Today (January 19), the three major A-share indexes opened low across the board. At the beginning of the session, the stock indexes differentiated. The Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index showed a pulse downward, once sideways, and also fell rapidly. However, the Shanghai index showed signs of turning red in the session. Near noon, the Shanghai index fell with the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index. From the disk point of view, bank stocks support a shares, the explosion of the subject matter of the infrastructure industry chain, the outstanding performance of digital currency, Yuan universe and other sectors, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) said that the market has great differences between long and short, the annual line of the Shanghai index may still be contested, and the main tone of "shock stabilization" as a whole remains unchanged. At the operational level, it is recommended to see more and move less, and pay attention to the low absorption opportunities of medium linear growth varieties.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let's see what themes are available for reference.
[Topic 1] digital currency
Guoyuan Securities Company Limited(000728) pointed out that the digital economy development plan of the 14th five year plan was issued, and the digital infrastructure is expected to exceed expectations. According to the development plan, it is expected that by 2025, China's digital economy will move towards a comprehensive expansion period, and the added value of core industries of digital economy will account for 10% of GDP. The plan defines the main indicators of digital economy development: by 2025, the number of IPv6 active users will reach 800 million; The number of Gigabit broadband users has reached 60 million; The scale of software and information technology services reached 14 trillion yuan; The application penetration rate of industrial Internet platform has reached 45%; The national online retail sales reached 17 trillion yuan; The scale of e-commerce transactions reached 46 trillion yuan; The number of real name users of online government services has reached 800 million.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) said that after the promotion of the Winter Olympic Games, the digital RMB will be further familiar to the market, and its industrial chain enterprises and traditional banking industry will benefit from it. On the one hand, digital RMB hardware equipment manufacturers will benefit from the market opportunities brought by digital RMB Hard Wallet, while software developers will benefit from the business growth brought by the upgrading of banking systems outside China. On the other hand, the cross-border application of digital RMB will benefit the traditional banking business through "spillover effect", with retail payment, foreign currency exchange and cross-border remittance bearing the brunt.
Open source securities mentioned that on January 4, the digital RMB (pilot version) app was officially launched, and 49 sub wallets were launched, involving shopping, travel, life, tourism and five other categories. According to the white paper on research and development progress of China's digital RMB, digital RMB adopts centralized management and two-tier operation, the central bank is responsible for issuance and life cycle management, and commercial banks and other institutions are responsible for exchange and circulation services. At present, the main operators include nine banks, including China, agriculture, industry, construction, transportation, postal savings, China Merchants, online merchants and Weizhong. Other small and medium-sized banks and institutions will also provide digital RMB services. Therefore, large state-owned banks, joint-stock banks and small and medium-sized banks will generate relevant system development, testing, operation and maintenance requirements, and bank it, security encryption, hardware equipment and other related companies are expected to benefit. []
[Theme 2] infrastructure
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that recently, the central government mentioned the new special debt, focusing on water conservancy, transportation, municipal infrastructure construction, affordable housing projects and other fields. The Ministry of water resources mentioned the implementation of major projects of the national water network. We expect that the construction of underground pipe network and sponge city will bring sustainable increment during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The completion end of the real estate remained resilient, but the new construction and sales remained weak. In terms of real estate, the easing signal has been gradually released, and the bottom of the policy has been found. We expect that the financing end of subsequent real estate enterprises and consumers is expected to be slightly relaxed. In addition, accelerating the construction of affordable rental housing during the 14th Five Year Plan period will bring some increment. Previously, the valuation of the decoration building materials sector has been in the lower position of the historical center due to the slowdown in demand, the rise of raw materials and cash flow pressure. Under the relaxed expectation of the margin of real estate, the decline of the high cost of raw materials, the gradual release of bad debt provision and cash flow risk expectation, the overall sector is expected to usher in performance and valuation repair.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) believes that the special bonds in 2021 will be issued in the second half of the year, and a large amount of carry over funds are expected to be issued in 2022. In addition, the Ministry of finance has issued an advance approval of $1.46 trillion for the new special debts in 2022, focusing on the construction of transportation infrastructure. The special funds issued in the second half of 2021 and the budget funds in 2022 are expected to drive the infrastructure investment in 2022, and the infrastructure, transportation and other related fields may benefit. It is recommended that China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) .
