Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Huaxin Securities: infrastructure growth is expected to face an inflection point in the first quarter. The five main investment lines jointly interpret the big infrastructure market
The inflection point of infrastructure growth has arrived, and the situation of Daji Construction Bank can be expected. Under the guidance of the 14th five year plan, the new infrastructure was accelerated. It is estimated that the investment scale of new infrastructure in 2022 will be 2002.7 billion yuan, with an increase of 452.4 billion yuan, with a growth rate of nearly 30%. We resumed the market trend of previous financial forces. With the current round of financial support, the growth rate of infrastructure is expected to face an inflection point in the first quarter, and the infrastructure market will usher in a small climax. The current round of infrastructure market will start with valuation repair and profit as support. Among them, the development of new infrastructure has entered an accelerated period and is more flexible as a whole.
Five investment mainlines jointly deduce the market of large infrastructure. (1) In the field of transportation and water conservancy, the policy design list of "transportation power" and "national water network" is clear. Looking back on the past market, the financial force drives the steady growth of infrastructure construction and generates excess returns. Daji Construction Bank first has valuation and repair, and then has performance support. In terms of industries, architectural decoration and construction machinery perform better.
(2) transformation and construction direction of pipe network: the transformation and construction of pipe network is still a short board of sewage treatment. At present, there is a gap of about 400000 km of sewage pipeline. Combined with the average cost of 3 million for 1 km of sewage pipeline, there is a gap of about 1.2 trillion yuan in sewage pipe network alone, which is expected to bring excellent investment value to the environmental protection industry chain.
(3) energy sector represented by photovoltaic and wind power: we calculate that the investment in wind power and photovoltaic in 2022 will be 396 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.6%. With the accelerated construction of photovoltaic wind power field, the performance is expected to rise.
(4) new energy infrastructure direction with ultra-high voltage, energy storage and intelligent charging pile as the core: policy support is superimposed, the issuance of energy bonds is accelerated, and the prospect of new energy infrastructure is promising. The scale of UHV industrial chain is expected to increase steadily, and the energy storage related fields represented by new energy storage may develop rapidly.
(5) new intelligent infrastructure with 5g, big data center, industrial Internet and artificial intelligence as the core: the growth rate of data center and industrial Internet slowed down slightly and entered the stage of steady improvement; 5g base stations and artificial intelligence are still growing rapidly. []
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : under the expected marginal improvement of real estate! When brand building materials gradually enter the layout, the leading certainty is high
The bad credit of the real estate chain has been exhausted, and the price rise has gradually fallen to the ground / the price of raw materials has fallen. Under the expected marginal improvement of the real estate, brand building materials have gradually entered the layout time point, and the leading certainty is high. It is recommended to focus on Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) , Wangli Security & Surveillance Product Co.Ltd(605268) . It is recommended to pay attention to Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) China Liansu.
For the cement industry, the marginal relaxation at the real estate financing end may lead to the improvement of market expectations. With the addition of the recent acceleration of special bond issuance, the cement demand is expected to be supported; In addition, the role of policy regulation of coal price has been fully demonstrated. When the cement price center is expected to remain high, the cost pressure of enterprises is expected to ease month on month. We continue to be optimistic about the valuation and repair opportunities of the cement sector, focusing on Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , and it is suggested to focus on Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) and China building materials.
In addition, we also recommend the concrete water reducing agent tap Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) benefiting from infrastructure development. For the glass industry, under the "guaranteed delivery" of real estate, the toughness of glass demand is expected to be maintained. On the supply side, considering that the current industrial capacity utilization is at a high level, the subsequent new capacity is limited, and the cold repair of the elderly production line may lead to supply contraction; At present, the price and cost of glass are close. Under the high cost of raw materials / energy, manufacturers are willing to support the price, and the glass price is expected to continue to pick up. Focus on the medium and long-term growth brought by various types of glass (photovoltaic, electronic, pharmaceutical glass, etc.); Focus on Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) and pay attention to Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Xinyi Glass, Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) . []
Guosheng Securities: resume the historical quotation ! in the initial stage of policy adjustment the excess return of the construction sector is obvious
The national development and Reform Commission has made great efforts to accelerate the implementation of major projects, and the approval of projects and other links are expected to be accelerated. On January 18, the national development and Reform Commission said at a press conference: "appropriately carry out infrastructure investment in advance, accelerate the promotion of 102 major engineering projects in the 14th five year plan, implement the local government special bonds issued in the fourth quarter of last year to specific projects as soon as possible, pay close attention to the issued quota, and strive to form more practical workload in the first quarter." The national development and Reform Commission is in charge of project approval and communication and coordination among multiple departments. It is expected that relevant links of follow-up projects are expected to be accelerated and implemented as soon as possible, forming a physical quantity.
