumping power stations and hydrogen energy demonstration projects, and increases the consumption capacity of new energy; The 14th five year plan for the development of Guangxi new energy automobile industry promotes the basic completion of the industrial chain system, the local matching rate of parts and components reaches more than 70%, and a whole industrial chain production system from parts to complete vehicles has been preliminarily formed; And Shanghai printed and distributed several policies to promote the high-quality development of Shanghai's integrated circuit industry and software industry in the new era, increased support for the verification and application of independent, safe and controllable equipment and materials, and gave certain R & D subsidies to those whose integrated circuit production lines and pilot test lines provide verification services for the first set of equipment and the first batch of new materials of integrated circuits in Shanghai, Take supporting the application and verification of independent, safe and controllable equipment and materials as the basic condition for the city's new integrated circuit production line project to obtain government funding support; The 14th five year plan for the development of digital cultural and creative industries in Chengdu will create a 100 billion yuan digital cultural and creative industry cluster and other favorable regional economic policies, which proves that industries and listed enterprises in the field of "new economy" will be the focus of investment in 2022. In view of this, the trend is optimistic about the market opportunities of semiconductors, components, lithography machines, MCU chips, new materials, data centers, industrial motherboards, 5g, artificial intelligence, Internet of things, quantum technology, aviation, metauniverse, communication equipment, new energy vehicles, it equipment, UHV, industrial Internet and other sectors that benefit from the core. It is recommended that investors actively bargain hunting layout, The main rising market in the middle of the game. (Note: the above information is only for reference and not for specific operation suggestions. There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious.)
Author: Zhang Cuixia, chief investment adviser of Jufeng investment
Attachment: daily analysis diagram of different indexes
(daily analysis diagram of Shanghai stock index 2022-1-19)
(daily analysis diagram of gem index 2022-1-19)