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that the annual infrastructure growth rate in 2022 may show a trend of high before and low after. It is expected that the growth rate of new construction will remain low in the medium and long term. It is judged that the slowdown of completion growth rate is a phased disturbance, and the growth rate of completion end will continue to pick up in the first half of 2022. Three promising directions are recommended: 1) the direction of construction central enterprises; 2) New energy field of electric power; 3) Field of assembly and equipment leasing. []
[Topic 3] bank
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) mentioned that bank stocks rebounded significantly and the market opened in the first quarter. Looking forward to 2022, wide credit is the boundary of market consensus. It is difficult to determine the subject and scale of wide credit outside the boundary. However, from the perspective of structure, in the incremental credit structure since 2019, the proportion of individual non housing loans has gradually increased, which is the only reliable logic from top to bottom. Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) are recommended.
In addition, Wanlian Securities said that looking forward to the first quarter, the market pessimistic expectations will be repaired, superimposed with strong performance certainty, and the whole sector is expected to remain strong. We upgraded the sector to be stronger than the general trend. In the medium and long term, the internal differentiation of the banking sector will continue. It is suggested to pay attention to the banks with the continuous increase of the proportion of intermediate business income and the banks with the continuous improvement of fundamentals.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that 1q bank sector has a good trend in history, and the relative return of bank stocks in January may be better. From the performance of the banking sector in recent five years, in addition to the abnormal impact of the epidemic in 2020, the growth of the banking sector in 2017-2019 and the first quarter / January of 2021 were 4.0% / 4.5%, - 2.1% / 12.5%, 4.0% / 8.2% and 11.9% / 7.5% respectively. Among them, in January, the banking sector ranked among the top five sectors, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.1, 6.4, 1.9 and 2.8pct respectively, with better relative earnings performance.
According to the investment suggestions, the institution further analyzed: ① for the high-quality listed banks that were obviously impacted by the real estate market in the early stage, the bottom shape after stock price adjustment is more obvious and has better flexibility; ② Continue to recommend high-quality listed banks in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other regions. These banks benefit from the advantages of regional economic environment and are more certain to continue the "volume increase and price stability" of credit supply.
In addition, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that the reduction of the policy interest rate in January reflects the policy intention of the central bank to grasp the monetary policy window at the beginning of the year to promote steady growth, credit and expectation. At present, China's economic operation is in the rebalancing stage of vivid weakening within macro policy overweight hedging.
For bank investment, the interest rate reduction operation is expected to affect the interest margin expectation in the short term and benefit the consolidation of asset quality in the medium term. It is suggested to lengthen the time dimension to examine the allocation value of the sector.
[theme 4] meta universe
Hualong Securities pointed out that the meta universe is known as the ultimate form of the next generation Internet. The meta universe industrial chain extends outward from the underlying infrastructure to the user experience level. It can be divided into seven levels, including infrastructure, human-computer interaction, decentralization, spatial computing, creator economy, discovery, experience and so on.
At present, the meta universe belongs to the concept introduction period, and the substantive breakthrough of its application still needs a lot of technical accumulation, with great uncertainty. From the perspective of industrial chain, we can pay attention to three main lines: 5g, hardware equipment AR / VR and cloud computing.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that digital assets are deeply rooted in the hearts of the people and are one of the most important marginal and investment opportunities in this round of meta universe development. Since 2020, the dau of coinbase, a digital currency trading platform, has achieved rapid growth, with a peak of nearly 10 million in 2021. At the same time, under the background of the epidemic, loose monetary policy was implemented overseas, which promoted the sharp rise in the price of digital money represented by bitcoin. The listing of roblox in U.S. stocks and NVIDIA's marketing and product promotion in virtual human make secondary market investors pay attention to the investment opportunities of metauniverse, especially the right confirmation and trading of digital assets based on blockchain technology.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) mentioned that they are optimistic about the development opportunities brought by the development of metauniverse gradually becoming a market consensus and giants increasing investment in the ecological construction of metauniverse. At present, the layout of A-share media companies is mainly concentrated in the application layer, such as virtual platform and immersive content, digital assets, digital identity and offline experience. Some companies also have layout in the technical layer, such as hardware entrance and 3D technology. []