In terms of investment suggestions, in the historical market of resumption, the excess return of the construction sector is obvious in the initial stage of policy adjustment and improvement of the monetary and credit environment (such as Q4 in 2008, Q4 in 2014, the second half of 2018, etc.). At present, with the increasing downward pressure on the economy, the strengthening of the policy of stable growth in infrastructure and the improvement of the industry's financial environment, the leader of high-quality construction is expected to meet the driving force of valuation improvement. Blue chips for undervalued buildings are mainly recommended: China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) and China Design Group Co.Ltd(603018) , Anhui Transport Consulting & Design Institute Co.Ltd(603357) , Jsti Group(300284) .
In addition, the direction of stable growth and high prosperity elasticity is mainly recommended: 1) affordable housing: focus on China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , Shanghai Construction Group Co.Ltd(600170) , Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) ; 2) Steel structure: key recommendations Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) ; 3) New power system: focus on recommending and paying attention to Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) leaders of central enterprises in power infrastructure, Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) leaders of private distribution network EPCO, and Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) experts in enterprise energy efficiency control. []
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : the growth rate at the completion end in the first half of 2022 will continue to pick up ! look in three directions
In 2022, the annual growth rate of infrastructure construction may show a trend of high before and low after. It is expected that the growth rate of new construction will remain low in the medium and long term. It is judged that the slowdown of completion growth rate is a phased disturbance, and the growth rate of completion end will continue to pick up in the first half of 2022. Around the three directions we are optimistic about, we recommend: 1) the direction of central construction enterprises, such as China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) . 2) In the field of new energy for electric power, it is recommended Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) and China's energy construction.
3) In the field of assembly and equipment leasing, Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) is recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) , Hongxin construction, Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) . Other recommendations: Sinoma International Engineering Co.Ltd(600970) , attention: China Building Material Test & Certification Group Co.Ltd(603060) . []
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : in the past, the cement index was obviously restless in spring
With the Spring Festival approaching, the demand is basically over, and the price may have been basically adjusted in place. In the past, there was an obvious restless market in the cement index in spring. We believe that the combination of the steady growth policy and the high starting point of prices in early 2022 provides favorable support for this round of restlessness. On January 17, the central bank suddenly announced an interest rate cut to further catalyze the market; In the medium and long term, the industry supply pattern is expected to be continuously optimized under the objectives of "double control" and "double carbon". []
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) : focus on infrastructure construction and make efforts in advance! Key recommended construction central enterprises
The central economic work conference set the macroeconomic policy of 2022 as stable and effective, implemented an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and adhered to the principle of "no speculation in housing". Under this framework, the "three red lines" and the long-term policy of strengthening fund management will not be relaxed, but local policies have begun to be marginal relaxed in order to support the real estate market from the demand side, "Guaranteed housing" and affordable housing construction will underpin the supply side market. It is expected that the real estate market will develop steadily in 2022, which is expected to drive the valuation and repair of the construction sector. As the starting point of steady growth, infrastructure construction is expected to form physical workload in early 2022. We continue to give the industry a "recommended" rating.
The advance development of infrastructure is expected to drive the demand of the construction sector. In 2021, the special debt will be issued in the second half of the year. It is expected that a large amount of carry over funds will be issued in 2022. In addition, the Ministry of finance has issued a new special debt of 1.46 trillion in advance in 2022, focusing on the construction of transportation infrastructure. The special funds issued in the second half of 2021 and the budget funds in 2022 are expected to drive the infrastructure investment in 2022, and the infrastructure, transportation and other related fields may benefit. It is recommended that China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) .
