Jin Xiandong, director of the Policy Research Office of the national development and Reform Commission, said that the supply of chemical fertilizer for spring ploughing this year is guaranteed, but considering the difficulty of further sharp decline in production costs, it is expected that the price of chemical fertilizer for spring ploughing may still operate at a high level. In the next step, the national development and Reform Commission will, in accordance with the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, give full play to the role of the working mechanism of ensuring the supply and price of chemical fertilizer, strengthen departmental cooperation and consultation, strengthen industrial operation monitoring, ensure the supply of chemical fertilizer production factors such as coal, electricity, natural gas and sulfur, and further give play to the positive role of import and export regulation and reserve throughput in ensuring the supply and price stability of chemical fertilizer market, At the same time, we will vigorously promote the reduction and efficiency of chemical fertilizer, guide farmers to use fertilizer scientifically, take multiple measures at the same time, do a good job in ensuring the supply and price of chemical fertilizer this winter and next spring, fully protect farmers’ enthusiasm for growing grain, and effectively consolidate the foundation for a good harvest of summer grain.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) pointed out that the supply side reform and limited new production capacity have greatly improved China’s past surplus supply of chemical fertilizer, and the profit of chemical fertilizer products has shown a central upward trend. In recent years, China has carried out supply side reform for industries with excess capacity, and gradually cleared the excess capacity in the industry through environmental protection rectification and returning to the park. Through the two-way control of supply and demand, the capacity utilization rate in the industry has rebounded after reaching the bottom, and the industry pattern has been gradually improved. At the same time, the new capacity of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer in China is relatively limited. As a coal chemical product, nitrogen fertilizer is subject to two-way constraints of energy consumption and carbon emission, and the new capacity is regulated; Ammonium phosphate products are located in the national list of restricted production capacity. According to the 14th five year plan, the new production capacity will also be strictly limited. The superimposed industry will continue to eliminate the expanded production capacity, and the industry pattern is expected to be continuously optimized.
The agency believes that this winter’s urea supply is better than usual, but it is relatively orderly, and the price is expected to run within the range. It is expected that the start-up of urea in winter will be relatively stable, and it is difficult for urea to form the supply and demand basis for sharply raising the price in previous years, but the demand support and orderly start-up will support the maintenance of the range operation of urea price. It is still optimistic about the improvement and cyclical weakening of urea profit center for a long time. It is suggested to pay attention to coal urea production enterprises Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) and gas urea production enterprises Sichuan Meifeng Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000731) . In addition, the long-term pattern of ammonium phosphate is improving, and the short-term price is expected to operate relatively smoothly. In the long run, the ammonium phosphate industry continues to clear the backward production capacity at the supply end and optimize the industry pattern. At the same time, under the situation of relatively stable agricultural demand in the downstream, the demand for new energy positive materials will provide space for further improvement of the industry pattern. It is expected that phosphorus chemical products and upstream phosphorus ores will operate better in the long run, It is suggested to pay attention to phosphorus chemical enterprises such as Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Shanghai Zhongyida Co.Ltd(600610) .
