The trend of the three major A-share indexes was divided today, and the Shanghai index closed up 0.80% to close at 3569.91 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19% to close at 14391.39 points; The gem index fell 0.82% to close at 3144.33. The market turnover was close to 1.2 trillion yuan, the number of falling stocks exceeded 3200, most of the industry sectors closed down, covid-19 detection concept stocks fell sharply, and the airport, coal industry and banking sectors strengthened.
Today’s news:
1. The CSRC makes a sound! Promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market and pay more attention to the expected guidance! Clarify the reform tasks in seven aspects
2. Cut interest rates to detonate a shares! Here comes the opportunity to copy the bottom? Rapid interpretation of 13 public funds
3. Attention of 600000 shareholders! Your stock allotment will lose nearly 6% if you operate improperly! These companies are also on the way
4. Shanghai: implement several policies for the development of fuel cell vehicle industry and promote the planning and construction of hydrogen refueling stations in the city
5. A big wave of Bank net profit growth exceeded 20%! Institutions: banking stocks are expected to rebound
For the future market trend, institutions have expressed their views.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that whether the stock index can rebound continuously in the future still depends on the sustainability of OTC incremental funds and leading hot spots. It is expected that the short-term stock index will continue to fluctuate slightly around the annual line. Investors are advised to pay close attention to the Internet, software development, communication and other technology industries in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that on the whole, people’s doubts about the spring market are mainly due to two concerns: one is that the policy is difficult to hedge the downward pressure of the macro economy, and the other is that the micro capital is no longer abundant at the beginning of the year. The steady growth policy has been intensively implemented. Based on the historical steady growth policy, the market will eventually rise. In the first quarter, there are often more funds entering the market, which comes from the peak season of employee year-end bonus distribution and asset management product distribution. ③ The adjustment at the beginning of the year does not change the market trend in spring, the structure is balanced, and attention is paid to the undervalued large finance + new and old infrastructure with policy force.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that since the beginning of the year, A-Shares have fluctuated greatly under the resonance of many factors, such as less than expected incremental funds, insufficient financing demand, investors’ less than expected sense of steady growth, a sharp rise in US bond yields, and the continuous epidemic in China. Subsequently, the convening of the local two sessions may strengthen the market’s expectations for steady growth. If the central bank’s monetary policy is further substantially relaxed, the steady growth force after the two sessions is expected to bring a turnaround for a shares. Considering the Spring Festival effect of a shares, there may be a structural rebound in A-Shares in the short term, which can follow the industry layout with performance forecast exceeding expectations.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that the market has suffered turbulence since the beginning of the year, but it is already at the bottom. On the one hand, the undervalued repair of financial and real estate sectors will continue to be realized after fluctuations. On the other hand, the adjustment space of popular tracks such as the “new semi army” has also been relatively sufficient. At present, a wave of market similar to “mini version 2014” is brewing, and its timing depends on the wide credit process: 1) the market is in the time window of “stable growth” and marginal “wide credit”, and the core logic of the market continues to be fulfilled and strengthened: Although the new social finance in December 2021 is slightly lower than expected, the stock social finance is still 10.3% higher than the previous value, and the M2 is 9.0% higher than the expected 8.7%, It shows that the credit environment is still improving. In addition, the new special debt of RMB 1.46 trillion has been issued in advance, and major projects in some provinces and cities have also been issued in advance compared with previous years. Social finance is expected to further recover in January. Various signals and data are constantly verifying the direction of marginal “wide credit”. 2) At the time point, the index market in 2014 was not officially established until the central bank cut interest rates on November 21, 2014. At present, we also need to wait for signals such as social financing volume, reserve requirement reduction and interest rate reduction. However, from the time point of layout, just as the market finally proved that every adjustment from August to October 2014 has become an excellent buying point, it is still in the window of layout on the left. 3) However, the difference between now and 2014 is that, on the one hand, 2014 is a comprehensive and systematic relaxation. At present, under the general tone of “no speculation in real estate and housing” and “no promotion in infrastructure”, the intensity and space of policy easing are relatively limited, which is more likely to be phased and underpinned relaxation. On the other hand, in 2014, it gradually evolved into a round of leveraged cattle. At present, the market leverage is weak, and institutional funds are still the dominant force in the market. Therefore, the final deduction form is similar to “mini version 2014”, and the time and rhythm depend on the process of wide credit.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) indicates that the watershed is ready to go after the Spring Festival. Since the beginning of the year, A-Shares have been disturbed by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the valuation adjustment of the high boom track, and the characteristics of the “spring lack” market are more obvious. Near the Spring Festival, in view of the uncertainty of overseas news during the holiday, some off-site funds stay on the sidelines, and the market may be light. The watershed or after the Spring Festival. At that time, the path of the Fed’s interest rate hike will be clearer, and China’s liquidity will remain abundant. At the same time, the steady growth policy related to infrastructure and real estate investment continued to work, which became the driving force for A-Shares to get out of the “cold spring”. Considering that China’s monetary policy is loose and the valuation of A-Shares is reasonable on the whole, incremental foreign investment is also expected to continue to flow into the A-share market. In terms of configuration, the “undervalued blue chip” is the main one: first, it is related to traditional infrastructure, such as banks and building materials; Second, the real estate and its upstream and downstream industrial chain benefiting from the marginal improvement of real estate policy. Focus on topics: digital economy, meta universe, traditional Chinese medicine, etc.
Guosheng Securities believes that with the full force of the steady growth policy, the credit conditions have been stabilized in a real sense, and it is necessary to further relax the policy in the future. In the short term, the liquidity risk of real estate enterprises remains, and the superposition of the impact of the high base in 2021 may cause periodic disturbance to the steady growth sector; However, from the perspective of fundamental trends, the current is the initial stage of the comprehensive development of the steady growth policy. The credit conditions have been stabilized in a real sense, and the rise of value may only be the beginning. With the digestion of growth track valuation, it is expected to open a wave of resonance market after the Spring Festival, and steady growth is still the largest beta main line in the next quarter.