The national carbon emission trading market has started trading, and the power industry has become the first batch of participants. The cement industry is one of the industries with large carbon emissions. Subsequently, it will be incorporated into the national carbon emission trading market with steel and other industries. The consumption reduction, low-carbon and carbon capture technology of professional engineering leaders in high emission industries such as steel and cement will become the starting point for the whole industry to achieve carbon neutralization. Sinoma International Engineering Co.Ltd(600970) , Sinosteel Engineering & Technology Co.Ltd(000928) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) are recommended.
Energy saving and carbon reduction is one of the key points of carbon neutralization scheme. The construction industry has a large space for carbon reduction. Steel structure / fabricated buildings, photovoltaic integrated buildings, whole house intelligent management and energy conservation have become one of the development priorities of the industry, and there is a large market space. Focus on Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Yuanda residential workers, Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) . []
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) : pipe demand is expected to rise in 2022 it is suggested to pay attention to the upward logic of the bottom of the industry
It is recommended to invest in the relevant cement, waterproof early cycle and pipe sectors with the benefit of financial advance and special bonds. The special bond investment focuses on the construction of water conservancy pipelines. The demand for pipes is expected to rise in 2022. It is recommended to pay attention to the upward logic of the bottom of the industry and recommend Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) .
At present, the valuation of the cement sector is at a low position. It is suggested to focus on grasping the bottom layout opportunity. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) cement leader in East China, Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) improved corporate governance, and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) industry leader. The logic of increasing the concentration of water reducing agent has been strongly confirmed, which is expected to benefit from the recovery of infrastructure construction. It is recommended Lets Holdings Group Co.Ltd(002398) . In addition, waterproof and concrete products also deserve attention. []
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) : fiscal policy! Continue to be optimistic about cement, pipe and other pre and medium cycle varieties
The financial data in December showed that the medium and long-term loans of residents and enterprises were weak, indicating that the real financing demand was still weak. The recovery of social finance growth was mainly due to the advance issuance of special bonds and the acceleration of fiscal expenditure. The increase of downward pressure on the economy requires further efforts to broaden money and stabilize growth. In addition to the restoration of the post real estate industrial chain, we believe that with the enhancement of the demand for stable growth of policies, key areas such as water conservancy, transportation and municipal administration in infrastructure construction will continue to make efforts, and pipeline reconstruction and urban rail transit are expected to become structural highlights. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the pre and medium cycle varieties with low valuation such as cement and pipe materials.
In terms of bulk building materials: under the force of fiscal policy, the growth rate of infrastructure picked up, the policies of affordable housing and guaranteed delivery housing stabilized the expectation of real estate investment. Based on the peak staggering and the strengthening of industry self-discipline, we estimate that the supply capacity of the industry after eliminating the peak staggering will decrease by 0.1% year-on-year in 2022. With the support of stable investment on demand, the cement boom can still remain high. The dividend yield of 5 ~ 9% in 2021 makes the current price earnings ratio of 6 ~ 7 times have room to repair. It is suggested to pay attention to Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) with strong performance certainty, bright spots in the extension of medium and long-term industrial chain, Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) with high dividend yield, and Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) which are expected to benefit from the integration of the northern market and great business elasticity.
In terms of decoration and building materials: we expect the infrastructure chain to grow steadily and counter cyclical adjustment to boost demand. Recently, the central government mentioned that the new special bonds focus on water conservancy, transportation, municipal infrastructure construction, affordable housing projects and other fields. The Ministry of water resources mentioned the implementation of major national water network projects. We expect that the construction of underground pipe network and sponge city will bring sustainable increment during the 14th five year plan period. The completion end of the real estate remained resilient, but the new construction and sales remained weak. In terms of real estate, the easing signal has been gradually released, and the bottom of the policy has been found. We expect that the financing end of subsequent real estate enterprises and consumers is expected to be slightly relaxed. In addition, accelerating the construction of affordable rental housing during the 14th Five Year Plan period will bring some increment. Previously, the valuation of the decoration building materials sector has been in the lower position of the historical center due to the slowdown in demand, the rise of raw materials and cash flow pressure. Under the relaxed expectation of the margin of real estate, the decline of the high cost of raw materials, the gradual release of bad debt provision and cash flow risk expectation, the overall sector is expected to usher in performance and valuation repair. It is recommended to pay attention to Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , and China Liansu, Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) . []
